Reference class forecasting

Forecasting GDP Now that we know the timely indicators to help us predict the GDP. We can look into forecasting the GDP and how it is done using the BMC. If we go back to the WEC and take a look at the relevance of each indicator. Here we can see that indicators like PMI which we discussed are highly recommended for investors to look at. Along with the survey column to see what analyst have forecasted for this specific indicator. If we take a look at PMI for example we can right click on the survey for that indicator and see how that was formulated by the economists. The ECOS (Economic Estimates) function shows the exact workings of how this is done. We can see if the estimates were being hopeful for the month or pessimistic by the actual results right next to it. A key part of forecasting are the people who do the estimating, they are the economist. They do two things that are very important to the whole process. First they maintain the estimates of what they believe the economic indicator values will be and second they form opinions on the longer-term future on the most important statistics in the financial world like GDP, inflation, and unemployment. The later is really important…

surprise that I got this one. My last result was woo. Woo is in someone who loves “the challenge of meeting new people and winning them over.” I can see this in myself and it came with no surprises. I am always the person who will go over to the new person in a group and befriend them and make them feel comfortable. That makes me feel good inside and I love helping people out as well. Sometimes it can be a challenge. When interviewing for a job, you need to be able to read people and win them…

1.0 Introduction Forecasting refers to the prediction of the future with the highest possibility of accuracy given that each and every information is provided, this including any historical data and any information involving future events that may ultimately influence the forecasts. (Hyndman, 2009). Expounding further, forecasting may refer to the process where an event in the future is estimated through forward past data casting, where the data is combined systematically in a manner that is…

current features, design of new products or services. Product or Service Design is strategically important to win the customer’s approval to get increased demand. Translates customer’s wants and needs into profit. Example there wasn’t a demand for FB phone. A company will strategically be ahead by modifying what already exits, through innovation (page 134). Exponential Smoothing: A weighted averaging method based on previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error. Seasonal…

Tanglewood Case 2: Planning Human Resource (HR) planning is the process of forecasting Tanglewood’s future employment needs. Once the employment needs have been forecasted an action plan will be developed to ensure the filling of these needs in a way that aligns with the organization staffing strategy (Heneman, Judge, & Kammeyer-Mueller, 2006, p. 91). The plan will analyze the employment environment to determine how many employees will be needed in the future. Then an assessment of the…

Most organizations think of Human Resources (HR) as a department that makes employment decisions, strictly administrative functionalities. HR has evolved over the years and has now become more of a strategic partner rather than the sole purpose of recruitment, hiring, and termination. However, when it comes to employment services, the Human Resources department must be well-rounded and knowledgeable in all facets of the process. Human resources is no longer used exclusively for hiring…

Strengths Sometimes it can be difficult to decide yourself what your strengths are. However, I was able to take the Gallup Strength Finder test, and it really helped me with realizing my assets. Some strengths listed really did describe me well, while some others I had a hard time seeing. These skills can be used throughout many things in my life such as school, on the court, and even coaching. I plan to bring these characteristics into my future job, and I plan to continue developing my…

“Regression analysis is a very effective quantitative forecasting technique for short-, medium and long-range time horizons and can be easily updated.[i]” A simple linear regression model is a mathematical relationship between two quantitative variables, i.e. X and Y. Y is the variable we seek to predict based on the other variable X, for which we have information. Regression can predict Scanim’s personnel requirements for inbound operators at varying levels of Chrysler auto sales. In…

unconventional French oil executive who developed the scenario process. His success in scenario planning enabled the Royal Dutch/Shell oil giant to anticipate both of these oil catastrophes. Why scenarios Pierre Wack agreed that straightforward forecasts may be very accurate, however he believed that is why they are dangerous. As Peter Drucker said, “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” (Harvard Business Review, 1985, p.150) Such…

An Artificial neural network model for risk impacts on cash flow forecast in construction industry Key Words: Risk Factors, Risk Impacts, Model, Artificial Neural Network, Cash Flow Forecast Area of Research Cash flow forecasting is a vital contributing factor in construction industry where lead to the high rate of insolvencies. Risks involved with construction industry play significant role for the variation of forecasted and actual cash flow. Identification of risks and risk assessment are…