Reference class forecasting

In Australia the government requires the testing of students in Years 3, 5, 7 and 9 annually. They are tested on several aspects of English and Mathematics each year in order to assess their strengths and weaknesses in reading, writing, language conventions - such as spelling, grammar, and punctuation - and numeracy. “NAPLAN” stands for National Assessment Program - Literacy and Numeracy. All students take the same test for their individual year level, and each stage/year gets progressively more…

This topic addressed various problems that arise in the business industry and how to resolve problems through choosing the appropriate forecasting model and techniques for a given situation. One major problem could be determining which forecasting model should a new startup company use when they have insufficient data. Another common problem that is faced by large companies involves separating out critical information from other irrelevant data to generate profitable forecasts. Also, deciding on…

I have been in the healthcare arena for more than fifteen years and our text defined, forecasting as “analyzing past revenue and/or cost trends and behavior as well as gather permanent information from sources throughout an organization about any changes in operations and production” (Edinburgh 2011). Health forecasting is very similar, it evaluates or predicts the future in health science conditions. This information is needed to provide aid in facilitating preventive medicine as well as…

my themes, Restorative describes a problem solver- someone who enjoys fixing or reviving things. Initially, I did not see myself as Restorative because I associated being a problem solver with Mathematics and Science. However, in my 3D and 2D art class I am continually finding solutions to aesthetic problems. For example, I had to make a sculpture using paper bags, masking tape, and twine. Nevertheless, these materials had to be utilized in a way that was transformative. The materials could not…

is much more difficult to estimate the expected sales of each individual product (Novak, 2006) (Stellwagen, 2015). For example, a computer electronics manufacturing firm should forecast the total expected sales of personal computers instead of forecasting the sales of computers with different specifications…

occurrence of a black swan event—one that is deemed highly improbable, but causes great consequences (Taleb). The Black Swan provides a philosophical analysis on the value of factual and historical knowledge, the fallacies associated with prediction and forecasting, and the role of serendipity in the advancement of society. Through anecdotes and examples, Taleb instructs readers to…

Introduction This essay is assigned to discuss the role of “Futures” methodologies such as Scenario planning, Forecasting or Alternatives methodology and the various drivers of change in a global perspective on tourism and hospitality business. This essay is going to discuss what has already been researched by different researchers on the topic of future tourism as well as what has been learned by these discussions. The issues that has been brought to light in regard to their knowledge used in…

operation for three years and has been a popular destination for tourists and locals in the country. To better forecast future sales and plan for future growth proprietor Theotis Jones has provided the following sales data analysis and develop a forecasting model. C’mon Back Restaurant has seen a 6% growth year over year in the first three years of operation. This is see in the adjacent chart of yearly sales per year. Looking over the data we can see that there is a seasonal pattern that…

Strength All the data obtained from this experiment is plotted on the graph. The accuracy and precision can be determined from the graph. Based on the graph , as the line do not pass the origin , it can be deducted that the result is fairly accurate. Since there are few outliers on the graph , the precision of this graph is moderate. Accuracy of the graph is affected by systematic errors while the precision is affected by random errors. A few measures had been taken prior in getting more…

The book “The Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver, so far has emphasize the skill of using probability and statics which is a practical art of mathematical model building. I believe Silver takes a big-picture approach using statics, combining sources of data (ex. Baseball), sound statics and analysis, and historical data which is tested by many researchers and experts who have significant roles in the media. In the first six chapters, Silver covers the topics; the failure to predict the 2008…