SCMS 7110 Exam 2 Solutions Essay

1795 Words Oct 25th, 2014 8 Pages
Question 1

4 / 4 points
The overall upward or downward pattern of the data in an annual time series will be contained in the ____________ component.

trend

cyclical

irregular

seasonal
Question 2

4 / 4 points
When using the exponentially weighted moving average for purposes of forecasting rather than smoothing,

the previous smoothed value becomes the forecast.

the current smoothed value becomes the forecast.

the next smoothed value becomes the forecast.

None of the above.
Question 3

4 / 4 points
The following is the list of MAD statistics for each of the models you have estimated from time-series data:
Model
MAD
Linear Trend
1.38
Quadratic Trend
1.22
Exponential Trend
1.39
AR(2)
0.71
Based on the MAD criterion,
…show more content…
where Y = Sale price of property in thousands of dollars X1 = Size of property in thousands of square feet X2 = 1 if property located near cove, 0 if not Using the data collected for the 20 properties, the following partial output obtained from Microsoft Excel is shown: SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.985
R Square 0.970
Standard Error 9.5
Observations 20 ANOVA df SS MS F Signif F
Regression 5 28324 5664 62.2 0.0001
Residual 14 1279 91
Total 19 29063 Coeff StdError t Stat P-value
Intercept - 32.1 35.7 – 0.90 0.3834
Size 12.2 5.9 2.05 0.0594
Cove – 104.3 53.5 – 1.95 0.0715
Size*Cove 17.0 8.5 1.99 0.0661
SizeSq – 0.3 0.2 – 1.28 0.2204
SizeSq*Cove – 0.3 0.3 – 1.13 0.2749 Referring to Table 15-3, is the overall model statistically adequate at a 0.05 level of significance for predicting sale price (Y)?

No, since some of the t tests for the individual variables are not significant.

No, since the standard deviation of the model is fairly large.

Yes, since none of the beta-estimates are equal to 0.

Yes, since the

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