# SCMS 7110 Exam 2 Solutions Essay

4 / 4 points

The overall upward or downward pattern of the data in an annual time series will be contained in the ____________ component.

trend

cyclical

irregular

seasonal

Question 2

4 / 4 points

When using the exponentially weighted moving average for purposes of forecasting rather than smoothing,

the previous smoothed value becomes the forecast.

the current smoothed value becomes the forecast.

the next smoothed value becomes the forecast.

None of the above.

Question 3

4 / 4 points

The following is the list of MAD statistics for each of the models you have estimated from time-series data:

Model

MAD

Linear Trend

1.38

Quadratic Trend

1.22

Exponential Trend

1.39

AR(2)

0.71

Based on the MAD criterion,

*…show more content…*

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.985

R Square 0.970

Standard Error 9.5

Observations 20 ANOVA df SS MS F Signif F

Regression 5 28324 5664 62.2 0.0001

Residual 14 1279 91

Total 19 29063 Coeff StdError t Stat P-value

Intercept - 32.1 35.7 – 0.90 0.3834

Size 12.2 5.9 2.05 0.0594

Cove – 104.3 53.5 – 1.95 0.0715

Size*Cove 17.0 8.5 1.99 0.0661

SizeSq – 0.3 0.2 – 1.28 0.2204

SizeSq*Cove – 0.3 0.3 – 1.13 0.2749 Referring to Table 15-3, is the overall model statistically adequate at a 0.05 level of significance for predicting sale price (Y)?

No, since some of the t tests for the individual variables are not significant.

No, since the standard deviation of the model is fairly large.

Yes, since none of the beta-estimates are equal to 0.

Yes, since the