Granger causality

1.1. Granger causality test 1.1.1. Pre-crisis period from 2005 to 2007 Since we aim to compare the causal relationship between stock price and exchange rate before and after the 2008 global financial crisis, we analyze the Granger causality test results in different subperiods separately first. Before the test, we use final prediction error (FPE) criterion to select lag orders. During the pre-crisis period from 2005 to 2007, an optimal lag length of one was selected for all the seven markets. The Granger causality test results for pre-crisis period are shown in table 4. Table 4 Granger causality test results for pre-crisis period from 2005 to 2007 Market Ho F-value Prob>F Coefficient P>|t| China ΔlnEXt≠>ΔlnSt 0.19 0.8233 ΔlnSt(-1) 0.973 ΔlnEXt(-1) 0.535 ΔlnSt≠>ΔlnEXt 0.10 0.9025 ΔlnSt(-1) 0.927 ΔlnEXt(-1) 0.662 Taiwan ΔlnEXt≠>ΔlnSt 3.20*** 0.0415 ΔlnSt(-1) 0.255 ΔlnEXt(-1) 0.065 ΔlnSt≠>ΔlnEXt 1.77 0.1714 ΔlnSt(-1) 0.214 ΔlnEXt(-1) 0.306 Singapore ΔlnEXt≠>ΔlnSt 5.55*** 0.0041…

6.5 Granger Causality Granger causality statistics determine whether past values of one variable helps to predict another variable. For example, if the lagged value of the independent variable X, help in predicting the value of the explanatory variable Y_(t+1), then X granger causes the Y. On the other hand, if the independent variable X does not help to predict Y, then the coefficients on the lags of X will all be zero in the reduced form Y equation. 7. Empirical results 7.1 Optimal lag…

The null hypothesis of this test is that the past p values of X are not helpful to predict Y (X does not Granger cause Y). The alternative hypothesis is that the past p values of X are useful to predict Y (X Granger causes Y). p is the lag length of the Granger causality test and the results of the test depend on the chosen lag lengths (p). Therefore, different lag lengths (6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 lag lengths) are used in this study. These lag lengths represent a three-year horizon. The following…

economic growth in developing countries. However, there seems to be no agreement with regard to the direction of causality between these two variables. This study focuses on the causal effect of FDI in Brazilian’s economic growth based on an econometric study with panel data collected during the last three decades, which was a phase in which many of the development countries introduced various political, financial and economic…

The Gift By R. W. Thompson 1. "Once upon a time, there was a little boy named Danny. One day he found a magic lamp that would give him anything he wanted. 2 As Steven Jacobs begins his story, the swings in the park come quickly to a stop. The merry-go-rounds stop twirling and the see-saws creak to a halt. The play area of the park becomes very quiet, for the children have come to sit under the giant maple tree and as the shadows grow, hear their daily stories from the blind storyteller of…

In the Sorcerer's Stone, Harry Potter is revealed to a new world learning the truths about who is he is, and the world around him. He makes trusted friends and enemies, and in the end gives his life for the betterment of the world. It starts with young boy, unaware of His magical Powers or his history is brought into the hidden world of Magic and Wizards. For most his life was tucked away behind his almost cruel Aunt and Uncle, unaware of what he is and especially who he is. Hagrid, a large…

It is important to note that Rowling lets Harry make mistakes and succumb to the temptation of using the Unforgivable Curses. The key to this honest understanding of how and why Harry makes his decisions comes from Rowling’s ability to create believable situations where Harry makes the believable choice, as Lana A. Whited and M. Katherine Grimes describe in “What Would Harry Do? J.K. Rowling and Lawrence Kohlberg’s Theories of Moral Development”: “Although Harry’s dilemmas involve creatures and…

In the book, “Harry Potter and The Sorcerer's Stone” the author uses conflict as the main literary element of the story, in the current event of a school shooting in Oregon it also connects to conflict. In the book, Rowling uses different characters and emotions to create a conflict between them. In this book Voldemort is after the stone and if he got it he would control the world of wizards and make an Elixir of life. As stated by the author, “If Snape gets hold of the Stone, Voldemort's coming…

In the novel Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, Hermione Granger is a muggle born witch who is constantly mocked by other students for her know-it-all persona. She acts like it does not bother her when it really makes her feel embarrassed, but her strongest most important character trait is her intelligence. Hermione is confident in herself because she knows that she is an amazing witch with many different talents, including spell casting and potion brewing, this confidence leads others…

The idea of free will as an illusion has become a hot topic in neuroscience, still even nearly twenty years after this article was penned, due to the controversy it attracts regarding morals and self-determination. Tom Wolfe argues, in a rather snarky tone consistently seen throughout the article, that the concept of a self is dead—much like Nietzsche’s preceding declaration that God is dead. However, the concept of self is not yet dead in neuroscience like Wolfe predicted. Rather, more…