Bias In Critical Thinking
Availability heuristic explains the mental shortcut of the brain that judges probability of events by how quick and easy an event is recalled. There are eleven biases that influence us and two that explain availability heuristic.
Bias one is ease of recall and references how the commonness of an event makes it easier for the mind to recall instances of that event. Many people commit the availability heuristic by tempting fate. …show more content…
When we recall subjects from our memory easier than other things due to commonality and easier strategies. For instance, when words are easy to recall we overestimate their frequency. Retailers try to find locations that are convenient for customers when looking for a product, and locations that maximize traffic of consumers to increase sales. Many of us assume that our recollections represent the events that occur outside of our experience.
Representative heuristics are used when making judgements about the probability of an event under uncertainty. There are five biases that make up this heuristic. The third bias is insensitivity to base rate, which is when people ignore statistical data and use general or irrelevant information, or they focus on new information and ignore prior information. Many entrepreneurs spend more time picturing their success, and little time on the base rate for failure.
Insensitivity to sample size bias is the fourth bias. This happens when people judge the probability of a sample statistic and do not consider the sample size. Sample size is core in statistics, but not part of our intuition. For example, it is more likely to flip a coin three times and have heads show 60% half of the time, compared to a coin flipped ten times will produce 60% only 17% of the …show more content…
Hindsight bias is when an event has occurred, to think that the event was predictable even though there was little evidence to predict it. For example, when a football team is down 35-31 with seconds left in the game and they throw a pass to the corner of the end zone and it fails; we say “ I knew it was a bad play.” The curse of knowledge is a cognitive bias that an individual communicating with other individuals, unknowingly assumes that the others have the background to understand. An example of this is when a product designer overestimates the average person’s ability to to master high tech