Candidate ID: gwf613
The Modeling of a Potential Smallpox Outbreak at my Local High School
Introduction
Up until 1980, the world lived in fear of a deadly, disfiguring disease. Smallpox, a highly infectious disease, produces symptoms such as fever, postulation, and rash, potentially leaving the victim scarred from scratching his or her blisters. It is transmitted through inhalation of fluid droplets produced by actions such as sneezing and coughing as well as contact with a skin legion of an infected person (Funk and Wagnalls). The significance of the death toll of Smallpox is hard to fathom because the disease is suspected to have been around since 30 A.D. but is estimated to be in the millions. Luckily, Edward Jenner created an effective …show more content…
Once the infection begins, a significant decrease is represented through the curve. Once the entirety of the population has shifted to either being or has recovered. For the infected curve, the population begins at a small number on the y-axis, and follows an increase to its maximum value of a quadratic, where it decreases after that point. Eventually, the number will reach zero, meaning that there are no infected people in the population. The recovered number follows a logistical growth model, meaning that it starts at zero, with a slow increase, until it grows at a much faster rate. After maintaining that rate for a period of time, it will slow down once more until it reaches the entirety of the population is …show more content…
"Modeling potential responses to smallpox as a bioterrorist weapon. (Research)." Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 7, no. 6, 2001, p. 959+. Science in Context, http://link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A80951229/SCIC?u=nclive&xid=d8e3e654. Accessed 19 Dec. 2017. Nesse, Hans. “Global Health - SIR Model (with vaccine).” Public ASU, www.public.asu.edu/~hnesse/classes/sirv.html.
“Smallpox.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 19 Dec. 2016, www.cdc.gov/smallpox/bioterrorism/public/threat.html.
"Smallpox." Funk & Wagnalls New World Encyclopedia, 2016, p. 1p. 1. EBSCOhost, search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&AuthType=ip,custuid&custid=s8455861&db=funk&AN=SM129900&site=ehost-live&scope=site.
Smith, David , and Lang Moore. “The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model.” The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model | Mathematical Association of America, Mathematical Association of America, Dec. 2004, www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model.
The Modeling of a Potential Smallpox Outbreak at my Local High School
Introduction
Up until 1980, the world lived in fear of a deadly, disfiguring disease. Smallpox, a highly infectious disease, produces symptoms such as fever, postulation, and rash, potentially leaving the victim scarred from scratching his or her blisters. It is transmitted through inhalation of fluid droplets produced by actions such as sneezing and coughing as well as contact with a skin legion of an infected person (Funk and Wagnalls). The significance of the death toll of Smallpox is hard to fathom because the disease is suspected to have been around since 30 A.D. but is estimated to be in the millions. Luckily, Edward Jenner created an effective …show more content…
Once the infection begins, a significant decrease is represented through the curve. Once the entirety of the population has shifted to either being or has recovered. For the infected curve, the population begins at a small number on the y-axis, and follows an increase to its maximum value of a quadratic, where it decreases after that point. Eventually, the number will reach zero, meaning that there are no infected people in the population. The recovered number follows a logistical growth model, meaning that it starts at zero, with a slow increase, until it grows at a much faster rate. After maintaining that rate for a period of time, it will slow down once more until it reaches the entirety of the population is …show more content…
"Modeling potential responses to smallpox as a bioterrorist weapon. (Research)." Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 7, no. 6, 2001, p. 959+. Science in Context, http://link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A80951229/SCIC?u=nclive&xid=d8e3e654. Accessed 19 Dec. 2017. Nesse, Hans. “Global Health - SIR Model (with vaccine).” Public ASU, www.public.asu.edu/~hnesse/classes/sirv.html.
“Smallpox.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 19 Dec. 2016, www.cdc.gov/smallpox/bioterrorism/public/threat.html.
"Smallpox." Funk & Wagnalls New World Encyclopedia, 2016, p. 1p. 1. EBSCOhost, search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&AuthType=ip,custuid&custid=s8455861&db=funk&AN=SM129900&site=ehost-live&scope=site.
Smith, David , and Lang Moore. “The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model.” The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model | Mathematical Association of America, Mathematical Association of America, Dec. 2004, www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model.