# Essay On Dynamic System Theory

2059 Words 9 Pages
Register to read the introduction… Evolutionary processes have not given us the mental ability to interpret properly the dynamic behaviour of those complex systems in which we are now embedded.” - Forrester, 1973 * Another main reason why we need SDM is that we now have to face Complex systems and if we need to make an improvement to the same one cannot change one part without a certain risk of affecting other remote parts. Thus we are obliged to understand the whole system.

4. System Dynamic Modelling Approach
System Dynamic Modelling provides an approach to analyse complex real world problems over a period of time. In this approach, the modeler attempts to identify the patterns of behaviour of the system measured by certain parameters of the system, and then build a model that can mimic the patterns. Once the model is built, it can be used for testing by altering a system’s behaviour.
Time paths –
A critical step in examining a system is to identify its key patterns of behavior -called "time paths." They describe how a system behaves over time. There are various types of time paths that a system follows – linear, exponential, S-shaped, Oscillatory, etc.
Stocks and Flows
Involve non-linear relationships e. Involve both hard and soft data

Example: System Dynamic Modelling applied to public health issues
Let us take the example of system dynamic modelling applied to public health. Below figure shows a broader view of population health using SDM approach.

When applied to the issue of chronic disease prevention, an SDM takes into account disease outcomes, health and risk behaviours, environmental factors and health related delivery systems. This model explains how a hypothetical set of people affected by chronic diseases may be affected by two types of prevention - upstream prevention of disease onset and downstream prevention of disease complication. 1. We model the essential causal structure and policy inputs as below. There is gradually changing net accumulation of two flows: inflow of disease onset and outflow of deaths

2. Here we map the simulation output over 50 years, in three scenarios (Status Quo, More complications prevention and More Onset Prevention), for four variables – a. Onset prevention fraction b. Complication Prevention fraction c. People with disease d. Deaths from

## Related Documents

• ###### System Dynamics Case Study

There are four main sources which influenced the direction of this project most, they are: “Introduction to System Dynamics,” System Dynamics Society, [Online]. Available: http://www.systemdynamics.org/what-is-s/. [Accessed November 8th 2016] K. B. Korb and A. E. Nicholson, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition, New York: CRC Press, 2010 J. D. Sterman, “System dynamics modeling: Tools for learning in a complex world,” California management review, vol. 43, no. 4, p. 8–25, 2001 2001…

Words: 831 - Pages: 4
• ###### Bayesian Network And System Dynamics Theory

of using Bayesian networks. Furthermore, they discussed the utilisation of this methodology for causal modelling. This source is important at the initial stage of the project as it contributes to the decision-making process at the modelling technique selection stage. However, it is not as important as the other two sources after it was decided not to be used as the modelling method for the system model of this project. Bayesian networks are diagrams for uncertain interpretation in which the nodes…

Words: 1068 - Pages: 5
• ###### Earth And Space Sciences

Part of Content Description: Content descriptors Earth and Space Sciences: Earth is part of a system of planets orbiting around a star (the Sun) (VCSSU078). Elaboration: Modelling the distance between Earth, other planets in the solar system and the sun. Analysing and evaluating: Compare data with predictions and use as evidence in developing explanations (VCSIS086). Elaboration: Sharing ideas as to whether observations match predictions, and discussing possible reasons for predictions being…

Words: 1085 - Pages: 5