Essay On Dynamic System Theory
4. System Dynamic Modelling Approach
System Dynamic Modelling provides an approach to analyse complex real world problems over a period of time. In this approach, the modeler attempts to identify the patterns of behaviour of the system measured by certain parameters of the system, and then build a model that can mimic the patterns. Once the model is built, it can be used for testing by altering a system’s behaviour.
Time paths –
A critical step in examining a system is to identify its key patterns of behavior -called "time paths." They describe how a system behaves over time. There are various types of time paths that a system follows – linear, exponential, S-shaped, Oscillatory, etc.
Stocks and Flows …show more content…
Involve non-linear relationships e. Involve both hard and soft data
Example: System Dynamic Modelling applied to public health issues
Let us take the example of system dynamic modelling applied to public health. Below figure shows a broader view of population health using SDM approach.
When applied to the issue of chronic disease prevention, an SDM takes into account disease outcomes, health and risk behaviours, environmental factors and health related delivery systems. This model explains how a hypothetical set of people affected by chronic diseases may be affected by two types of prevention - upstream prevention of disease onset and downstream prevention of disease complication. 1. We model the essential causal structure and policy inputs as below. There is gradually changing net accumulation of two flows: inflow of disease onset and outflow of deaths
2. Here we map the simulation output over 50 years, in three scenarios (Status Quo, More complications prevention and More Onset Prevention), for four variables – a. Onset prevention fraction b. Complication Prevention fraction c. People with disease d. Deaths from