Try this:
Look at these six possible causes of death:
Ebola
Heart disease
Tornado
Shark attack
Lightning strike
Plane crash
Now force rank them on which is the most probable to happen to a person in the USA, 1 being most probable, and 6 being least probable.
According to www.psych2go.net, People are more likely to think that something is more dangerous and immediate to them if they have been hearing about it a lot. For example, Ebola. there were only around 10 confirmed cases of Ebola in the US. But, almost everyone probably would have put Ebola on the top three most probable on their list. The thing is, Ebola is one of the least probable things to die from in the US. So, if you make a list of the things you are most afraid …show more content…
They conducted an experiment, where they asked many people "If a random word is taken from an English text, is it more likely that the word starts with a K, or that K is the third letter?" most people guessed that it was more likely that it would start with k, but really it was more probable that it would have k as the third letter. Think about this: right after nine eleven, almost everyone probably would have been extremely afraid of terrorist attacks, and they would have thought that a terrorist attack was about to happen to them. if you think about this, it makes perfect sense. so, I completely agree with Kahneman and …show more content…
They recalled, say, shark attacks being talked about in the news, so they rated shark attacks as one of the top or middle ones. in this situation, their brain is doing something called the availability heuristic. taking what is available, and turning it into answers and logic. The reason I think that people guessed right for many of these is that some of the things that are right, are still exaggerated. Things like heart disease happen a lot, and people hear about them. There are ads in the newspaper and on tv about medicine for heart disease, or even more simple things like a common cold. so, the availability heuristic is not always wrong or bad. thinking about the above example, It is much easier to think of things that start with k than to think of things that have k as the third letter. you will immediately think “Kangaroo, kit” not “Acknowledge, ask”. but, to say that words that start with k are more common is no
Look at these six possible causes of death:
Ebola
Heart disease
Tornado
Shark attack
Lightning strike
Plane crash
Now force rank them on which is the most probable to happen to a person in the USA, 1 being most probable, and 6 being least probable.
According to www.psych2go.net, People are more likely to think that something is more dangerous and immediate to them if they have been hearing about it a lot. For example, Ebola. there were only around 10 confirmed cases of Ebola in the US. But, almost everyone probably would have put Ebola on the top three most probable on their list. The thing is, Ebola is one of the least probable things to die from in the US. So, if you make a list of the things you are most afraid …show more content…
They conducted an experiment, where they asked many people "If a random word is taken from an English text, is it more likely that the word starts with a K, or that K is the third letter?" most people guessed that it was more likely that it would start with k, but really it was more probable that it would have k as the third letter. Think about this: right after nine eleven, almost everyone probably would have been extremely afraid of terrorist attacks, and they would have thought that a terrorist attack was about to happen to them. if you think about this, it makes perfect sense. so, I completely agree with Kahneman and …show more content…
They recalled, say, shark attacks being talked about in the news, so they rated shark attacks as one of the top or middle ones. in this situation, their brain is doing something called the availability heuristic. taking what is available, and turning it into answers and logic. The reason I think that people guessed right for many of these is that some of the things that are right, are still exaggerated. Things like heart disease happen a lot, and people hear about them. There are ads in the newspaper and on tv about medicine for heart disease, or even more simple things like a common cold. so, the availability heuristic is not always wrong or bad. thinking about the above example, It is much easier to think of things that start with k than to think of things that have k as the third letter. you will immediately think “Kangaroo, kit” not “Acknowledge, ask”. but, to say that words that start with k are more common is no