Research Question
The program logic model long-term outcome is the change in behavior of the population to reduce the number of drivers under the influence. While in the short run the main concern (outcome) is to reduce the number of accidents due to drivers under the influence.
In this sense, this evaluation will try to answer the question of whether the Lei Seca Operation in Rio de Janeiro has an immediate and/or continuous negative effect on the number of accidents resulting from drivers under the influence.
Research Design
To be able to assess the program impact it is believed that the basic model to follow is the simple Single Interrupted Time-series (SITS) design. Hence, this type of design will provide evidence and an estimate of …show more content…
Particularly because time series design permits the evaluator to find the effect of a public intervention in a society were controlled experiments are impossible due to ethical or feasibility reasons. In addition, this type of design is mostly used in initial evaluations of public programs and improvement of their implementation.
Regression Equation
For the periods before the Lei Seca, most of the studies showed there was a positive trend in the number of accidents due to driver under the influence. Then, according to the program theory of change and logic model it is understood that the program is supposed to have an initial direct impact on the level of number of accidents due to drivers under the influence, as well as an impact on the slope of this trend. Thus, the regression equation for this research will be: do you need a lagged dependent variable?
Y_t= α+b_0 X_t+b^ ' X_t Y_(t-1)+cY_(t-1)+e_t
Through this equation, the research design will try to answer the question of whether the Lei Seca Operation in Rio de Janeiro has an immediate impact and changes the slope of the number of accidents due to drivers under the influence in the …show more content…
Taking into consideration part III of this section, our first step is to perform the two hypothesis tests proposed. In this sense, the first results that will provide evidence to support the argument that the Lei Seca Operation has positive impacts is to reject the null hypothesis of no impact (turning b0 into a statistically significant coefficient). In addition, the coefficient of b0 needs to be negative to confirm the direction of the immediate impact of the Lei Seca Operation.
Then, rejecting the other null hypothesis (H0: b^ '=0) the coefficient of b^ ' will be statistically significant. If this coefficient value is, also negative, it will possible to conclude that the Lei Seca Operation has in fact a gradual impact on the number of accidents due to drivers under the influence in Rio de
The program logic model long-term outcome is the change in behavior of the population to reduce the number of drivers under the influence. While in the short run the main concern (outcome) is to reduce the number of accidents due to drivers under the influence.
In this sense, this evaluation will try to answer the question of whether the Lei Seca Operation in Rio de Janeiro has an immediate and/or continuous negative effect on the number of accidents resulting from drivers under the influence.
Research Design
To be able to assess the program impact it is believed that the basic model to follow is the simple Single Interrupted Time-series (SITS) design. Hence, this type of design will provide evidence and an estimate of …show more content…
Particularly because time series design permits the evaluator to find the effect of a public intervention in a society were controlled experiments are impossible due to ethical or feasibility reasons. In addition, this type of design is mostly used in initial evaluations of public programs and improvement of their implementation.
Regression Equation
For the periods before the Lei Seca, most of the studies showed there was a positive trend in the number of accidents due to driver under the influence. Then, according to the program theory of change and logic model it is understood that the program is supposed to have an initial direct impact on the level of number of accidents due to drivers under the influence, as well as an impact on the slope of this trend. Thus, the regression equation for this research will be: do you need a lagged dependent variable?
Y_t= α+b_0 X_t+b^ ' X_t Y_(t-1)+cY_(t-1)+e_t
Through this equation, the research design will try to answer the question of whether the Lei Seca Operation in Rio de Janeiro has an immediate impact and changes the slope of the number of accidents due to drivers under the influence in the …show more content…
Taking into consideration part III of this section, our first step is to perform the two hypothesis tests proposed. In this sense, the first results that will provide evidence to support the argument that the Lei Seca Operation has positive impacts is to reject the null hypothesis of no impact (turning b0 into a statistically significant coefficient). In addition, the coefficient of b0 needs to be negative to confirm the direction of the immediate impact of the Lei Seca Operation.
Then, rejecting the other null hypothesis (H0: b^ '=0) the coefficient of b^ ' will be statistically significant. If this coefficient value is, also negative, it will possible to conclude that the Lei Seca Operation has in fact a gradual impact on the number of accidents due to drivers under the influence in Rio de