Surprise Intelligence Failure Analysis

The United States intelligence community (IC) is not perfect and is blamed for failing to predict several surprises in the form of attacks and uprisings around the world. These surprises are known as intelligence failures and are studied in every intelligence curriculum and intelligence agency within the IC. The IC is a fairly small community within the government; therefore the IC must assume calculated risks in how it operates during analysis and production. These calculated risks, in addition to other factors, are linked to the intelligence failures. As stated, there are several reasons why intelligence failures, but the question remains; what is the greatest risk in intelligence analysis and production that will potentially lead to the next intelligence failure? Since intelligence failures are inevitable, particularly tactical surprises, emphasis will be on the risk which will potentially result in …show more content…
The need for current intelligence over inundates policymakers, preventing the policymakers from focusing on other important aspects of the IC. Furthermore, the emphasis on current intelligence is creating an unhealthy and unintentional competitive analysis atmosphere potentially resulting in rushed incomplete analysis. Moreover, the focus on current intelligence is degrading analysts’ long-term expertise. Crises further amplify issues since crises strip collection and analysis assets from their primary focal points. Consequently, focusing on current intelligence contradicts the two primary reasons why intelligence agencies and analysts exist: “to avoid strategic surprise and to provide long-term expertise.” Although every intelligence failure cannot be prevented, the emphasis on current intelligence will potentially lead to a future strategic surprise intelligence