Food Instability Scenarios
This scenario builds on the following two uncertainties:
• Widespread food crisis/food insecurity.
• Political Instability leading to failed diversification efforts.
The scenario end-state is characterised by a mix of
1)Unfavourable climatic conditions such as lower rainfall leading to a higher level of desertification. A weaker currency at the same time will adversely affect the amount of food being imported from South Africa which will lead to prevalence of food insecurity in the country.
2) Economic decline leading to a weaker currency, the causes being political instability, insufficient investment into education, infrastructure, connectivity etc. …show more content…
The government hasn’t acted fast enough or focused on alternatives to diamond mining to prevent a potential crisis, not enough diamond mines are left now, which has resulted in people losing their jobs, lower PPP, lower standard of living and an economic decline. The location of Botswana (it being surrounded by other land masses) and the effect of inadequate rainfall has made things worse for the country.
b) Scarcity of water leads to increased level of desertification:
Botswana is going through severe water shortage due to inadequate rainfall and no water resource being available to tap in the land locked country. Higher and more focused efforts into the mining industry, coal extraction for electricity generation has rendered the underground water sources (the sources of portable water in Botswana) contaminated and in accessible. The more than 70% desert area is only increasing and land available for arable crop farming has gone down.
c) Higher level of poverty, slower …show more content…
And since trade has been affected, the strength of the currency has deteriorated which has had detrimental effects on the population who are unemployed & poverty stricken.
Key implications of events over time on the client organisation and the business problem
The economic condition of Botswana remains dependent on its mineral & metal wealth, rendering it susceptible to shocks due to global fluctuations, rising/falling commodity prices etc. The economic progress is affected by unemployment, poverty, income inequality amongst others. OECD should work with the government of Botswana and the bank of Botswana to develop policies and get an amount allocated to facilitate growth in other key areas such as agriculture, infrastructure, services etc.
Also, OECD should consider working with the government and persuading them to build inter industry links. As an example, processing iron ore locally by using thermal coal which is locally available. Thus, iron ore & coal could be proposed as complementary resources for domestic value addition and can be a pilot to the development of an industry that could be sustained beyond the life of Botswana’s own