Climatic Deviations Lead To Conflict Case Study

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Climatic Deviations Lead to Conflict
Scholarships associating environmental stress to conflicts begun to emerge in the 1980s (Myers 1986, Mathews 1989, Bekure 1989, Christiansson and Tobisson 1989, Ornas 1989, Prah 1989, Mascarenhas 1989). One study considered that watersheds, croplands, climate, and other factors that seldom figure in the minds of political leaders rank alongside military approaches as crucial to a nation 's security (Myers 1986). Another postulated that environmental strains that transcend national borders are already starting to break down the sacred boundaries of national sovereignty (Mathews 1989). Five years later, a groundbreaking study emerged drawing a connection between environmental stress and conflict (Homer-Dixon
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Using land invasions data set from 1988 to 2004, with rainfall patterns as a source of exogenous variation, Hidalgo, et al. find that “rural productivity shocks, such as droughts, lower the returns to agricultural labor and thus increase conflict” in Brazil (Hidalgo, et al. 2010, 506). This inquiry reveals that extreme weather deviations produce severe effects in different Brazilian municipalities by doubling land invasions as in municipalities with average land inequality. Studies in Indonesia as well, show that an upsurge in minimum temperature during the core month of planting season determines the rise in violence fueled by the reduction in future rice production per capita (Caruso, Petrarca and Ricciuti 2016, Naylor, et al. 2007). Climate-conflict research using aggregated datasets (Burke, et al. 2009, Hendrix and Salehyan 2012) may suffer from a severe ecological fallacy because the important micro-level nuances which could only be explained by a disaggregate individual or micro level data. These shortcomings were addressed through the use of micro-level data and case studies by other …show more content…
One research (Salehyan 2008, C. Raleigh 2010) made this argument effectively that say we should be cautious about the deterministic links between climate change and conflict. Instead of taking a deterministic approach, we should instead view the effect of climate change on conflict as something contingent upon the interplay of social and political determinants. As the author argue; “the overly structured logic linking climate change to armed conflict ignores human agency, ingenuity, the potential for technological innovations, and the vital role of political institutions in managing conflict” (Salehyan 2008, 317). Ignoring the role of human agency and institutions in containing and managing these kinds of conflicts will lead research on climate-conflict nexus to produce incorrect estimates and wrong policy prescriptions (ibid). This paper argues that gathering disaggregated data on resource management institutions, effective security forces, and an independent judiciary to deal with environmental-related problems is important for moving climate research forward (p.321). To prevent a possibility of reverse causality, the environmental

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