# Nahmias Chapter 2 Essays

1522 Words Mar 25th, 2013 7 Pages
Production and Operations Analysis, Fourth Edition

Solutions To Problems From Chapter 2 2.12 a) and b)

Forecast (86 + 75)/2 (75 + 72)/2 etc = = 80.5 73.5 77.5 107.5 98.5 87.5 100.0 78.5 79.5 95.0 = =

Period 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 21.6 717.5

Actual 72 83 132 65 110 90 67 92 98 73

et +8.5 -9.5 -54.5 42.5 -11.5 -2.5 +33.0 -13.5 -18.5 +22.0

c)

= =

(216)/10 (7175)/10

MAPE

=

100

1  n

 ∑D i ei 

= 25.61

2.13

Fcst 1 Fcst 2 223 289 430 134 190 550 210 320 390 112 150 490

Demand 256 340 375 110 225 525

Err 1 33 51 -55 -24 35 -25

Err 2 46 20 -15 -2 75 35

Er1^2

Er2^2

|Err1| 33 51 55 24 35 25 37.16666 (MAD1)

1089 2116 2601 400 3025 225 576 4 1225 5625 625 1225 1523.5 1599.166 (MSE1 (MSE2)

Err2
46 20 15 2 75 35
b) c)
US Births (in 1,000,000) (Xi) 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.8 2.8 4.2 3.7 Forecasted Births Using ES(.15)

Y10 = -5.8 + (4.158)(3.3) = 7.9214 (that is, \$792,140)

Hence, forecasted births for years 9 and 10 is 3.4 million.

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

3.2 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4

20

Solutions For Chapter 2
d) Yt = -5.8 + 4.158 Xt-1 Xt-1 = 3.4 million in years 8 and 9. Substituting gives Yt = -5.8 + (4.158)(3.4) = 8.3372 for sales in each of years 9 and 10. Hence the forecast of total aggregate sales in these years is (8.3372)(2) = 16.6744 or \$1,667,440.

## Related Documents

• ###### Essay Blood Bananas

country that is just emerging from a deadly civil war and the effects of wide-ranging narco-terrorism. Chiquita found out the hard way. It made tens of millions in profit growing bananas in Colombia, only to emerge with its reputation splattered in blood.2 In 2004, Chiquita voluntarily admitted criminal responsibility to the U.S. Justice Department that one of its Colombian banana subsidiaries had made protection payments from 1997 through 2004 to terrorist groups. Consequently, a high-profile investigation…

Words: 10215 - Pages: 41
• ###### Purchasing and Supply Management Essay

Fourteenth Edition Highlights of the Fourteenth Edition: More than 40 real-life supply chain cases afford the opportunity to apply of the acquisition process. Criteria for supply decisions have been organized into three categories: (1) strategic, (2) operational, and (3) additional. In this third category, new factors such as balance sheet and income statement considerations, dimensions of risk, and environmental and social considerations are considered. Visit the text’s Online Learning Center…

Words: 188429 - Pages: 754