Life Is A School Of Probability

Walter Bagehot once said “Life is a school of Probability.” (Bagehot, n.d.). In this scenario a phone survey was conducted on one hundred and fifty consumers and information was obtained about the consumers themselves and their shopping habits. From this data, one hopes to show the probability of a randomly selected consumer spending at least $15 per shopping trip. Then looking at those that spent that amount, which of the three malls offered the highest quality of goods. Lastly, given the previous variables how the probabilities relate back to a gender.
Spends at Least $15 In the first scenario, the numbers will be calculated to see what they probability of a randomly selected consumer will spend at least $15 during a shopping trip to each of the three malls in the Springdale area. Coming in with the most consumers who said they would be spend at …show more content…
Of the consumers surveyed there were eighty-nine females and sixty-one males. So what is the likelihood that a female will spend $15 in the Springdale Mall? There is an eighty-three percent chance (89/150 = .5933 + .24 (spend $15) = 0.833) for females to spend $15. When compared to the sixty-five percent chance for a male (61/150=0.407 + 0.24 (spends $15) = 0.647). Hence, it is more likely that to see a female spend at least $15 at Springdale Mall. So how does this compare to the other two malls? For Downtown, the overall possibility that any shopper would spend $15 was found to be approximately twenty-one percent. Taking that percentage and adding it to the percentage of females surveyed (0.5933) we see that the likelihood of seeing a female that will spend at least $15 is eighty-one percent. The likelihood of seeing a male that spends $15 was approximately sixty percent (0.407 + 0.2133 = 0.6203).Again, the ladies won for Downtown but the average between male and female are closer for this