Searching for another model to predict the presidency, I chose to research Nate Silver’s
FiveThirtyEight website and their “polls-plus” predictive model. FiveThirtyEight defines the polls-plus version model as: [The polls-plus model] “Combines polls with an economic index.” They use a four-step calculation for their prediction, which includes: “1) collecting, weighing, and averaging the polls, 2) adjusting the polls, 3) combining the polls with demographic and economic data, and 4) accounting for uncertainty and simulating the election thousands of times.”(fivethirtyeight.com) One factor that the FiveThirtyEight model uses is probability of the polls. They have taken data on presidential election polls since 1972 and still use probabilities …show more content…
I feel that FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus predictive election model serves as a strong scheme, because it integrates both state polls and an economic index. Considering FiveThirtyEight uses a calculation of the economic index, they generally determine that with the economic situation the way it is, it predicts that this election will be more of a toss-up, rather than an advantage towards either Clinton or Trump. FiveThirtyEight calculates the economic index by basing it on “the change in six frequently updated variables over the past year: jobs (nonfarm payrolls); manufacturing (industrial production); income (real personal income); spending (personal consumption expenditures); inflation (the consumer price index); and the stock market (S&P 500).”(fivethirtyeight.com) While Lichtman really only uses two of his thirteen keys to focus on economic standards (short-term and long-term economy), I feel that since fivethirtyeight uses their economic index to cover a wider variety of variables to predict the election, it helps determine a closer and more realistic outcome. I favor fivethirtyeight’s model in this respect because in my opinion, I think that economic conditions tend to sway voters right or left to a greater extent than other variables when voting for a particular candidate. Even though Lichtman has predicted the winner of the popular vote for every presidential election since 1984, I believe fivethirtyeight’s model has a stronger set of factors to predict this
FiveThirtyEight website and their “polls-plus” predictive model. FiveThirtyEight defines the polls-plus version model as: [The polls-plus model] “Combines polls with an economic index.” They use a four-step calculation for their prediction, which includes: “1) collecting, weighing, and averaging the polls, 2) adjusting the polls, 3) combining the polls with demographic and economic data, and 4) accounting for uncertainty and simulating the election thousands of times.”(fivethirtyeight.com) One factor that the FiveThirtyEight model uses is probability of the polls. They have taken data on presidential election polls since 1972 and still use probabilities …show more content…
I feel that FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus predictive election model serves as a strong scheme, because it integrates both state polls and an economic index. Considering FiveThirtyEight uses a calculation of the economic index, they generally determine that with the economic situation the way it is, it predicts that this election will be more of a toss-up, rather than an advantage towards either Clinton or Trump. FiveThirtyEight calculates the economic index by basing it on “the change in six frequently updated variables over the past year: jobs (nonfarm payrolls); manufacturing (industrial production); income (real personal income); spending (personal consumption expenditures); inflation (the consumer price index); and the stock market (S&P 500).”(fivethirtyeight.com) While Lichtman really only uses two of his thirteen keys to focus on economic standards (short-term and long-term economy), I feel that since fivethirtyeight uses their economic index to cover a wider variety of variables to predict the election, it helps determine a closer and more realistic outcome. I favor fivethirtyeight’s model in this respect because in my opinion, I think that economic conditions tend to sway voters right or left to a greater extent than other variables when voting for a particular candidate. Even though Lichtman has predicted the winner of the popular vote for every presidential election since 1984, I believe fivethirtyeight’s model has a stronger set of factors to predict this