Uk Politics - Voting Behaviour And Media

Front 1

1979 general election - Outcome

Back 1

. Labour's respresentation went down by 62 and the Conservatives' went up by 50

. The Conservartive majority was 43

. No small parties won a significant number of seats

. The Scottish National Party (SNP) lost 9 of their 11 seats in Scotland, reflecting a loss of interest in devolution at that time

Front 2

1979 general election - main changes since last election

Back 2

. The UK moved from a Labour government with no majority to a Conservative government with a comfortable majority

. The first female prime minister was elected (Thatcher)

Front 3

1979 general election - Main issues

Back 3

. There had been a wave of public-sector strikes from 1978-79 - people punished Labour for not controlling trade union power

. The economy was in a poor state, in particular concerning inflation, though this had been falling - Labour became associated with high inflation

. The extent to which the state should regulate and control industry as opposed to the operation of free markets was an issue

Front 4

1979 general election - Main influences on the outcome

Back 4

. Labour ran a poor election campaign, implying that the country should not elect a woman

. Labour was not trusted on the economy

. Labour was beginning to appear disunited between its left wing and its moderates

. The Conservative promise to expand home ownership was popular

. The growing size of the middle class and shrinking working class gave the Conservatives a natural advantage

Front 5

1979 general election - How was government affected?

Back 5

. The UK moved from a period of indecisive, weak government with a tiny majority to government with a working majority

. It marked the beginning of 19 consecutive years of Conservative government

. The bulk of the electorate moved towards a centrist or right-wing attitude to most issues

Front 6

1997 general election - Main features of outcome

Back 6

. It was a landslide victory for the Labour Party under Blair

. The Liberal Democrats made a breakthrough, winnign 46 seats at Westminster

. The effects of the electoral system exaggerated the scale of Labour's victory - 43% of the vote was converted into 63% of the seats

Front 7

1997 general election - Main changes since the last election

Back 7

. The Conservatives lost a total of 178 seats, Labour gained 145

. The Liberal Democrats gained 28 seats

. The Labour vote had risen by 8.8% since 1987, while the Conservative vote had fallen by 11.2%

Front 8

1997 general election - Main issues

Back 8

. The 1990s had seen an economic recession for which the Conservatives were blamed

. The National Health Service was considered to be in decline

. Education funding and standards were falling

. Crime was at high levels

Front 9

1979 general election - Main influences of the outcome

Back 9

. Blair was seen as a charismatic, dynamic leader while John Major, the Conservative prime minister, was viewed as dull and uninspiring

. Blair, with his 'third way' policies, was able to appeal to the growing middle class - he succeeded in shedding his party's reputation for being too socialist and reckless with public finances

. The electorate was weary of many years of Conservative rule and wanted a change

. The media showed strong support for Labour

Front 10

1979 general election - How was government affected?

Back 10

. The election marked the beginning of 13 years of Labour rule, during which the party won three general elections

. Labour won a huge parliamentary majority which made it possible for it to commence a significant programme of social, economic and constitutional reform

. The beginnigns of a three-party system can be seen at this election

Front 11

2010 general election - Main features of the outcome

Back 11

. There was a dramatic outcome - the first hung parliament since February 1974

. The Conservative Party won 36.1% of the popular vote - along with the Liberal Democrats' 23%, the coalition government held 59.1% of popular support

. The Liberal Democrats continued their resurgence by winning 23% of the popular vote and 57 seats

Front 12

2010 general election - Main changes since the last election

Back 12

. More than with previous elections, thsi was a leadership election

. It was clear that the electorate had become more volatile than before

. Opinion polls, largely accurate in the past, proved to be inaccurate this time, partly because of increased voter volatility

. Turnout, which had slumped to below 60% in 2005, recovered to somewhat 65% in 2010

Front 13

2010 general election - Main issues

Back 13

. This was almost a 'one-issue' election - the state of the economy in the face of the major financial crisis engulfing the capitalist world at the time was the overwhelming concern

. The Labour Party was blamed for the state of the UK financial systme

. The alarming growth in government debt brought back memories of Labour as a 'tax-and-spend party'

. A key issue was whether the UK should spend its way otu of the cirsis or institute a programme of austerity (higher taxes and lower government spending) to deal with it

Front 14

2010 general election - Main influences of the outcome

Back 14

. Leadership was a key issue - Prime minister Gordon Brown was regarded as weak and indecisive as well as dull and lacking in charisma; David Cameron presented a fresher, more decisive image

. During the campaign, the spectre of a coalition between Labour and the Scottish National Party was raised in the media, as a hunge parliament was expected - this proved to be an unpopular prospect for many voters, so they switched to the Conservatives

. The opinion polls, which pointed to a hung parliament, had an influence as they may have changed some voters' minds about which party to support

. There was a relentless press campaign criticising Brown as a leader

Front 15

2010 general election - How was government affected?

Back 15

. Labour failed to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats or the SNP, so the Conservatives were invited to join with the Liberal Democrats

. There followed five years of problematic, fragile coalition government

. The UK seemed to be moving further towards a three-party system

Front 16

2017 general election - Main features of the outcome

Back 16

. This was an extraordinary election in many ways - early forecasts of a Conservative ladnslide were dispelled in the last two weeks of the campaign

. It produced a hung parliament, with the Conservatives the largest party but short of an overall majority

. The Conservative Party gained an increased share of the vote but lost seats, while Labour's share of the vote rose nearly 10% and they gained seats

. The expected Liberal Democrats revival did not happen - UKIP lost most of its share of the vote and its one seat, the Greens faltered and the SNP lost seats in Scotland

. The reputation of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was enormously enhanced, while that of Theresa May was damaged

. In order to govern, the Conservatives had to reach a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP (with 10 seats) to give them an overall majority - a large grant of 1 billion was awarded to the province of Northern Ireland in return for DUP support

Front 17

2017 general election - Main changes since the last election

Back 17

. UKIP ceased to be a force in UK politics

. The SNP lost its dominance in Scotland and the issue of Scottish independence was put on the 'back burner'

. The Conservatives, having enjoyed a 12-seat majority after 2015, became a minority government but increased their share of the vote by 5.5%

. Labour increased its share of the vote by 9.6%

Front 18

2017 general election - Main issues

Back 18

. There was a clear choice between the left-wing policies of Labour and the centrist, moderate policies of the Conservative Party - this was the clearest choice to be presented since the ideology-driven election of 1983

. The Conservatives campaigned on the issue of strong leadership, the ability to conclude Brexit negotiations successfully and 'strong and stable' government

. Labour campaigned on such radical policies as nationalisation of the railways, Royal Mail and water companies, rises in taxation on the wealthy, large increases in expenditure on health and education, abolition of university tuition fees and free nursery care

Front 19

2017 general election - Main influences of the outcome

Back 19

. Jeremy Corbyn enjoyed a successful campaign and raised his profile and personal support, while Theresa May suffeed a poor campaign and her reputation was damaged

. The young voted in much larger numbers than in the recent past, giving a significant boost to the Labour Party

. Many former UKIP voters gave their support to one of the two main parties, resulting in two-party dominance - UKIP had a poor campaign and similarly, 21 former SNP seats in Scotland were won by Labour or the Conservatives

. The bulk of the press was pro-Conservative but the Labour Party, using social media extensively, was able to thwart the opposition of the traditional press

Front 20

2017 general election - How was government affected?

Back 20

. A hung parliament resulted

. A minority Conservative government took over, supported by the ten MP's from the DUP to give it a majority on key votes

Front 21

Factors affecting election outcomes

Back 21

. The manifestos (on which a party's mandate is based) - In 2017 the publication of the manifestos led to a narrowing of the gap in opinion polls between Labour and the Conservatives; however normally manifestos make little impact

. Leadership debates on TV - In 2010 the impressive performance of Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and the weak showing of Labour prime minster Gordon Brown were influential on their parties' fortunes

. In 2015, David Cameron outperformed Labour leader Ed Miliband

. The press can be influential if it shows a distinct bias towards one side - This may have contributed to Labour's loss in 2015

. The press can also influence through its image of the party leaders

. Issues can be favourable or unfavourable to the parties - Each party tends to concentrate on the issues on which it feels itself to be strong during the campaign, thus they tend to cancel each other out

. Evidence suggests issues reinforce existing voting intentions rather than changing them

Front 22

Social class and voting

Back 22

. 1964 - Class AB voting for Conservative (78%); Class DE voting for Labour (64%)

. 1987 - Class AB voting for Conservative (57%); Class DE voting for Labour (53%)

. 1997 - Class AB voting for Conservative (59%); Class DE voting for Labour (59%)

. 2010 - Class AB voting for Conservative (40%); Class DE voting for Labour (40%)

. 2015 - Class AB voting for Conservative (45%); Class DE voting for Labour (41%)

. 2017 - Class AB voting for Conservative (43%); Class DE voting for Labour (59%)

Front 23

Age and voting

Back 23

. 18-24 age group - 1979 general election: Conservatives (42%), Labour (41%)

. 2017 general election: Conservatives (18%), Labour (67%)

. 25-34 age group - 1979 general election: Conservatives (43%), Labour (38%). 2017 general election: Conservatives (22%), Labour (58%)

. 35-54 age group - 1979 general election: Conservatives (46%), Labour (35%). (35-44 age group) 2017 general election: Conservatives (30%), Labour (50%)

. 55+ age group - 1979 general election: Conservatives (47%), Labour (38%). (65+ age group) 2017 general election: Conservatives (59%), Labour (23%)

. The 19-24 age group is much more likely to support the Labour Party than the Conservatives

. The older a voter is, the more likely they are to support the Conservative Party

. It is also true that the younger a voter is, the more liekly they are to support two of the UK's most radical parties, the Greens and the Scottish National Party

Front 24

Gender and voting

Back 24

. Gender has little or no impact on voting intentions - women and men display remarkably similar political attitudes

Front 25

Race and voting

Back 25

. 1997 - Black and minority ethnic voting for Conservative (18%), Labour (70%)

. 2010 - Black and minority ethnic voting for Conservative (16%), Labour (60%)

. 2015 - Black and minority ethnic voting for Conservative (23%), Labour (65%)

. 2017 - Black and minority ethnic voting for Conservative (21%), Labour (65%)

Front 26

Region and voting

Back 26

. The south of England is heavily dominated by the Conservative Party

. The same is true of the Midlands, though to a slightly lesser extent

. The north of England is Labour dominated

. Outside London and Sxotland, UKIP support is evenly spread

. Scotland is heavily dominated by the SNP

. London is different from the rest of the south of England in that Labour has more support in the city

. 2017 general election - North of England Conservative vote (37.2%), Labour vote (52.9%)

. 2017 general election - South of England Conservative vote (45.7%), Labour vote (25.5%)

Front 27

Overall influence of social and demographic factors on voting

Back 27

. Gender - There is virtually no difference in voting havits between men and women, though there is a slight tendency for women to favour Labour

. Age - This a key factor, the older voters favour the Conservatives (and UKIP) very significantly, whilst young voters have a Labour bias and also tend to support the Green Party

. Ethnicity - This is also significant, although there are signs that it is weakening as a factor, a further trend is for more established immigrant groups to move towards favouring the Conservative Party

. Class - Class used to be the most important determinant of voting behaviour but is becoming much less influential (it remains significant, however)

. Region - There are wide regional variations in voting patterns, Scotland is the most remarkable currently with the SNP enjoying complete dominance; the south of England is solidly Conservative, leaving Labour with a mountain to climb in that region

. UKIP made inroads into Labour's former dominance of northern England - this leads to what are known as electoral heartlands, where only one party wins any seats

Front 28

Partisanship and voting attachment 1

Back 28

. Class dealignment has occurred - this means that the old strong links between the working class and Labour and the middle class and the Conservatives have weakened

. As a result of class dealignment, people display weaker party attachments - they demonstrate partisan dealignment

. The parties have tended to adopt centrist policies which could attract a wider range of voter support - Labour in 2017, however, adopted a radical left-wing programme in order to try to re-engage its traditional supporters

Front 29

Partisanship and voting attachment 2

Back 29

. There is growing support for smaller parties such as UKIP, the Green Party and the Scottish Nationalists

. There is a general widespread dissatisagfaction with the performance of arties at Westminster (demonstrated by UKIP voting in 2015 and low turnouts), so people feel less attachment to them

. Party membership has fallen dramtically (with some recovery in Labour membership in 2016), so there are many fewer committed party supporters

Front 30

Valence 1

Back 30

. Valence is one of the kye factors in voting behaviour - it stands in oppostiion to positional voting where voters are looking at specific policies or groups of policies when making decisions about whom to vote for

. It refers to certain attitudes towards the parties at elections:

. Governing competency - Will the party govern well? It refers to such qualities as strength, decisiveness and sensitivity to public opinion; this was a problem for Labour in 2010 and the Liberal Democrats in 2015

. Economic competence - Labour lost confidence on economic management after the financial crash of 2008; the Conservatives developed a positive reputation on such competence, which helped them in 2017

Front 31

Valence 2

Back 31

. How united is the party? - Voters trust united parties but not disunited one

. The Conservatives lost elections in 2001 and 2005 partly because the party was divided within itself - it was a serious problem for Labour in 2017 also

. Are the leaders admired and trusted? - The Liberal Democrats did well in 2010 because leader Nick Clegg was liked and respected, nevertheless he lost respect after that and was heavily defeated in 2015

. Ed Miliband, Labour's leader from 2010-15, was not well respected and was a major cause of the party's defeat in 2015

. In 2017, Theresa May was more trusted and respected than Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, although Corbyn recovered some ground durign the election campaign

Front 32

Rational choice 1

Back 32

. This concerns the identification of 'salient' or very important issues at stake in the election - many voters are influenced by such salient issues, so parties often make them the main elements in their election campaigns

. Salient issues in all general elections in the UK include:

. the state of the economy

. the state of the National Health Service

. the state of education

. immigration issues

. trends in crime and law and order

Front 33

Rational choice 2

Back 33

. In the 2017 general election, the salient issues were:

. How the UK was going to exit the EU and what kind of deal could be done with the EU

. The problems in how to fund social care of the elderly

. The future of the UK's nuclear capability

. How much regulation or public ownership there should be of 'big business'

. How the tax burden should be distributed between high-,middle- and low-income groups

. How much protection there should be for workers against poor employment practices

. The extent to which the government should 'spend and borrow' its way towards economic growth as opposed to concentrating on financial responsibility and the reduction of public-sector debt

Front 34

Issue voting

Back 34

. Issue voting is similar to rational choice, but here voters are concentrating on one single issue or a group of related issues - voters' choice is often divided into two types:

. Instrumental voting - This is what the voter thinsk will be best in their own interests

. Expressive voting - When a voter thinks not of themselves but of the good of the whole community

. Both are rational because they compare the pros and cons of supporting a particular party - Issue voting may be influenced by the contents of party manifestos, though few voters read them thoroughly

Front 35

Turnout

Back 35

. The level of turnout can influence the outcome of an eleciton - this is because different demographic groups usually demonstrate different turnout levels

. This is usually to the advantage of the Conservative Party

. The young, who tend to be more left-wing, vote in much smaller numbers than over-65s, who are more likely to be Conservatives

. The same is ture of low-income groups, who mostly support Labour but vote in smaller numbers

. Higher-income groups turn out in large numbers and tend to be Conservative

. The main reason for low turnout are disillusion and apathy, which are more prominent among the young

Front 36

Party leaders and voting behaviour

Back 36

. The quality of the party leaders is an issue which stands aong in voting behaviour - the typical qualities that voters liek to support can be listed:

. Record in office - (Margaret Thatcher 1979-87)

. Compassion - (John Major 1990-92, Jeremy Corbyn 2017)

. Decisiveness - (Tony Blair 1997-2001)

. Strong leadership - (Margaret Thatcher, Theresa May 2017)

. Clear vision - (Tony Blair, Nicola Sturgeon for the SNP)

. Communication skills - (David Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn)

. Populist appeal - (Nigel Farage 2015)

Front 37

Non-social factors in voting behaviour

Back 37

. Valence - The general image of the party; trustworthiness, competence, unity etc

. Rational choice - Which party has the best policies either for the individual voter or for the community as a whole; this largely concerns salient issues

. Issue voting - Which single issue or group of issues attracts some voters

. Leadership issues - Which leader is perceived to have the best qualities

Front 38

Political affiliations of UK newspapers at the 2017 election

Back 38

. Sun - Strongly Conservative, highest circulation

. Daily Mail - Strongly Conservative

. Daily Mirror - Strongly Labour

. Daily Telegraph - Strongly Conservative

. The Times - Moderately Conservative

. Daily Star - No preference

. Daily Express - Strongly UKIP

Front 39

Issues concerning press influence 1

Back 39

. Newspapers ay contribute to setting the agenda - identifying certain issues which may appear most siginificant, and so favour some parties more than others (often applies to the economy)

. Newspapers may influence people concerning the image of leaders - Ed Miliband suffered from a major press campaign in 2015 suggesting he was ineffective

. The press may influence people's image of the parties in general (valence), which may affect some floating voters

Front 40

Issues concerning press influence 2

Back 40

. Even though newspapers may have little influence over voters, some politicians believe they do and so they can be infleunced to change their policies to please newspaper proprietors

. Newspapers in the UK are free, so their bias is inevitable

. The eivdence suggests that newspaper opinion, as expressed in their comment pages, reinforces existing politicial attitudes but rarely changes them

. The broadcast media are not permitted to shwo any political bias, so there is no evidence that they infleucne political opinion

. Social media are active in election campagins but their infleunce cannot be estimated as so many different opinions are expressed on social media

Front 41

Opinion polls and elections

Back 41

. The media and poltiical parties pay a great deal of attention to opinion polls

. In recent electiosn and referendums, opinion polls have proved to be inaccurace - e.g. they failed to predict the Conservative general election victory in 2015, the 'Leave' vote in the 2016 EU referendum and a hung parliament in June 2017

. Voters may adjust their intentions according to what the polls are revealing - e.g. some voters may have decided not to vote Labour in 2015 as they feared a Labour-SNP coalition; some may have voted to leave the EU as a protest, as they expected the outcome to be 'Remain' and their vote would not matter

. If the polls are showing a clear outcome one way or another, it may discourage people from voting at all

. Parties may adjust their policies as a result of opinion poll findings, even though those findings may be inaccurate

Front 42

For banning the publication of opinion polls

Back 42

. They may influence the way people vote

. They have proved to be inaccurate, so they mislead the public

. Arugably politicians should not be slaves to changing public opinion as expressed in the polls

Front 43

Against banning publication of opinion polls

Back 43

. It would infringe the principle of freedom of expression

. If they are banned they will become available privately for organisations that can afford to pay for them

. Polls give valuale information about people's attitudes, which can guide politicians usefully

. They would still be published abroad and people could access them through the internet