Apics Mpr Forecasting

Front 1

Adaptive smoothing

Back 1

The smoothing constant is automatically adjusted as a function of forecast error.

Front 2

Aggregate forecast

Back 2

An estimate of sales for a grouping produced by a facility.

Front 3

Aggregate plan

Back 3

Budgeted levels of goods, inventory, & backlog that support the production strategy.

Front 4

Alpha factor

Back 4

The weighting factor that is applied to the most recent demand. Smoothing constant.

Front 5

Base series

Back 5

A succession of values of demand-over-time data used in forecasting seasonal items.

Front 6

Consuming the forecast

Back 6

The process of reducing the forecast by customer orders.

Front 7

Correlation

Back 7

The relationship between two sets of data. If one changes, then the second changes too.

Front 8

Curve fitting

Back 8

A straight line, polynomial, or a curve that describes historical time series data.

Front 9

Decomposition

Back 9

Method of forecasting where time series data are separated: trend, seasonal, & cyclical.

Front 10

Delphi method

Back 10

A qualitative forecasting technique derived by the opinions of experts.

Front 11

Deviation

Back 11

The absolute difference between a number and the mean set of numbers.

Front 12

Distribution of forecast errors

Back 12

Tabulation of the forecast errors according to the frequency of occurrence of each value.

Front 13

Econometric model

Back 13

Equations designed to capture the way dependent & independent variables are interrelated.

Front 14

Exponential smoothing

Back 14

A weighted moving average where past observations are discounted according to their age.

Front 15

Extrapolation

Back 15

Projection. Estimation of the future value of some data series based on past observations.

Front 16

First order smoothing

Back 16

A weighted average approach that is applied to forecasting problems where the data do not exhibit significant patterns

Front 17

Focus forecasting

Back 17

Simulate numerous forecasting techniques to better select the most effective one.

Front 18

Forecast horizon

Back 18

The period of time into the future for which a forecast is prepared

Front 19

Frequency distribution

Back 19

Table that indicates the variation that data will fall into any number of subdivisions.

Front 20

Least-squares method

Back 20

Method of curve fitting that selects a line of best fit through a plot of data.

Front 21

Life cycle analysis

Back 21

A quantitative forecasting technique to apply past patterns of demand data to a new product.

Front 22

Mean

Back 22

The arithmetic average of a group of values

Front 23

Median

Back 23

Middle value in a set of measured values, when the items are arranged in order of magnitude

Front 24

Moving average

Back 24

The average value of a certain number of the most recent observations

Front 25

Noise

Back 25

Unpredictable or random difference between the observed data and the true process.

Front 26

Outlier

Back 26

A data point that differs significantly from other data for a similar phenomenon.

Front 27

Planning horizon

Back 27

The amount of time that a plan extends into the future. Covers a minimum of cumulative lead time.

Front 28

Product group forecast

Back 28

A forecast for a number of similar products

Front 29

Probability

Back 29

A number derived for a process to give the probable outcome of experimentation

Front 30

Forecast interval

Back 30

The time unit for which forecasts are prepared, such as week, month, or quarter.

Front 31

Probability distribution

Back 31

Numbers that indicate a frequency on how the results of an experiment should occur.

Front 32

Product group forecast

Back 32

A forecast for a number of similar products

Front 33

Pyramid forecasting

Back 33

A technique that enables mgmt to adjust and balance forecasts made at an aggregate level

Front 34

Random sample

Back 34

A selection of observations made with the same probability of selection.

Front 35

Regression analysis

Back 35

Describes the functional relationship between one response & independent variables.

Front 36

Safety capacity

Back 36

Planned amount by which the available capacity exceeds current productive capacity.

Front 37

Sample

Back 37

A portion of a universe of data chosen to estimate some characteristic about the whole universe

Front 38

Sampling distribution

Back 38

The distribution of values of a statistic calculated from samples of a given size.

Front 39

Seasonal index

Back 39

A number used to adjust data to seasonal demand

Front 40

Second-order smoothing

Back 40

A method for trend situations that employs two previously computed averages to extrapolate.

Front 41

Sigma

Back 41

a Greek letter commonly used to designate the standard deviation of a population.

Front 42

Skew

Back 42

The degree of nonsymmetry shown by a frequency or probability distribution.

Front 43

Smoothing constant

Back 43

The weighting factor that is applied to the most recent demand. Alpha factor.

Front 44

Trend forecasting models

Back 44

Methods for forecasting sales data when a definite upward or downward pattern exists.

Front 45

Weighted moving average

Back 45

Data to be averaged are not uniformly weighted, but are given values according to their importance.