Trend Analysis Baseball America

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The Orioles are well known for their complete and utter disinterest in using their international signing bonus pool to sign prospects from Central and South America. Baseball America claims that the Orioles spent the least of all teams in 2013 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2013-international-spending-by-team/) and second lowest in 2014 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2014-international-spending-team/). Orioles’ fans are concerned by this because about one-sixth of all top 100 prospects from 2010-2015 fell into this category and one would think that not using their bonus pool to the fullest would hurt their efforts. This begs the question of how the most expensive, and therefore highest ranked Central and South …show more content…
Steven Souza was ranked in the top 50 at #37. 30 of these 59 players ultimately made it to the majors and some like Jonathan Lucroy, Craig Kimbrel, Steve Souza, Danny Espinosa, Danny Duffy, Jordy Mercer and Vance Worley became regular players. These 59 players cost $21.3M or roughly $360k per prospect. This is considerably less expensive than the international prospects listed above and also consists of more talent. It’s very easy to make the argument that there was more talent developed in the fourth round (Darwin Barney, Corey Kulber, Derek Norris, Dee Gordon and Brandon Crawford), the fifth round (Jake Arrieta, Alex Avila, Steve Cishek, Daniel Hudson, Adrian Nieto) and sixth round (Anthony Rizzo, Josh Harrison and J.B Shuck) in these rounds then in the international prospects listed …show more content…
However, Baseball America did create a list of the projected top 25 bonuses for 2009 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2009/268478.html). Miguel Sano is looking like a star. Aside from that, the best remaining players are probably Profar and Sardinas, neither of whom have done much in the majors.
In 2010, Baseball America started keeping lists of players that earned one of the top 30 international bonuses as well as the amount. It is possible to do the same thing for 2010 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611344.html), 2011 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-30-international-bonuses-of-2011-13091/) and 2012 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-30-international-bonuses-of-2012-14686/) as was done in 2007 and 2008 to determine the current value of expensive international prospects.
Andres Serrano, one of the ninety players listed in these three lists had his contract voided (http://stlouis.sbnation.com/st-louis-cardinals/2012/8/3/3216639/mlb-suspends-andres-serrano-one-year-cardinals-2012) by MLB during that time period due to unverified age and identification claims and therefore isn’t included in this

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