Incumbent Challenger And Challenger Vote Share Essay

1606 Words Mar 21st, 2016 7 Pages
Incumbent and Challenger Vote Shares
The SURE model also predicts the INC and BJP vote shares when they are incumbents and challengers. In making these predictions the methodology that was used took the following form. Using the coefficients of the INC equation (shown in the first panel of Table 5.1), the predicted INC vote share in each of these constituencies was computed and, then, averaged, first when it was supposed that all the INC candidates in the 2,684 constituencies were incumbents and next when it was supposed that all the INC candidates in the 2,684 constituencies were challengers. Since these two sets of predictions differ only in the fact that in the first prediction the INC was assumed to the incumbent, and in the second it was assumed to be the challenger, the difference between these two predictions must be due entirely to the incumbent-challenger effects for the INC. An identical exercise was then conducted for the BJP.
These predicted vote shares with respect to incumbents and challengers are shown in Table 5.4 and 5.5. (It is important to emphasise that, by the structure of the SURE equations from which they were derived, these predictions are made with respect to only those 2,684 constituencies that were contested by both the INC and the BJP). Table 5.4 compares the vote shares of INC incumbents and challengers and BJP incumbents and challengers: columns 2 and 3 of Table 5.4 show the predicted vote shares of, respectively, INC incumbents and challengers…

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