Predicting The Next President Analysis

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Within the reading of Predicting the Next President, the author showcases “13 Keys to the White House” that have been successful in assisting the author in predicting numerous outcomes of presidential elections. The rule of the keys is simple. If there are five or less keys labeled as false, then incumbent party wins. As these keys can have differing outcomes through differing opinions, it will be interesting to see if mine and my classmates’ predictions correlate with the author’s. The first four keys are politically based and measure the strength and unity of the incumbent party. The first key is factual based and reflects on whether after the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than …show more content…
Key five is true in the fact that it specifies that the economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Key six is false in the fact that real annual per capita economic growth during the term does not equal or exceed the previous two terms. The data from http://www.multpl.com/us-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-year showcases that in 2016, the growth rate was at 2.51% (as of June 2016). Meanwhile, in 2012 it was 3.24% and in 2008 it was -0.92%. Key seven is true. The incumbent administration did effect major changes in national policy. One of the biggest effects in Obama’s second term has been his policy limiting greenhouse gas emissions of power plants. Key eight declaring that there has been no social unrest during the term is false. In my opinion, protests and riots in regards to the Black Lives Matter movement as well as issues of police brutality, clearly can be defined as social unrest. Key nine is true. Obama and the incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Key ten is also true. I would not classify this term as having suffered any major failure in foreign or military affairs. Key eleven is also true. I would classify the embargo lift of Cuba, and the acceptance of further syrian refugees as major successes in foreign …show more content…
These keys recognize that personality makes a difference in presidential politics. Key twelve stating that the incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero is false. While I support Hillary Clinton, I do not see her as being charismatic and she is most definitely not a national hero. While she is the first woman major party candidate, that title does not grant her the award of being a national hero and does not grant her charisma. In her campaign, Hillary has had a clear struggle with charisma and appearing approachable overall. While she has bettered herself by playing to the strength of being a mother and a grandmother, in comparison to previous charismatic leaders such as Obama and Bill Clinton, Hillary lacks charisma. Key number thirteen is also false. Trump is not a charismatic candidate and is most certainly not a national hero. While it could be argued that he does inspire devotion in others, and could therefore be charismatic, I see his charisma only being that of the negative connotation, which I do not believe truly counts in this

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