Expectation Theory: The Term Structure Of Interest Rate

Great Essays
1.5.1.2 TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE
Mishkin (2009) states that the term structure of interest rate explains that bonds with the same risk and liquidity have different interest rates because the bonds time to maturity are different from each other. He also states that the yield curve illustrates how the returns of bonds and maturity changes over time. There are four approaches that elaborates on the different shapes of the yield curve, they are the expectation, liquidity-premium, segment market and preferred habitat theory. These theories explain the different shapes the yield curve can take: upward, downward, inverted and humped yield, of which for example the upward slop yield states that there are higher returns when maturity increases.
…show more content…
Hicks specified to say that “the rate of interest on perfectly safe securities is determined by nothing else but uncertainty of future interest rates seems to leave interest hanging by its own boot-straps”. Meaning that liquidity preference can account for the term structure of interest rates.

1.5.1.2.3 THE SEGMENTED MARKETS THEORY
Culbertson (1957) explains that the Segmented Markets theory assume that financial instruments are not substitutable. It argues that investors are risk adverse and that this theory is used mostly by investment specialist and least by economist. Long term investors when trading in a segment of the yield curve are able to maximize their personal risk; therefore financial instruments are not substitutable across the term structure.

Investors tend to prefer bonds of one maturity because they are more concerned with a return on that specific maturity that they prefer, that’s why Mishkin (2009) explains why bonds with different maturities are not substitutes. The segmented markets theory cannot explain why interest rates with different maturities move together, however it does explain why yields usually tend to slope upwardly, but not in the case when short term interest are low and when the yield curve is downwardly sloped because short term interest rates are
…show more content…
He argues that the markets can be segmented because of transactional cost. When transaction cost are high and above profits to be gained arbitrage will not occur, through the arbitrage process. Seo explains that the effectiveness of the arbitrage process are reduce due to transaction cost and will eventually affect the market segments. Seo (2003) believes that even though many other authors have rejected this approach, he continues to maintain that this factor should be included in future predicted movements of the yield curve. This theory has its weakness in that it cannot explain the three facts of the yield curve: the reason that long rates tend to remain stable relative to short rates, a persistent upward slope and the trend for long term rates and short term rates to move

Related Documents

  • Improved Essays

    Acc 291 Week 2 Paper

    • 488 Words
    • 2 Pages

    Glenn-reply to Haamid initial reply to DQ WK 2 part 2 I read your post, and it prompted me to do more research on interest rates and their inverse relationship to bond prices. At first glance, the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices seems somewhat illogical, but upon closer examination, it makes sense. An easy way to grasp why bond prices move opposite to interest rates is to consider zero-coupon bonds, which don't pay coupons but derive their value from the difference between the purchase price and the par value paid at maturity. ("Why do interest rates tend to have an inverse relationship with bond prices?…

    • 488 Words
    • 2 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    The Dinner Party Economics by Eveline Adomait and Richard Maranta provides a deep understanding of the macroeconomic environment and provides an opportunity to analyse the recent decisions of the Ontario government. The Ontario government recently released a new budget that states it will once again run a deficit for the following fiscal year (Morrow, 2016). This will be the tenth time in the last thirteen years that the government has spent more money that it has received from tax payers. With the continuation of borrowing, and the growth of the deficit in the upcoming years, the province is expected to reach the highest level of sub national debt across the entire globe. Currently the net debt of the province sits at about $296.1 billion…

    • 1248 Words
    • 5 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    OPTIMAL RISKY PORTFOLIO: CAPITAL ALLOCATION BETWEEN RISK-FREE AND RISKY ASSETS The optimal capital allocation is the goal of each investor. One way to form an optimal portfolio and maximise the investor’s utility is by maximising the Sharp ratio. This report uses monthly return data of the 10 major sectors in the ASX300 from January 2004 until December 2015.…

    • 1476 Words
    • 6 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    Chapter 8 of the textbook started by highlighting how securities market is essential most particularly in the U.S market and how in terms of dollars, institutions like banks, insurance companies as well as some other intermediaries are more important and considered than the stocks and bonds markets. We understand that the actions occur behind closed doors of lenders such as the bank even though the market attracts media attention due to its relatively transparent style. We see countries such as the U.S, Germany Japan, and Canada stock exchange "equity" only account for only 12 percent of outside financing. But, nonbank financial companies and banks account throughout mortgage for considerable amount of external financing of three of those…

    • 330 Words
    • 2 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    Student Bailout Analysis

    • 692 Words
    • 3 Pages

    b. The current SLABS market is roughly $210 billion, and this market is invested in by both premier investment houses and smaller firms like banks, private equity firms, and hedge funds. The author lets the audience know that there are several parties that could be effected, not just one or two. c. SLABS only earn for investors as long as the underlying loans are paid off by their maturity dates- a scenario that is growing ever more unlikely as tuition costs continue to increase and employment and earning among college graduates remains stagnant.…

    • 692 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Superior Essays
    • 1788 Words
    • 8 Pages
    Superior Essays
  • Improved Essays

    Poverty” In the article “Race, Wealth, and Intergenerational Poverty” Darrick Hamilton and William Darity propose blacks families are less wealthy than whites. With recessions, it will negatively impact blacks and Latino families and will worsen the racial wealth gap. In relation, the writers introduce the term “the wealth gap”. By the reason of the wealth gap, the writers propose the help of the public sector (government) is essential.…

    • 491 Words
    • 2 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    In order to critically assess and contrast these theories it is necessary not only to define them, but also to discuss their respective strengths and weaknesses. The EMH is a financial theory asserting that market prices fully and rationally reflect all available information at all times, immediately adjusting…

    • 1001 Words
    • 5 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    However, these changes are not easy to implement, as they are only in the discussion stage. As Mr. Williams put it, “you don’t change horses in the middle of a stream,” and more so during the election year, with both the candidates focusing on reforming the Fed. Nonetheless, the traders will be riveted to the Fed Chair’s comments, to gain an insight on the likelihood of the next rate…

    • 550 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    National Debt and You National Debt is the net sum of annual budget deficits within the National government. Budget deficits occur when a government’s expenses exceed its revenue, or income. To reduce these differences, the Treasury will often issue bills, notes, and bonds in which people can invest their money to increase the government’s income. National Debt is not a recent concept. It has been a governmental problem since the Revolutionary War.…

    • 771 Words
    • 4 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Great Essays

    Interest Rate Parity Essay

    • 1113 Words
    • 5 Pages

    Biqing Huang; Xiaowei Liu October 2012 Journal of International Finance Studies;2012, Vol. 12 Issue 4, p85 Academic Journal) If the Interest Rate Parity (IRP) equilibrium condition does not hold, capital markets may not be efficient. Therefore opportunities for money managers, hedge funds, and other speculators to exploit market misalignments for profit may exist (Adrangi, et al., 2003). METHOD Presentation of…

    • 1113 Words
    • 5 Pages
    Great Essays
  • Improved Essays

    The United States government takes great care to regulate our economy, in hopes of sustaining economic growth and ensuring prosperity. A distressed economy is unlikely to have a greater positive impact on investors, consumers, or corporations than that of a prosperous one. Any increase in our economy’s total output (GDP) will directly correlate with an increase in tax revenue, assuming that tax rates remain stagnant. Maintaining this growth is necessary to provide consistent employment and thus placate a nation’s citizenry. High unemployment would lead to a decrease in consumer spending, economic growth, consumer confidence, and most importantly tax revenue.…

    • 644 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Decent Essays

    Treasury bonds are fixed interest rates so it helps other clients. Treasuries are debt obligations issued and backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Because they are considered to have low credit or default risk, they generally offer lower yields relative to other bonds. Since Treasury’s are safe, demand is high when there is uncertainty. The uncertainty following the 2008 financial crisis has made them very popular.…

    • 219 Words
    • 1 Pages
    Decent Essays
  • Superior Essays

    In practice, it is naïve to believe firms will not react to changes in the market, therefore leaving the assumption of zero conjectural variation false. To solve the Cournot…

    • 2031 Words
    • 9 Pages
    Superior Essays
  • Improved Essays

    Fundamental principle of investment is the relationship between the risk and return tradeoff, where if there is high risk it will compensate with high return as well as the low risk with lower return. The risk can be classified into two types which are systematic (uncontrollable) risk and unsystematic (controllable) risk. The examples of systematic risk are the interest rate risk, inflation risk, foreign exchange risk, country risk, political risk and market risk. Meanwhile, the example of unsystematic risk is business risk, liquidity risk and credit risk. However, all this risk can be diversified which by creating a well-diversified portfolio.…

    • 1111 Words
    • 5 Pages
    Improved Essays