# Complications Of The Theory Of Thirlwall's Growth Model

Thirlwall in his model argues that for true form of growth to exist the growth must be export oriented and there should be balance of payment equilibrium. As a starting point he takes the (Keynesian) demand-turned approach to know the major limitations on demand. He argues that instead of national income (output) being the sum of investment, consumption expenditure and exports, minus imports, it should be in growth perspective that national income growth be the weighted sum of growth of consumption, investment and also balance among imports and exports; in such an approach the part of exports is immediately clear. Thirlwall gives three reasons to support his theory of export based growth. Firstly, in an economic system,

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The coefficient of Verdoorn (λ) serves to overstate differences of growth rate among economies emerging from contrasts in different variables and parameters (which is, the higher the λ, the smaller will be the denominator, as η<0). On the off chance that λ=0, there is no embellishment of differences.

To know that country growth rates will have the tendency to veer through time, lies upon behavior of the model out of equilibrium. In a model of two-country, a vital condition for divergence is that growth rate of any one of countries wanders from its own particular equilibrium rate. An approach to consider a model not in equilibrium, and for the examination of its dynamics, is to place lags in equilibrium. If a one-period lag is placed into the equation of export growth, then a first order difference equation is attained, for which the solution

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If |γ η λ| > 1, then there will be explosive growth as t will increase. If |γ η λ|>1, then there will be convergence to equilibrium. If, for a while, we presume that γ=1, then it would mean that cumulative convergence will be away from equilibrium if |– η λ| > 1. Now given a Verdoorn coefficient of 0.5 would mean that a price elasticity of demand for exports be >2, and this is possible. However, in practical, we usually do not witness the growth rates among countries diverge with time. Per capita levels of income may diverge but not output growth. It is not because of the divergence between countries that cause their growth rates to differ, but it is due to differ in equilibrium growth rates, related mostly with differences in income elasticity of demands for export (ε). The thing that keeps growth on equilibrium is balance of payment equilibrium. Commonly, imports grow speedier than output. This implies that exports should likewise grow speedier than output. So this means that γ in the equation (1) will substantially be less than unity. If adjustment mechanism of balance of payment rules out the relative price changes, then γ will act as reciprocal of income elasticity demand for the