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150 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
Cone of silence
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area above a radar that cannot see any precipitation
-only applicable when theres one radar only |
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with range from radar there is _________ because of ____
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height; curve of earth
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Two modes of radar
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clear air vs. precipitation
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ASOS stands for and what is it part of; what does it do
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Automated Service Observation System; part of surface weather observation
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What is ASOS used for
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aviation and helps meteorologists study climate
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where/when is ASOS taken
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thousands of locations around world
airports, military bases, ships hourly basis |
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What are types of ASOS observations?
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automated, automated with manual augmentation, manual
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What are METARs/SPECIs
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coded weather observations transmitted globally
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What can ASOS/AWOS not measure
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hail, tornadoes, sleet, or show depth
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how can we observe thunderstorms
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human observers/sensors
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What are pieces of puzzle for weather observations
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surface weather observations, AWOS/ASOS, Upper Air/rawinsonde data, upper air/profiler data, NWS Cooperative climate data (CoCoRaHS), World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
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What are two types of upper air measurers?
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rawinsondes and profilers
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How high do rawinsondes get carried up?
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75,000-100,000 feet
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what is the downside of rawinsondes
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only taken ever 12 hours and costly (200000-250,000/yr)
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What are profilers/where do they measure/what do they measure
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like a doppler weather radar facing upwards made to fill holes of doppler radars
-CONTINUALLY transmits -measures wind direction/speed of UPPER AIR |
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downside of profilers?
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not getting the full data set like a rawinsonde
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What is National Weather Service Cooperative Climate Data and what is an example
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CoCoRaHS- peoples individual data
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What does WMO stand for and what does it do
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World Meteorological Organization
-responsible for international exchange of weather data & certifies that observation process does not vary between nations since all weather observations must be comparable |
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Where do people get forecasts from
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radio, tv, internet, newspaper
AMS/NWA (voluntary profession organizations) |
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What is AMS
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certified broadcast meteorologist (on air meteorologist)
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What are AMS/NWA
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radio and tv "seal of approval" programs
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What led to end of weather bunny era/creation of AMS
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April 3&4, 1974- worst tornado outbreak at the time
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who has authority to issue weather watches/warnings/advisories
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National Weather Service
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Weather Watch
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atmospheric conditions are favorable for the type of weather specified (generally larger geographic area; generally longer time span of 4-6 hours)
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Weather warning
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type of weather specified is imminent or is occurring (smaller geographic area; generally shorter time spans 1/2-1 hour)
-immediate threat to life/property ex: winter storm, flooding |
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Advisory
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type of weather is imminent or occurring but not a threat to life or property
ex: fog, freezing rain, heat |
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Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
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computer atmospheric "models" that are mathematical in nature and run 1-4 times a day (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)
-susceptible to data in/data out (mistakes result in outcome in mistakes entered initially) |
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What are problems with NWP (numerical weather prediction)
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-bad data in/bad data out
-models dont handle very cold air very close to ground -small disturbances/erros tend to be amplified with time (chaos) -data sprase areas of the world -cannot adequately interpret many of the factors that influence surface weather |
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meteorological cancer
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over reliance of forecasting tools on computers and computer models
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Methods of forecasting
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persistence forecasting, stead state/trend forecastin, analogue method forecasting, ensemble forecastic, climatological forecasting, probability forecasting
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persistence forecasting
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VERY short term
-short time period in a stable weather pattern |
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steady state/trend forecasting
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weather system coming at ___ mph, therefore front will arrive at _____
-noticing how quickly system is moving; assuming when it will arrive |
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problem with steady state/trend forecasting
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fronts and weather does not stay same speed
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analogue method forecasting
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comparing weather systems to ones in the past
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danger of analogue method forecasting?
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no two weather systems have ever been the exact same; we can only compare the similarities
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climatological forecasting
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similar to persistence
-using known climate patterns to forecast future forecasting (temp, etc) EX: predict that July 22 in texas the high wil be 101 |
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probability forecasting
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very misunderstood
forecaster certainty X areal coverage expected -NOTHING TO DO WITH AREAL COVER OR TIME |
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where is probability forecasting obtained from
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model data; purely statistical
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short term forecasting- how long/what is accuracy of predictions
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today, tonight-tomorrow
85-95% accuracy |
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medium term forecasting- how long/accuracy???
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2-3 days
80-85% accuracy |
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longer term forecasting- how long/accuracy???
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4-8 days
75% accuracy |
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Where are thunderstorms common
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warmer, equatorial climates- maritime tropical
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what do you need for thunderstorms to occur (3 things)
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atmospheric lift, moisture, instability
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cumulus stage of thunderstorm
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entire systems updraft drive (no rain or lightening)
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mature stage of t-storm
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updrafts/downdrafts coexist (most inclement weather)
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dissipation stage
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downdraft oriented (downdraft shuts down updraft)
-storm dying |
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how long does a thunderstorm last at most
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1 1/2 hours for everyday t-storm
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what determines how long t-storms last
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how long updraft can persist before being shut down by down draft
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what causes a major t-storm
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-LOTS of moisture, lift, instability
-strong winds aloft in upper level -creates vacuum |
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what are regular t-storms called
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single cell/air mass type storms
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what are long lasting storms called
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severe storms
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what percent of all t-storms are single cell/air mass type storms
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95%
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how many days a year is thunder recorded in ATX
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40-45 days
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why are there few t-storms on west coast
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cold moisture- stabilizing
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Characteristics of air mass thunderstorms
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greatest number of them worldwide
random not well organized short lived (1-1 1/2 hours) over escarpments within an airmass (MT) beneficial (rain in summer) downdraft cuts off updrafts & commits atmospheric suicide heating related- topo/geographically/daytime |
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describe atmospheric suicide
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"downdraft (colder dense air) cuts off updraft
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make makes tstorm severe
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-tornado presence
-1 in diameter or later hail (at SURFCE) -convective wind gusts of 50 knots/58 mph |
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what percent of tstorms are sever
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<5%
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what happens if updraft is separated from downdraft
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lasts longer
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why are t storms longer lasting
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well developed wind structure (2 hrs or longer)
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where do most severe t storms occur
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middle latitudes along cold fronts/dry lines
cP/mP/mT/cT boundaries |
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ingredients needed for severe t storms
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marginally unstable air
strong lifting mechanisms air flow aloft to encourage strong updrafts presence of initial temp. inversion creates lid on atmosphere violently broken by strong lifting mechanism |
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temperature inversion
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temp increases with height for short distance rather than decreased
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squall lines characteristics
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line of thunderstorms
density of t storms along line can determine severity of individual thunderstorms |
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broken squall line characteristics
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weather threats
larger hail sizes; weak tornadoes around breaks lines or in southernmost |
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scattered density squall line characteristics
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weather threats
mesocyclones/supercells stronger tornadoes larger hail |
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super cells characteristics
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tstorms that develop a strong internal wind structure (up/down drafts separated)
-long lasting that CONTROL environment -always severe -cause wind/hail damage often |
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mesoscyclones characteristics
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rotating updraft with an intense cumulonimus cloud (severe t storm)
-3-7 miles across -caused by strong wind speed/direction shear aloft -less than 20% produce tornadoes (discovered from doppler weather radar) |
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mesoscale convective complex (MCCs) characteristics
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number of individual t storms that grow in size and arrange/organize into large convective complex
-1000 X as large as average air mass t-storm -common plains into Miss. valley -blow NW to SE -doesnt produce many tornadoes -produces a lot of rain and lightening |
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derecho
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"striaght ahead/direct"
widespread/usually fast moving convective windstorm -damaging wind over areas hundreds of miles long and more than 100 miles across -not as well organized as MCCs |
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what is a step leader
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path of lightning is not always visible and lightning finds channel to get to found
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lightning discharge
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part of charge comes from ground and part comes from cloud
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steps of lightening
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1. step leader- finds channel to reach ground
2. lightning discharge- part of charge comes from ground/cloud 3. return stroke |
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what creates charge
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abundant amounts of water, ice, updrafts
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name charges with upper, lower cloud and group
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upper cloud- positive
lower cloud-negative group-positive |
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thunder
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explosive heating of air molecules around lightning
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what causes lightning
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separation of charges created by ice and water in the up and down drafts
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how far can lightning be away and strike?
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10-20 miles away
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when do people get strikes most often
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not raining
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when does lightning most often occur
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within 20 min of beginning of cumulus stage (going into mature stage)
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how many lightning strikes per second in world & how much in damage every year
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100/ $25 million
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how big is lightening bolt
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diameter of pencil
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how hot is lightning bolt
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5X surface of sun (up to 54,000 degrees F)
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how fast can strikes occur
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less than 1/10th of second
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how can you tell how far away lightning is
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5 seconds between lightning and thunder=1 mile distance away from stroke
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if there is lightning there is what somewhere
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thunderstorm
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what is heat lightning
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storm is too far away to hear thunder
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name types of lightning
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cloud to ground (LTGCG)
cloud to cloud (LTGCC) cloud to air (LTGCA) cloud to water (LTGCW) intracloud (LTGIC) |
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considering all lightning- what percents of types of lightning make up
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60% intracloud or cloud to cloud
20% cloud to ground |
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which is most dangerous type of lightning
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cloud to ground
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two most things that get hail damage
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cars and agriculture
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record hail size
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7 inches in diameter
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what determines hail size and storm severity
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storm's up/downdraft strength
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how fast an large hail travel
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100-125 mph
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what determines if hail is severe
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1 or greater in diameter
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largest hail falls what of tornadoes
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NE
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what is straightline thunderstorm wind
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mostly benign at around 30 mph, but occasinally can come to speeds of 100 mph
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what determines severe winds
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50 knots/58 mph
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what damage pattern do straightline winds have
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divergent
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what damage pattern do tornadoes have
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convergent
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what characterizes microburst
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2.5 miles or less in diameter
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macroburst
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greater than 2.5 miles in diameter
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where is danger in downbursts and who is most likely at danger
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aviation at lower levels (5oo miles) rather than 30,000 miles up
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flash flood
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leads to river flooding
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river flooding
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mainstream flooding
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flash flood capital of US
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south central TX
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why is South Central TX so prone to flash floods
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1. subsoil limestone rock layers
2. hilly nature of TX hill country 3. urbanization |
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what is one of leading causes of flooding
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stalled out stationary fronts where tstorms are stationary
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tornadoes
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intesnse rotating column of air that portrudes from base of a cumulonimbus cloud in shape of a funnel that touches the ground
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what percent of all thunderstorms produce tornadoes
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<1%
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atmospheric pressure is about _____ percent less than standard atmospheric pressure in tornados
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10
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weak tornadoes characteristics and what percentage and storm damage category(s)
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thin, rope like
80% of all tornadoes EF0, EF1 damage |
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weak tornadoes lifetime/percentage of US tornado fatalities
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10 min or less
less than 5% |
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weak tornado wind speed/path length/path width
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speed: 65-110 mph
path length 3 miles path width 90 yards |
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strong tornadoes characteristics/percentage/storm damage categorys
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classic, wider funnel
19% of all tornadoes EF2, EF3 |
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strong tornadoes percent of US tornado fatalities, lifetime
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30%
20 min or more |
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strong tornadoes wind speed/path length and path width
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wind speed- 111-165 mph
length 15+ miles width 200 yards |
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violent tornadoes characteristics, percentage of all tornadoes, damage categories
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very wide wedge funnel
<1% of all tornadoes EF4, EF5 |
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violent tornadoes percent of all US tornado fatalities, lifetime
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70%; 60 + minutes
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violent tornadoes wind speed/path length and width
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166-318 mph
25+miles 600 yards width |
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EF0 damage
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light
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EF1 damage
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moderate
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EF2 damage
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considerable
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EF3 damage
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severe
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EF4 damage
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devastating
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EF5
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incredible
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tornado definition
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rapidly rotating column of air
extends from cumulonimbus cloud touches ground may not always be visible if DEBRIS CLOUD IS VISIBLE NEAR GROUND- IT IS TORNADO |
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funnel cloud
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when debris cloud is not visible near ground but has all over characteristics of tornado
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two scales for tornados
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strength scale and damage fujita scale
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most tornados in northern hemisphere rotate ____
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counter clockwise
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temperature profile of tornadoes
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unknown
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tornadoes are more frequent in where than any other part of world
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north america
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where are tornadoes most common in US
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south/central US plains/mississippi valley
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when are tornadoes most frequent (what time of day)
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3-7 pm local time
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when do 50% of tornadoes happen
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april, may, june
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when do 75% of tornadoes occur
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march-july
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which month holds greatest number of tornadoes
which month holds most violent tornadoes |
may/april
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average US tornado movement is from ___ to ____
what is exception and direction |
southwest to northeast
exception is texas- direction is E/SE to W/NW |
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average US tornado sped
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30 mph
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annually average amount of US tornadoes
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1300
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four types of thunderstorms
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single cells, multicell clusters, multicell lines, supercells
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non severe thunderstorms are found where in regards to airmass
severe tstorms?? |
within mT airmass
severe- on boundary of MT airmass |
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name frequencies of lightning and appropriate number of flashes
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occasional (OCNL) less than 1 flash/minute
Frequent (FQT) 1-6 flashes per minute Continuous (CNS) more than 6 flashes per minute |
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which charge is more frequent/dangerous regarding lightning
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positive is less frequent but more deadly
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how are aviation weather observations observed regarding thunderstorms
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begin when first thunder is heard and ends 15 minutes after last thunder is heard
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lightning capital of US
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florida
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which is more common- straight line thunderstorm winds or tornadoes
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straight line thunderstorm winds
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what are straight line thunderstorm winds also referred as
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downbursts
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number one weather killer in US
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summer heat
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what determines evaporative cooling?
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amount of environmental moisture present
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