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76 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Who uses surveys?? 5 answers (MCIGC)
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1- Media Organizations
2- Candidates and Political Organizations 3- Issues Organizations 4- Governments 5- Corporations |
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Current Limitations of Polling "Industry" 5 answers
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1- Continuing proliferation of polls (and pseudo polls)
2- Continuing decrease in response rates 3- Internet-based surveys 4- Rise of cell phones 5- Advent of new techniques for interviewing (IVR) |
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Why study public opinion?? (6 reasons)
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1- In Democratic States, policy should rest on public opinion
2- Respect for Public Opinion is a Safeguard against Demagoguery 3- Public Opinion Provides Clues about Culture 4- Public Opinion must at times be mobilized 5- Public opinion dictates the bounds of foreign policy 6- Allows citizens to understand what other Americans believe |
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5 Enduring Problems of Public Opinion (LLTDS)
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1- Lack of Competence
2- Lack of Resources 3- Tyranny of the majority 4- Domination by Elites 5- Susceptibility to Persuasion |
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Lippman's 2 levels of "The Public"
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1- Actors
2- Spectators Based on pseudoenvironments |
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Zaller's 3 levels of "The Public"
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1- Political Sophisticates
2- Mass Middle 3- People who can't name VP |
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Converse's 3 levels of Public (Ideology)
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1- Actively use ideological terms
2- Near ideologues 3- Ideologically Innocent |
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Stimson's 3 levels of Public (PSU)
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1- Passionate
2- Scorekeepers 3- Uninvolved |
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Issue Publics
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small groups of people who follow one or more particular issue very closely. they'll be very knowledgable about that one issue but not any others
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4 Underlying Assumptions of Zaller's Theory (CKCS)
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1- Citizens vary in attention and exposure
2- Knowledge is a critical part of reaction formation 3- Citizens don't have fixed attitudes on every issue, rather they construct "opinion statements" on the fly 4- "Salience" is key to polling responses #3 and #4 are mainly pertaining to non-attitudes |
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2 Limitations of Zaller
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1- Most people don't have solid opinions
2- Polling is a very imperfect way to get at what opinions they do have |
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3 Problems with Polling (RRQ)
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1- Response instability over time
2- Response effects (certain questions of the survey influence people's answers to later questions) 3- Question wording effects |
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4 Methods of Measuring Public Opinion (ECFS)
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1- Experiments
2- Content Analysis of Media Coverage 3- Focus Groups 4- Surveys |
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What Zaller's RAS model explains ("learn" & "convert")
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1- How citizens learn about matters that are for the most part beyond our direct experience
2- How citizens convert this info into opinions (opinion statements) |
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Zaller: Predisposition Definition
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Citizens aren't just passive receivers of information. Their interests, values and experiences impact their acceptance or rejection of information.
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Zaller: Considerations
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any reason that might induce an individual to decide a political issue one way or the other. They are a combination of cognition and affect (belief). Carried in elite discourse
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2 Types of Political Message
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1- Persuasive: arguments or images providing a reason for taking a position of point of view. If accepted they become considerations.
2- Cueing: contextual info about the ideological or partisan implications of a persuasive message. Enables citizens to perceive the relationship between the persuasive message they receive and their political predispositions. |
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Zaller's 4 Axioms (RRAR)
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1- Reception
2- Resistance 3- Accessibility 4- Response |
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Mainstream and Polarization Effects
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1- Mainstream: When political elites agree on an issue, people receive one message and tend to agree with this position. Especially those with greater awareness.
2- Polarization Effects: When political elites disagree on an issue, public opinion tends to be polarized. People with greater awareness will have attitudes coinciding with existing predispositions and follow the elites along their party line |
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What influences/correlates with political knowledge? (2 answers)
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1- Demographic
Education = best predictor of knowledge Age Affluence 2- Attention and interest in politics/current events |
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2 Competing Schools of Thought about Democratic Competence Levels
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1- Most citizens lack sufficient knowledge to make meaningful choices about policy that represent their true interests
2- Others argue that using information shortcuts, citizens (either individually or at least at an aggregate level) can approximate the requisite levels of knowledge needed to make choices that do represent their interests |
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Heuristics
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Mental shortcuts used for processing and understanding information – can be
used to decide who to vote for or whether to support or oppose a policy. |
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5 Examples of Heuristics in Politics (PIEVC)
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1- Party ID
2- Ideology 3- Endorsement by specific groups 4- Viability (poll numbers) 5- Candidate appearance |
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Collective Opinion Model
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Heuristics on Macro scale.
Crowd more rational than individuals. Assumes that error in individual opinions is random and thus smooths out in the aggregate |
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Kinder's 4 Findings about Ideological Literature (Analysis/Responses/Other/gen. verd)
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1-Analysis of Converse’s original research
2- Responses and revisions to Converse 3- Other relevant literature/theories 4- General verdict on the overarching question |
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Converse's Findings about Ideology (2.5/10/88%)
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Most people do not adhere to a set of beliefs/ideology or have a clear grasp of what ideology is
2.5% actively use ideological terms 10% near ideologues 88% ideological innocent |
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Converse: Constraints Definition
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the degree to which a particular belief is predictive of another belief. Farther up pyramid, more
tightly constrained |
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Converse Pyramid Example
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The top of the pyramid = elites. The views of elites are tightly constrained and don't overlap with the other "pyramids" (belief systems).
The bottom of the pyramids (mass middle groups) overlap with the other pyramids because their views aren't as set in stone in a certain ideology like the elites. |
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Nie, Verba and Petrocik Findings
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found increase in ideology in 1964
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Conover & Feldman (1981) Findings
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found relationship between i.d. as
liberal or conservative and people’s issue positions, but not strong relationship |
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Lane Findings
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Says people do have ideologies/opinions. Examines the process of political reasoning (as opposed to it’s products). Different definition of ideology, closer to values: Equality, freedom, democracy
He only interviewed 15 people |
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Kinder's Findings
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Most Americans ARE ideologically innocent (no overarching framework for their beliefs). But they DO have political opinions.
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Kinder's Description of People's Opinions (3 Words, FND)
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Fragmented, narrow, and diverse
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5 Pluralistic Roots of Political Beliefs (PSGVI)
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1- Personality
2- Self interest 3- Group Identification 4- Values 5- Inferences from History |
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Enduring Values of Americans
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Egalitarianism/Equality
Individualism Democracy Limited Government Capitalism Freedom Moral Traditionalism |
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Self Interest: Busing Study (Green and Cowden 1992)
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There was a universal hostility to busing among all whites regardless of whether busing would affect the person.
Enduring values/beliefs of limited government and hostility towards minorities were what drove attitudes...not self interest |
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Green and Cowden 1992 Findings about Behavior (not attitudes)
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Self interest makes a much stronger showing when the dependent variable is political behavior rather than public opinion.
So while both parents who were affected and who weren't affected believed busing was bad, only those affected would actually go out and protest and get signatures against it |
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Self Interest: Bartels Estate Tax Findings
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Positions highly correlated with feelings about own tax burden but NOT with own likeliness to benefit from the repeal.
Poor and middle class both more likely to support repeal. Key = unshakeable underlying American values that reject taxing someone’s inheritance |
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4 Conditions Under Which Self Interest Matters
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1- SUBSTANTIAL benefits or harms
2-Benefits or harms WELL-PUBLICIZED 3. Benefits and harms CLEAR AND CERTAIN 4. Claim is seen as LEGITIMATE/FAIR |
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2 Examples of Self Interest Counting in Opinions
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1- Cigarette Tax
2- Property Tax (Prop 13 California) |
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Brader: Affective Intelligence Definition
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Emotion motivates reason. They aren't necessarily in competition with one another
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Definition of Emotional Appeals
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Communications intended to elicit an emotional response for some or all who receive them
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2 Main Types of Emotional Appeals
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1- Fear
2- Enthusiasm |
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Brader's Experiment- Methodology
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Two parallel experiments conducted during an
actual election: 1-evaluates enthusiasm based emotional cues enhancing positive messages 2- evaluates impact of fear or threat cues added to negative messages |
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Brader: 2 Elements Manipulated to Change Emotional Appeal
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1- Music/audio
2- Visuals Message kept constant |
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Brader: 2 Dependent Variables
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1- Cued emotional recall - reporting feelings
2- Changes in 3 types of political behavior a. Motivation to get involved b. Vigilance c. Persuasion |
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Brader: Findings (General)
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Political ads can change the way citizens get involved and make choices simply by using images and music to evoke emotions.
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Brader: Findings (Enthusiasm vs Fear)
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Enthusiasm: Greatly improved motivation to vote. No impact on vigilance. Activated existing loyalties to candidate in ad. Good for increasing existing loyalties.
Fear: No change in motivation. Stimulates vigilance. Facilitates persuasion to change candidate choice. Effective in triggering re-evaluation. |
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What 4 social groups might matter in forming public opinion? (CRER)
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1- Class
2- Race 3- Ethnicity 4- Religion |
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Race: Kinder & Sanders, 5 Policy Proposals Looked At
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Used NES data (1986)
Ensuring non discrimination in education Employment Spending on programs that help blacks Affirmative Action Hiring Quotas |
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Race: Kinder & Sanders Results
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Showed more effect than class did.
Most Blacks for the proposals, most Whites against them. Controlling for class didn't change anything. |
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Racialization
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society in a political sphere where things are consciously or unconsciously more about race
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Ethnicity: Hispanics
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Generally strong in-group agreement with Hispanics on immigration and disagreement with discrimination like the AZ law.
Differing opinions about unauthorized (illegal) immigration policies. |
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Religion: 2 gaps in 2004
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1- Religious Affiliation
2- Religious Attendance Strong predictor of vote acc to social policies |
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Micro Implications of RAS Model
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Individual opinion shaped by salient considerations
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Macro Implications of RAS Model
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Mass opinion is shaped by political communication which is mostly elite discourse and media coverage
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Hypodermic Model of Media Effects
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Early to mid 1900s
Media can control citizens Advent, growth of advertising; FDR; dictators in Europe Assumes that media is extremely powerful and that citizens are not sophisticated enough to ward off media messages Solid evidence never found (in academia) |
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Minimal Effects Model of Media Effects
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Mid 1900s
Media have minimal effects because citizens have pre-existing attitudes and predisposition filter media Lazarfeld et al 1940 election: Reinforcement effects- reinforces existing decisions among those who’ve picked a candidate Activation effects- if undecided, made you pay attention, though generally to things that represented your POV Conversion effects- found little evidence of this. 2 step flow of communication: media -> opinion leaders -> others |
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Subtle Effects Model of Media Effects
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McCombs and Shaw’s research about the 1968 presidential election, compared
a- Media coverage of the campaign b- What voters said (in surveys) were key issues Found they tracked • Coverage of X went up so then people’s concern of X went up as well. Concluded that media set the agenda by establishing which campaign issues are considered important in the minds of the voters |
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News That Matters- Iyengar and Kinder, General Info
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Television news “shapes the American public’s conception of political life in pervasive ways”
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Iyengar and Kinder- Findings (Agenda Setting)
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Participants emerged from the experiments believing the target problem was more important than they did when they began.
By attending to some problems and ignoring others, television news shapes the American public’s political priorities |
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Iyengar and Kinder- Findings (Priming)
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Found that news media does prime citizens
By focusing on some issues and ignoring others, television news help set the standards that viewers apply to Presidential performance News coverage impacts American’s assessment of presidential responsibility |
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Cohen 1963 Quote (What to Think About...)
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“The mass media may not be successful much of the time in telling people what to think, but the media stunningly successful in telling their audience what to think about”
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4 Reasons why Frames are Inevitable
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1- Reporters need to make an event understandable to give viewers or readers a way to understand events
2- Politicians want their frames to be used 3- People have their own frames 4- In surveys- context/details necessary information |
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Dilliplane Experiment- Results
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o 1- Greater exposure to like-minded TV news programs energizes people
o 2- Greater exposure to TV news programs of the opposite political persuasion enervates people o Campaign Activities • Likeminded news increases campaign activity • Conflicting news decreases campaign activity o Timing of Vote Decision • Likeminded news leads to earlier decision • Conflicting news leads to later decision o Turnout • Likeminded doesn’t increase turnout • Conflicting doesn’t decrease turnout |
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Campaign Effects- Primary Elections
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1- Primary coverage focuses even more heavily on horse race
2- Campaign matters a lot, impact vote choices Lots of candidates, complicated media environment Citizens are less anchored Can’t rely on party id |
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Bartels 1988 Study about Primary Elections
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• As uncertainty decreases, importance of predisposition goes up
• More you learn about candidates allows you to match them with your various predispositions/views Also takes into account likelihood of the candidate winning the general election. |
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Bartels 1988: 3 Types of Candidate
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1- Celebrate/well known
2- Lost 3- Emergent |
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3 Views of General Election Effects
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1- Journalists
Think every day matters 2- Campaign and Ad Professionals Also think it matters 3- Political Scientists Not so much. Dilliplane & Lazarsfeld. |
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Monroe Study- Effect of Public Opinion on Policy Formation
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o When people want change, 41% of the time nothing changes but 59% of the time there is a change.
o When people want status quo, 76% of the time the status quo stays in place. Only changes 24% of the time. |
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Page and Shapiro- Congruence
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o Found that the bigger the change in opinion, the higher % of congruent policy change occurring.
• If it was only 6-7% in one direction, then there was a 53% congruent change • If it was 30+% in one direction, then 100% congruent change |
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Trustees
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Some people think that policymakers should be trusted to make tough decisions on things they don’t have the time to research and form ideas about
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Delegates
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Some people think policymakers should simply voice other people’s opinions
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Stimson: Politics at the Margin
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Public opinion moves based on changes among a small minority of the public (the margin)
A small but key portion of public accounts for the fact that public opinion is responsive Opinion moves intelligently in response to most important facts |
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Change at the Margin: Scorekeepers
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• Change at the margin reflects the behavior of the scorekeepers. Paying enough attention to respond and not so involved as to be committed always to one side. Not choosing a direction, rather hiring managers to do a better job than the last guy.
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7 domestic policy domains related to size and power of government
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1- Education
2- Health care 3- Cities 4- Environment 5- Race 6- Welfare 7- Taxes |
