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25 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Ad hoc |
Accepting or rejecting a hypothesis in order to preserve a favored one |
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Alternative hypothesis |
An idea that yields the same predictions as a different idea, but both cannot be true |
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Auxiliary hypothesis |
Assumes experimental conditions are normal or that a background theory is true |
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Conjunction |
The truth of the whole depends on all parts being true |
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Crucial tests |
Disconfirms one idea while confirming an opposing idea |
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Disjunction |
The whole is false only when all parts are false |
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Expected utility |
Joins the likelihood of an outcome with the value of that outcome |
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Gambler's fallacy |
Uses the law of averages to assume that an unusual series of events will be reversed shortly |
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Mutual exclusion |
If one event occurs, then other possible events cannot occur |
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Prior probability |
Chance of an idea before results are taken into account |
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Statistical syllogism |
Too close to 50/50? Is the individual atypical? Closeness to 100%? Is individual typical? |
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Ad Hominem |
Is statement not relevant? How relevant? |
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Ad populum |
Opinion of masses relevant? How strong is expertise of masses? |
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Appeal to authority |
Person outside subfield of expertise? Failing to represent field? Belief not a considered one? How deep is expertise? Closeness to 100% agreement in field? |
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Argument by analogy |
Poetry or illustration of argument? Are traits the same? Does trait in conclusion belong in group of shared traits? How strong is connection between traits in premise and conclusion? How many traits shared? How many other groups of traits do the objects share? |
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Slippery slope |
Does slope really exist? Is there justifiable reason to draw an arbitrary break in slope? Is it better for the slope to be allowed than to stop it? How strong are connections in slope? How strong is justification to not allow an arbitrary break? How strong is the justification for stopping the slope? |
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Sampling (inductive generalization) |
Is sample size too small? Does sample accurately represent population in conclusion? How large is sample size? How carefully has sample been matched to conclusion? Weaker the conclusion, stringer the argument (margin of error) |
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Prospective vs retrospective studied |
Pro - manipulate cause to effect Retro - start with effect to find causes |
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Mill's Methods |
Agreement - common antecedent Diff - one case vs others, not groups Joint - if there's a baseline/groups Concomitant - varying expectedly |
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6 causes |
Necessary - without a b cannot occur Sufficient - if a occurs b must occur Deterministic - sufficient causal against background Probabilistic - increases probability of occurrence Proximate - nearest in time/space to event Agent casually responsible for some action/event |
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5 causal fallacies |
Post Hoc - no connection; assuming one event causes the other bc they occur together Ignoring a Common clause - Confusing cause and effect - Genetic fallacy - source taken as evidence for or against statement Consequence as evidence - "wishful thinking"; rejecting/accepting without evidence |
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Decision under certainty |
When you know for certain what the outcome will be from all of your choices.
RULE: highest utility (make the choice that carries the highest utility) |
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Decision under risk |
More than one possible result from your choices and you can assign probabilities to all of those possible results RULE: Maximize expected utility |
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Decision under uncertainty |
More than one possible result from at least one of your decisions but you don't know probabilities of at least one of them RULE: dominating choice (gamble, play it safe, calculate) |
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Contingent vs self contradictory vs tautology |
Contingent - true and false Self-contradictory - all false Tautology - all true |
