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138 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Origins of Realism
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Thucydides (Greek Scholars)
-Based on war between Sparta & Athens -Bigger one, always wins Machiavelli -wrote book on getting/maintaining power “The Prince” -amoral -be cruel only necessary -get ride of all your enemies including family -advocates learning language & customs of new place Hobbs -state of nature -hypothetical situation with no government life is “nasty-brutish & short” -“The Leviathan” - overbearing government allows daily life to function |
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Premise and Expectations of Realism
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-negative view on human nature states are a reflection of this
-war is common -countries constantly preparing for war |
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Tenets of Realim
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-State is key actor in International Relations
-State is a unitary, rational actor -unitary assumes that you dont take into account inner politics or actor of a country -rational best possible payout -leaders are all rational -each state pursues its national interests as defined by power -balance of power states respond to changes in relation to power -military issues predominate |
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Origins of Liberalism
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-Immanuel Kant 18th century
-Wilson WWI -14 point plan -need institutions -prevent war forever |
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Premise and Expectations of Liberalism
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-optimistic
-most countries are at peace most of the time -cooperation is possible -war is uncommon -human rights |
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Tenets of Liberalism
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-states are not the only actors
-states are not unitary actor competing interests of state -interdependence characterizes international politics -low politics just as important as high politics -international institutions are important in promoting cooperation -democracies don't fight other democracies |
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Neoconservatism
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-foreign policy hawks
-Democratic Peace -US obligation to change the world -using military to reach goals -value based |
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Roosevelt Corollary
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-much more interventionist
-US right to intervene in Latin America |
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Monroe Doctrine
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no euro expansion into western hemisphere
no interference unless provoked |
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George Washington
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no treaties entangling alliances
obsession with staying independent trade |
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WWI
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Wilson tries to keep US out of the war but is dragged in
Liberal philosophy to end war league of nations 14 point plan wasn't ratified |
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George Kennan
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-USSR staying out of IMF/World Bank
-Stalin Speeches -Kennan telegram warms of old school Russian policy and that no good will gestures would work -releases anonymous article that emphasizes containment and USSR ideologically are expansionist -Kennan influences Truman |
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Truman Doctrine
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speech for aid to Greece & Turkey
Pledge to protect all countries from communist uprisings |
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Bureaucratic Politics
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Graham T Allison Model-
-one of the first to focus on whether rationality assumption is valid -actors are constrained by Standard Operating “Bounded Rationality” -organizations are bounded by SOP's and only look at part of the info Bureaucratic Politics Model -bargaining process -“where one stands depends upon where one sits” Governmental Politics Model -leader looking for consensus for policy -rationality assumption does not hold |
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Rational actor model (60's)
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-one of the first to focus on whether rationality assumption is valid
-actors are constrained by Standard Operating “Bounded Rationality” -organizations are bounded by SOP's and only look at part of the info |
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Bureaucratic Politics Model
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bargaining process
“where one stands depends upon where one sits” |
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Governmental Politics Model
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leader looking for consensus for policy
rationality assumption does not hold |
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Kresner's Critique of Allison
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realism
allison's model does not hold President's role -president shapes his own cabinet -looks at other cases where advisors took position against their “seat” |
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Rhodes case study on Navy
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Intra-service Parochialism (limited view)
submarine navy surface navy aircraft navy -The Chief of Navy Operations (CNO) -looks at CNO behavior -no correlation with origin of CNO and CNO behavior |
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A good theory
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generalizability
accuracy replicable parsimony-explains a lot with only a little |
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Rationalist Theory
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Assumptions
assuming people make decisions basically the same way assume perfect information cost benefit analysis believe people change beliefs based on environment |
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Psychological Theory
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-Foreign Policy Change (under same leader drastic change in foreign policy)
cognitive openness some people change easier than others cognitive complexity some people see world as black and white, some gray people are reluctant to change beliefs filter information to support beliefs some people change beliefs easier than others |
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cognitive openness
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some people change easier than others
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cognitive complexity
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some people see world as black and white, some gray
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Perception/misperception model
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(Jarvis)
anarchy → uncertainty → misperception -explain why we go to war decision makers tend to see other states as more hostile than they are -actors tend to see the behaviors as more centralized, -disciplined and organized than it really is -when a adversary does something good we attribute that to ourselves -when a adversary does something bad we attribute that to their stereotypes |
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Groupthink
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what is it
-more prone to irrational actions -ignore alternatives symptoms -illusion of invulnerability -collective rationalization -believe in inherent morality -stereotyped views of out groups -direct pressure on dissenters -self censorship illusion of unanimity -self appointed mind guard (one person that self appoints to enforce group decision) Examples -bay of pigs Remedies -assign roles of critical evaluator to each member -leader should avoid expressing preferences at the outset -discuss deliberations of group with someone from the outside -include outside experts inside -assign role of devils advocate to someone set aside time to survey warning signals from outside Criticisms -how do you prove it? -Selection bias -always happen to be negative events |
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Realism view of leaders
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-systemic
-refers to interaction of one state to another state -not looking inside state “black box” -looks at alliances -military power -natural resources -geography -population stability |
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Neoliberalism view of Leaders
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looking inside state
-bureaucracy -political systems/type of regieme -political party -public opinion -factions -religion major companies -private organizations -education -infrastructure -opposition |
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Individual level of leaders
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looking at leader or key advisor
look at ideas and how they influence foreign policy |
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structure-agency debate
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structure
-situational factors (military strength, balance of power) Agency -people, leaders, advisors Ex WWI cause → alliances structural explanation Ex WWII cause → Hitler agency |
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Machiavelli on leaders
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in order to be successful need luck
need strength, skills and cunning |
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Mainstream political scientists on leaders
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ignore the role of leaders
thinking that leaders are related to psychological hard to generalize hard to study leaders b/c they are not accessible not parsimonious |
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Herman & Hagan
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leaders perceive and interpret constraints differently
leaders disagree some leaders are more sensitive to domestic opposition |
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the “two presidencies thesis”
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head of state
head of government |
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Executive office of the President
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National Security Council
-most important Military office economic office expands with needs of president |
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Advisory system
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close knit network of aids and confidents
-Vice President --Walter Mondale- first VP -chief of staff varies based on personal preference |
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codependency
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shared between legislative & executive
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stewardship theory
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Roosevelt's call for a stronger executive
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Prerogative powers
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president's power to take independent & binding decisions especially concerning foreign policy
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Formal Powers of President
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Command in chief
Negotiates & signs treaties -check by senate 2/3 vote -executive agreements can bypass appoints cabinet secretaries and ambassadors -approved by senate unless out of session conducts diplomacy |
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Informal Powers of President
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sets foreign policy agenda
state of the union public addresses, interviews, etc. President takes initiative Organizes chain of command |
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President's advantages over congress
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national constituency
party leader always in session bureaucracy's CEO control over information |
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Judicial Rulings that have blocked the president
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pentagon papers 1971
-blocks Nixon from stopping NY times from publishing intel Hamden vs Rumsfeld -stops Bush's military commissions at Guantanamo |
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Imperial Presidency
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modern presidency characterized by secrecy and unchecked powers, even going above the constitution
loss of confidence in White House Bush -expanded powers -US Mail Act -Patriot Act |
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Unified Government
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one party controls the legislature & executive
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Divided Government
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one party controls the white house and another holds congress
divided more common -structural organization -split ticked voting -decline in parties People trying to balance power -advantage of no extreme policy -disadvantage of gridlock |
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Recent Congressional trends
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careerism
polarizations- more partisanship and more gridlock public discontent |
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Senate
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50 senators with 6 year terms
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House of Representatives
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450 representatives with 2 years terms
majority party are chairs minority party are ranking members |
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Foreign Policy Committee
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confirm ambassadors in senate
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Armed Services Committee
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control funding and benefits
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Appropriations Committee
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allocate money
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Senate Finance/ House Ways & Means
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trade
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Judiciary Committee
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terrorism
International crime |
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Congressional Checks
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Power of the Purse
Oversight Legislative Veto or over come veto Creates Law |
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Interest Groups
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associations of individuals/organization that attempt to influence public policy in their interest.
-Not political parties -act outside politics specifically Factors under their control money -create PAC PAC used to funnel money Single Issue Interest Group -more effective Size & Membership -bigger & better Access -need government relations |
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Pluralism
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Decision making model that sees policy as the result of competing interest groups. the government is often pictured as a neutral umpire making policy to reflect position of strongest groups
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Strategies of interest groups
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-lobby congress
-lobby white house -approaching judiciary -appeals to public -demonstrations -violent protest |
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Media's Primary Roles
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source of information & opinions
agenda setter government watchdog -serves as a check on government -however debate over whether thats true |
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Criticisms of Foreign News Coverage
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dominance of TV
US centrism Conflict Orientation Superficiality Arbitrariness parachute journalism- when media outlet sends someone to an area then leaves fast Corporate Control |
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Corporate Control of Media
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Deregulatory moves
-deregulated to increase competition but did the opposite Handful of Media Giants -few companies control almost all channels -Media monopolies in US cities Implication -growing exclusion of community voices -mostly national voices -increasing instances of new corps. Demanding unethical acts -blurring lines between news & entertainment -profit maximizing & commercialism drive priorities -news tends not to challenge elite interests |
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CNN effect
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24 hour news cycle has impact on FP b/c broadcasts same images repeatedly which drives people to put pressure on government
-CNN effect holds when president is undecided -when the President is decided no CNN effect |
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Manufacturing Consent Theory
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media manufactures consent for elites
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Public Diplomacy (whether we have an impact)
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efforts by our government to promote our policies abroad
Voice of America and other media sponsored by the government speeches to foreign public |
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Impact of Social Media
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decentralized
has potential to appeal to a global audience no need for production skills immediacy and impermanence many rival countries believe the US government is driving social media internet freedom has become a part of US foreign policy Can serve as a mobilizer Media ecosystem |
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Media ecosystem
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not just one thing that drove the revolution but many things come together
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civil society
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-people or groups not part of government
-ideas from groups or associations not from government is good for democracy -some say middle east is not democratic b/c of weak civil society -Strong civil society helped bring down Soviet Russia -not always a good thing: Nazi Germany |
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Latent Public Opinion
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unstated but deeply held view that American people have
views create range of FP |
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USFP and Public Opinion
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US is a “small state” overshadowed by a “large society”
government doesn't decide everything civil society |
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Leaders Manipulate Public Opinion
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-Seymour Martin Lipset
president makes opinion Methods used by presidents -focusing on particular issues in speeches & interviews -strategically timing actions for political advantages -creatively interpreting events (spin) Public Relations Presidency -guided by public opinion |
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Uneven access to FP
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Mass public
-who are neither well informed or interested and there is little influence Attentive public -about 10% substantial knowledge but lack access to participate Foreign Policy Elite -small segment of the population that has the interest and means to influence -CEO's, Interest Groups, think tanks, pundits, journalists, government officials, advisors & staff |
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Model of Representation
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Delegate- reflect public opinion which most elected officials follow
Trustee- greater freedom of thought and action |
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Almond-Lippmann Consensus
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public opinion is volatile & erratic
incoherent & contradictions irrelevant |
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Theories of War & Public Opinion
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war tends to unite us
tend to no abandon leaders during war & favors incumbent |
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Diversionary Theory of War
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presidents provoke conflict in order to boost ratings at home
hard to prove |
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Traditional Notions of Security
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military security
More expansive definition can include everything from economic to environmental. |
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Spectrum of Armed Combat
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inverse relationship between deadliness of a conflict and the likelihood it will occur.
Why havent we died? Realists- MAD Constructivists- norms against nuclear weapons Luck |
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External Element of Grand Strategies
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strategic environment
sovereign territory integrity |
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Internal Elements of Grand Strategies
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Geopolitical Assets
strategic culture- widely shared beliefs, attitudes & policy preference state-society relations (civil society) structural arrangements- governing bodies & legal system economy Military |
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soft power
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Joeseph Nye
early 2000 ability to get what you want through attraction rather the coercion or payment. Through the contagious appeal of our ideals, culture, values, etc Example China -putting in substantial money and workers in Africa to build infrastructure for free but makes sure everyone knows it. Downsides clash of cultures (ex. Movies) seen as hostile politically difficult to justify at home globalization can't control culture |
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“ Smart Power”
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being able to combine hard & soft power and use them effectively
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economic liberalism
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competition
free enterprise private property Adam Smith free economy distinctly American Basis of Revolution |
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Socialism
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equality
free markets produce disparities of wealth results in exploitation of workers redistribution of wealth Scandinavia |
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Economical Nationalism (neo-mercantilism)
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commercial activity is only fruitful if serves the interests of the state whose power depends on the accumulation of wealth
Ex. China, Japan, Korea |
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A two level game
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domestic & international
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Foreign Aid
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Objectives
-stimulating marked based growth -washington consensus -combating spread of HIV/ AIDS -easing the burden of International debt for countries that face extreme policy -supporting emergency response & reconstruction after national disasters -countering threat of international terrorism tradeoffs |
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US foreign aid
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less than 1% of budget
very unpopular general sentiment that it is bigger than it really is top 2= Israel, Egypt don't invest much in Africa but a lot in middle east |
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boycott
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restriction on another country's goods/services
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divestment
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withdrawal of assets from foreign country and ban on future investment
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embargo
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refusal to provide goods/services to a country abroad
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freezing assets
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impoundment of domestically held financial assets owned by government or citizens of target country
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Criticisms of Sanctions
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sanctions rarely have their desired effect
only 4% of sanctions have political effect on target citizens suffer the most need unity to be effective |
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Post Cold War Era trends
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maintain role of superiority
military might nuclear proliferation expansion of NATO doctrine of preemption “do it alone” policy of Bush |
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Paul Kennedy
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(declinist) 80's
imperial overstretch involved in too many places overextended military reiterated 20 years later Fiscal deficits will hold us back shift towards Asia |
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Fareed Zakaria
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China & India will be major challengers
primarily decline is economic no geopolitical economic issues are reversible fiscal responsibility & soft power needed |
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Niall Furguson
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empires declines b/c of malfunction
not cyclical and if decline will decline fast deficit is a major concern |
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Brooks and Wohlforth
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will remain unipolar b/c there are no structural constraints
no major coalition against US b/c there is no need for one. Better off under current system |
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Josef Joffe
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remain unipolar
huge gaps with military and economy China's growth is exaggerated the important long term investments are more more important |
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security dilemma
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measures a states take to increase its security that decrease the security of other states. Other states increase in response therefore making the state less secure
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nuclear deterrence
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prevention of hostility through the threat of using nuclear weapons
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extended deterrence
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the avowed nuclear retaliation against attacks not only on state's territory but also their allies
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MAD
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why USSR & US didnt use weapons b/c would have caused unacceptable losses making stability
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Massive retaliation
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promise of using nuclear weapons to annihilate another state that threatens vital interests.
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Flexible Response
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range of military actions both nuclear & conventional in response to Soviet actions
so you don't limit your ability to respond |
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Waltz
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(realism)
countries should have nuclear weapons in order to create balance tif two countries have weapons they won't attack therefore every country should have nukes under rationalists assumption post nuclear weapons there is peace in Europe |
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Sagan
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(non-proliferation)
argues safety is a concern especially in new states newer states are more vulnerable while getting nuclear weapons (Iran) countries may not act rational greater likelihood of misunderstanding stability of the state |
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Terrorism
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random and indiscriminate killing of innocent for a political or religious objective
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The War on Terror
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no a winnable war
nuclear terrorism is not very possible hard to get/make need delivery system hard to transport nations won't give up their greatest assest terrorists are unpredictable/unstable and you don't want them with all the power |
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Recent Trends
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Balancing interests & values
there are contradictions with our actions & values (Arab Spring) Obama more realist |
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US- Russia Relations
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renewed cold war?
-Putin -realists Bush-Putin was high tension -clash over missile system Russo-Chinese System willing to ensure stability with strong hand Issues Obama able to redo START treaty cuts 1/3 of nuclear weapons. Strong verification regime. Reduces Missiles and launches. Both commit to reduce excess weapons grade plutonium improved cooperation on Afghanistan, allowed flights through Russia Some improved cooperation on Iran, agreed to support UN security council 1929 sanctions missile shield removed Human Rights not improving. |
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Transatlantic tie
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England best ally but not a typical European country
share common values: Democracy, Human Rights, etc Differences on willingness of military action Major economic differences big government Germany argues for austerity pro palestine |
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EU experiment
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mind boggling to Realists to give up part of sovereignty
Liberal argues they benefit from it and contains any future aggressive powers. Gain influence and power together. Debt crisis has tested the EU but more or less successful realists argue countries are just going to cheat in the end |
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weak states
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central government is ineffective and exerts little practical control over its territory
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Failed states
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no functioning national government, condition of government collapse
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Humanitarian Involvement
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Realism
-realists states are only concerned with survival, therefore need to enhance power. -Humanitarian involvement is not a real interest Idealism -mission in the world to save lives -wilson's philosophy that institutions prevent war |
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Morality & FP
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rare phenomenon
most examples of USFP are realists not idealism Wilson is the #1 examples of human rights & institutions Carter opposed certain dictators Nuremberg Trials unprecedented international cooperation and creating a trial Recent (in the 90's) |
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Humanitarian Intervention
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The “new power of morality” in IR
since 90's unprecedented involvement |
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The “CNN effect”
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prompted normal people to become concerned and put pressure on government due to 24 hour news
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Humanitarian Trap
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hard to intervene and just leave
creates dependency |
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classical sovereignty
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classical principle of not interfering in other countries. Can do what you want inside your borders.
With beginning of Nuremberg Trial the norms changed |
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Shared Sovereignty
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states share the burden of failed states through multilateral agreements
Problems -hard to come to agreements from different views -sounds exactly like colonialism Differences -not motivated by resources -multilateral -there is a deadline Free rider problem -seems like US is carrying the burden and intiating intervension -price of being a superpower |
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The diplomatic complex (foggy bottom) (State Department)
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functions of the state department
-representing US position abroad -serving as contacts for representatives of other governments -advice president -gathering and sharing information about developments overseas (intelligence, espionage) -providing representation and services to US citizens abroad (loss of passport, voting) -regulating and managing foreign travel to the US -investigating solutions to transnational problems (nuclear proliferation, epidemics, arms/drug trafficking, international crime) huge bureaucratic complex -established 1781 (oldest department) -60, 000 employees -180+embassies |
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Secretary pf State
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Duties of Secretary of State
-oversees the entire diplomatic complex -ranking member of cabinet 4th in line for presidential succession advices president |
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National Security Council (NSC)
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1947
coordinates national security sources of neutral policy guidance- not under state or defense department serves as a forum for crisis management highly mailable (every president exercises discretion) personal relationships matter independent power center highly secretive institution |
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Department of Defense
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largest, most expensive in the government
largest employer in the US fragmented structure |
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Department of Homeland Security
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est 2001
prevent future attacks in the US bureaucratic frankenstein underfunded, undermanned, disorganized, slow moving |
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Intelligence Complex
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structure
-in 2004 congress created the director of national intelligence (DNI) -CIA, etc come below -overlap w/ department of defense as that also deals with intelligence |
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intelligence cycle
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phase 1 planning & directing
policy makers gather and decide what needs to be done phase 2 collection intelligence gathered: human intelligence, signal intelligence, geospatial intelligence (drones), open sources: facebook, nonclassified information phase 3 processing translation, codes, etc phase 4 analysis interpretation phase 5 dissemination send intelligence to proper authorities |
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Bretton Woods 1944
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world leaders came together and decided that developed nations have an obligation to make things better for developing countries
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world bank
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offers low interest loans, grants, and technical assistance to struggling economies
most powerful member is the US |
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IMF
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helps global system of floating exchange rate monitoring fiscal and monetary policies of member states.
Lend money at concessional rates to IMF member in financial distress provide technical assistance |
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WTO
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world trade organization
regime to control trade |
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washington consensus
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US pushed hard for a stringent conditions to be met before loans were granted
free market → little regulation → government hands off didnt want a situation where developing countries were constantly dependent on wealthier countries |
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Two-Level Games
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term coined by Robert Putnam in 1955
refers to a leaders negotiation with country/ countries on two levels international- foreign counterparts communicate domestic- dealing with domestic pressures as well Example NAFTA Clinton dealing w/ leaders of Mexico and Canada Domestically business leaders say yes labor unions, representatives say no environmentalists say no |
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Foreign Policy Crisis
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definition
a crisis is an unexpected situation that threatens high value goals of decisions makers and offers a short time for response high value goals energy, access of resources, security (national), sovereignty, protections of freedom and democracy prominent characteristics time emergency ambiguity or uncertainty element of surprise or uniqueness |
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crisis negotiations
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in any crisis negotiation, there are things that can go wrong
mismanagement of information breakdown of communication within teams consensus (possibly groupthink) breakdown of communication across teams loosing track of goals and objectives: negotiations are bring up side issues that side track the whole negotiation |
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Role of Stress and Time
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high stress= high performance only up to a point
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diplomatic time
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quicker than normal time decision makers have to respond much quicker to situations
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