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133 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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What is Public Opinion?
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- Aggregation of people's views about issues, situations, and public figures.
- normatively, we believe public should shape outcomes (the framers though that government should listen to an extent, but not fully) - V.O. Key: "those opinions held by private persons which Governments find it prudent to heed." - Elections (notion that if public officials don't listen to the public, they'll lose reelection) - Expressed vs. Latent Opinion - Different from values and ideology |
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What are the origins of Public Opinion?
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Common Fundamental values
- Equality of opportunity - Individual freedom - Democracy - Free Market economy _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -Agreement on values is not absolute -These values are not always put into practice |
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How do we know when the Common Fundamental values are shared?
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Look at political speeches (from both parties)
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Political Socialization
What are the six categories of political socialization we discussed in class? |
- Agents of Socialization
- Education - Attitudes - Ideology - Partisanship - Information |
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Political Socialization
What are the agents of socialization? |
- Family, children absorb political views of parents
- Social Groups, gives individuals important experiences and perspectives - Voluntary (labor unions, churches) - Involuntary (neighborhood, gender, race) - Groups have different objective political interest - Younger vs. Older voters _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Good deal of evidence that the party people vote for when young is the party they stay with throughout their lives |
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Political Socialization
Education |
Education
(differences in level of attainment give different outlooks. Higher sense of political efficacy, sense you can shape the world. Educational differences also effect participation) - Prevailing Political Conditions (Italians going north become Socialist, Italians in US become associated with Labor) - White southerners following Civil War - New Deal Era |
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Political Socialization
Attitudes |
- Organized and consistent manor of thinking, feeling reacting with regard to people, groups, and social issues
- Most people's political attitudes are loosely structured and inconsistent - People vary in terms of the strength of their attitude |
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Political Socialization
Ideology |
- Organized set of political attitudes
- In theory ideologies promote consistency among political attitudes - In practice, ideologies combine attitudes linked more by coalitional politics than by principle (studies show there are not a lot of "true" ideologues in American politics) - Policy positions often associated with ideological labels do not have a strong logical connection - The meaning of these labels change over time - Liberal/Conservative labels do not guide thinking of may Americans. - Many do no even understand the distinction! - Important predictor of political behavior, especially among knowledgeable voters (most americans self-identify as middle moderate, top/middle of Conservative/Liberal bell curve) |
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What policies do we usually associate with liberals?
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- Pro-choice
- Progressive taxation - Environmental protection - Social welfare progress - Less likely to support military intrusion |
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What policies do we usually associate with conservatives?
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- Pro-life
- Lower taxes - "Traditional" values - More likely to support military intervention - Oppose regulation of the economy |
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Political Socialization
Partisanship |
- Disposition towards political parties
- Two interpretations of partisanship 1.) Psychological Phenomenon (early in childhood, stability, once part of ones identification handy changes. Acts as a perceptual screen, take info in that supports their views and ignore those that don't) 2.) Short Cut / Practical (People can use the candidates label to understand them without having to really investigate them) - Partisan identification acts as perceptual screen - Bush v. Gore - Clinton's impeachment - WMD in Iraq - Democrats have an advantage over Republicans in terms of party ID (Independents still usually vote for one party than the other) - Partisanship is relevant across all levels of knowledge -Partisanship and ideology are strongly correlated, but they are NOT the same thing - The correlation between the two has grown over time |
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Political Socialization
Information |
- Knowledge of politics very low among voters
- Why is knowledge so low? - Difficult to understand - Not interesting - Lack of efficacy - Difficult to acquire information - Knowledge of politics is not distributed evenly among the population (People have low recall of certain political actors but have a generally higher knowledge of how the process works) - Informed opinion matters! - Better informed people tend to be strong partisans |
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Can public opinion be manipulated by media, politicians and political campaigns?
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- Yes and no
- Difficult because many of the factors that contribute to opinion formation cannot be manipulated - But can be manipulated through FRAMING(key term) - Provide a context that affects the criteria citizens use in forming an opinion - Ex: Clinton's impeachment (Republicans saw it as an obstruction of justice versus the Democrats saw it as a private sexual matter. Perjury/legal matter vs. private marital matter) - Same sex marriage |
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Framing pg 452
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Opinion Polling
How do we measure public opinion? |
(Elites called for Clinton resignation - people were indifferent, approval rating went up)
- Usually through opinion polls (cheaper than it used to be, goes back to the 1930s) - Before opinion polls? - Talking to people - Read the press - Political markets |
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Opinion Polling
What are the potential problems with polls? |
- Sampling Error (having a smaller/bad sample size)
- Results from a small sample - Typical size is 450 - 1,500 respondents - Tradeoff between cost and degree of precision - Selection bias - Occurs when a sample systematically includes or excludes people with certain attitudes - Surveys must include a representative sample - Random Sample: a sample in which every member of population has an equal chance of being selected. - Limitations? - No single directory with everyone in it - Many people will not answer pollster questions - Not everyone can be reached by phone - Some people have more than one phone number (about 1/10 answer pollster questions) |
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Elections as a collective action problem
How does society overcome free rider problems inherent in voting? |
Low-information rationality
- A lack of detailed knowledge doesn't mean voters cannot vote their interests - Voters rely on cues (ie information shortcuts) - People use short cuts all the time - Prices - Employers hire employees with college degrees - Makes selecting an agent cheaper |
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Elections as a collective action problem
What types of shortcuts do voters use? |
- Party Labels
- Brand name - Voters use party label even when they do not think much of parties or institutions (People can use the party labels almost without any knowledge of candidate. Higher polarization today in part because of meaningful differences in party labels) - Endorsements - Trusted friends or family - TV/Radio commentators - Newspaper editorials - Trusted public figures (people listen to people that take biases they understand) - Gender - Race - Career - Incumbency |
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What does research show about voters with access to information shortcuts?
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- They vote as if they were fully informed.
- Study of direct democracy elections in California (Lupia 1994) (Nader group, car insurance, rate determined by driving record not neighborhood) - The cues that voters receive can altar vote choices (People that paid a lot of attention voted the same as those with information shortcuts. People with information shortcuts voted as if they had full information. People without information voted randomly) |
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What do political campaigns do?
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-Mobilize
-Provide Free information -Frame issue |
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Political Campaigns
Mobilize |
Try to turn out party members
- Phone calls -Tell voters where their polling place is - Driving people to vote - Appeals concerning the need to vote Sometimes try to keep the other party's voters away - Negative ads - Decreases turn out (especially among independents) |
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Political Campaigns
Provide free information |
- Candidates name
- Issue positions - Criticize opponents - Of course, campaigns sometimes err and send "bad" cues |
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Political Campaigns
Frame Issues |
(Maybe not try to change minds, but try to change mindset)
- Target uninformed, nearly indifferent voters - End result, campaigns lower cost of voting, increase perceived benefits and increase sense of duty - Media plays a similar role |
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Voter Turnout
Political participation (in terms of voting) is low in the US relative to other democracies. |
50%-60% in Presidential election years
30%-40% in Midterm election Other democracies over 75% Americans are more likely to engage in other types of participation. Great regional variations within the US |
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Why is voter turn out so low?
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In party, systematic bias in the way turnout is computed. (# voted for POTUS ÷ # people over 18 able to vote, lead to some bias)
- Registration laws in US increase cost of voting - Registration not the whole story - National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (Motor Voter) - Some states still have more restrictive registration then others |
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What explains the decline in turnout in the US despite increasing education levels?
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Political science has identified a number of individual-level factors that affect turnout.
- Income - Age - Race - Social Involvement - Psychological factors - Affect towards parties and candidates Education is strongest predictor of turnout. Education level has risen, but voter turnout has declined |
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Voter turnout and declining mobilization
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- Party organizations were particularly strong during the 19th century. (Party machines)
- Parties within the electorate were weakened by a series of progressive reforms (Civil Services Reform, split ticket) - Primary elections - Australian Ballot (Secret Ballot) |
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Voter Turnout
There has been declining social connectedness or civic participation |
-Civic participation - being active and involved in one's community
- Declining since the 1960's -Membership in face-to-face organizations shrinking - Membership in terting(??) organizations on the rise - Church membership on decline |
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Why has civic participation fallen?
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- Pressures of money
- Suburbanization - Television - Generational change |
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Does voter turnout matter?
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- We might think "yes" because turnout varies among socio-economic groups
- Research finding are mixed If turnout doesn't usually affect outcomes, why should we worry about it? - Legitimacy |
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What do we mean by Midterm elections?
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What patterns do we observe?
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- During Presidential elections, the President's party in Congress usually gains seats in Congress
- During midterm elections, the Presidents party looses seats Why? - "Surge and Decline" - Ideological balancing |
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Theory of Surge & Decline
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High-stimulus elections (surge)
- lots of attention , energy, and turnout (Presidential elections) - Attract both the core and peripheral voter Low-stimulus elections (decline) - Less energy and turnout (midterms) - Attract the core voter |
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Who are the core voters?
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- More partisan
- Not as influenced by short term forces - Turnout for midterm elections |
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Who are the peripheral voters?
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- Less partisan
- Influenced more by short term forces - Less likely to vote in midterm elections |
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Midterm Elections
What is Ideological Balancing? |
When voters support the out party during midterm elections in order to restore ideological balance to government.
- Knowing the party of the President, voters vote for the opposition to move policy back to the center - Some evidence that voters actually engage in balancing in the Presidential elections |
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Midterm Elections
What factors affect the size of the seat gain? |
- Presidential approval
- State of the economy - Exposure of President's party - Emergence of quality challengers - This is the result of strategic decision making - Challengers make entry decisions (in part) by considering whether it promises to be a good or a bad year their party - Campaign contributors make a similar evaluation with respect to which candidate to finance (A year or more in advance) |
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Midterm Elections
What about those elections when the President's party actually gains seats? |
1998
- Very good economy - High Presidential approval (66%) - Not that many vulnerable Democrats or quality challengers - (American people largely angered at Republicans for pursing impeachment) 2002 - President approval rating high (following 9/11) - Fairly strong economy |
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Midterm Elections
Why did Democrats do so poorly in 2010? |
- Bad economy
- Lots of exposure (vulnerable) - Relatively low approval of Pres. Obama - Republicans highly motivated - Unpopularity of healthcare reform Could have been worse...Republicans had some weak Candidates. - Democrats did poorly at all levels of government |
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At the founding, parties were widely considered to be a threat to good government
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- Federalist #10
- Washington's Farewell address (2/3 of address talking about domestic policy and why political parties are bad) (Unite for common good and avoid geographic in nature groups) - Fear of parties based on framers knowledge of history - Fear also based in contemporary understanding of "illegitimacy" of opposition |
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We get political parties anyway, why?
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- 1st Amendment
- Too useful not to have been invented (help solve collective action problems in congress, across Senate and House, Congress and President) (Crucial role in recruiting politicians/agents) Ironically, parties have become essential to democracy |
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Conceptualizing Political Parties
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Teams of elites organized for the purpose of seizing and keeping control of the government without ending democratic forms of government.
- Distinct from interest groups Parties need to tolerate "loyal opposition" rather than curb/eliminate it. Parties in US have not always resisted this temptation - Sedition Act - But, generally allow smooth transition of power among political parties |
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Functions of Political Parties
Parties in Governmnet |
- Solve collective action problems associated with collective decision-making institutions
- Help overcome separation of powers system |
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Functions of Political Parties
Parties in the electorate |
- Knit citizens together in broad coalitions
- Mobilize voters - Allow voters to enforce collective responsibility |
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Functions of Political Parties
Parties as organizations |
- Train, select, and screen potential agents
- Note: many different party organizations (often compete with each other) |
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What do parties do to win elections?
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1.) Recruit Candidates
2.) Nominate Candidates 3.) Provide Resources 4.) Mobilize supporters |
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How do parties recruit candidates?
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- Identify strong competitors and entice them into the race
- Look for candidates with prior experience and ability to raise money |
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What do parties do to nominate candidates?
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- Select a single candidate to run for an elective office
- Parties face an incentive to settle on a single candidate -If votes of (likely) party supporters are split among one or more candidates, may lose election |
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What are the two different techniques for nominating candidates?
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State governments have power to select method.
Constitution only sets age and citizenship requirements for candidates - Conventions - Primary elections |
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Nominating Candidates
Conventions |
- Party nominee selected by a formal caucus instead of directly by voters
- National party conventions have selected Presidential nominees since 1832 - Attended by delegates from each state - Delegates selected - Nominates Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates - Used to take days of negotiation among party leaders - Now most work is done directly by voters - Established Party Rules - Rules can determine relative influence of competing groups within party - Ex: 1972 Democratic convention altered ruled to favor liberals - Draft Platform - Lays out party's positions in many key policy areas - Should be understood as a contract among various party factions - Often dismissed as documents filled with platitudes |
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Nominating Candidates
Primary Elections |
- Party members select the party's nominees directly rather than selecting convention delegates
- Replaced conventions as dominant method of nomination - Lower voter participation - Two Major types 1.) Closed Primary - Participation limited to individuals who have previously declared their partisan affiliation 2.) Open Primary - Participation more open, leads to more moderate nominees |
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What are the two major types of primary elections?
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1.) Closed Primary
- Participation limited to individuals who have previously declared their partisan affiliation 2.) Open Primary - Participation more open, leads to more moderate nominees |
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What resources do parties provide?
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- Staff
- Money - Organization - Training |
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How do parties mobilize supports
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- Voter registration drives
- Get voters to polling place - Turnout shaped by efforts of Party - Democratic increase in voter participation pot 1828 |
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What do contemporary party organization look like?
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National Committee
- Each party technically headed by its national committee Congressional Campaign Committees - Each party forms House & Senate campaign committees to raise funds - May be rivals of National Committee State and Local Party Organizations - Each of the major parties has a central committee in each state - Ideology of state-level parties varies cross-sectionally |
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Machine Politics
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-American political parties were strongest during the ear of "machine" politics (1875-1920)
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What was machine politics?
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- System of political organization built on simple principles of exchange (government jobs/contracacts)
- Non-ideological |
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How were political machines organized?
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Top Level
- "Boss" or committee (Boss Tweed of NY) - Power based on ability to dominate both elections and city government - Controlled patronage jobs - Demanded financial contributions from business - Accepted payment from criminal enterprises Second Tier: Ward and Precinct Captains - Ward Committees man and Precinct captains - Received government jobs in exchange for their service - Serve needs of neighbors in order to secure their loyalty at ballot box Third Tier: Party Loyalist - Individuals with city jobs were expected to work for the party during elections |
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What brought the downfall of political machines?
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Progressive reforms: removed monitoring devices and rewards
- Australian ballot - Tighter registration laws (couldn't get people right off the boat anymore) - Civil service Reform - Direct primary elections - Local institutional reforms - City Managers - Non-partisan elections - At-large elections |
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What were the consequences of progressive reforms?
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- Weakened mobilizing agents that brought many low-income/low-status people into politics
- Moved focus of electoral politics away from parties and towards candidates - Easier for "outsiders" to win office - More divided government - May cause gridlock - Legislation tends to be more moderate |
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Probability of Voting formula
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V = P(b) - C + D
Voting Probability of effecting the benefit (effecting election) Cost = Cost of voting (fees, taxes, effort/time to vote) Duty = Moral obligation you feel to vote, societal pressures, peer pressure |
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Possible exam question
Explain the increase of the voting franchise |
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Two Party System
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- US has traditionally been a two party system
- 3rd parties have existed - American (Know-Nothing) party (Largest anti-immigrant party in the late 19th century, especially towards Catholics) - Populist (People's) Party (19th Century Party that was centered in the rural areas of the West and MidWest) - Progressive Party (Urban Middle class in late 19th and early 20th century. Sough political, fiscal and economic reform) - Reform Party (Ross Perot!) these parties get sucked into existing two parties |
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Third Parties
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- Rarely Permanent
- Exception is the Republican party which replaced the Whigs - Support for most 3rd parties tends to be regional - These parties often enjoy influence beyond their electoral size - Large parts of their programs often adopted by one of the major parties - Ex: Democrats become more liberal when they adopted most of the Populist platform and policies similar to those of the Socialist party |
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Why are voters often reluctant to support 3rd party candidates?
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Strategic voting
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How does the two party system re-enforce itself?
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- Controlling ballot access (extremely hard to get on, especially in Texas)
- Control of who gets into Presidential Debates (To get on TV 3rd parties have to polling at at least 15%, last to do was Ross Perot) - Fund Raising abilities |
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What is Duverger's Law?
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- Explains that elections determined by a simple plurality electoral system, naturally lead to a two party system. (Strategic voting)
- Small parties have an incentive to join with Democrats or Republicans - Voters strategically support one of these two parties |
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Two Party System
Why only two parties? |
- "Direct" election of the President
- Duverger's Law - Proportional representation systems encourage the creation of multiple parties - First-past-the-post electoral systems tend to exaggerate the size of the majorities (If Republicans won 50.1%, and Democrats 49.99% Republicans would have all the seats. Democrats won over 1 million more votes, but are the minority party in the House) |
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What are the ADVANTAGES of the two party system?
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- Parties tend to be broad coalitions fighting for center.
- Median Voter Theory - Parties want to capture the middle - Leads to moderation - Policy stability - Keep politics from unraveling along racial, ethnic, or class lines. |
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What are the DISADVANTAGES of the two party system?
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- Extreme groups and small minorities may lack a voice in government
- Leads to alienation - No real choice (i.e. Parties too similar) |
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What is the Median Voter Theory?
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- Median Voter Theory
- Parties want to capture the middle - Leads to moderation - Policy stability |
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Historically America has had several different party systems, each characterized by different Coalitional arrangements.
What was the 1st? |
First party system 1792-1814, division between Federalists and Democratic-Republican party
Issues were - What role should federal / state government play? - Ally with British or French? |
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Historically America has had several different party systems, each characterized by different Coalitional arrangements.
What was the 2nd? |
1857-1852
- Federalist party ceased to exist stopped running candidates in 1820s 1853-1857 - Democratic – Republican party splits - Jackson faction becomes Democratic party - Henry Clay faction becomes Whig party - Economic modernizers, commercial farmers, financial and economic sector elites, stimulate factory creating - Unable to take a stand on Slavery - Republican party takes a strong Anti-slavery stance - Whig party falls apart and is replaced by Republicans |
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Historically America has had several different party systems, each characterized by different Coalitional arrangements.
What was the 3rd? |
Republicans dominant
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Historically America has had several different party systems, each characterized by different Coalitional arrangements.
What was the 4th? |
Democrats v republicans after revolution
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Historically America has had several different party systems, each characterized by different Coalitional arrangements.
What was the 5th? |
New Deal Coalitional and its collapse
- Prior to the New Deal, Republican party dominated national politics - Economic issues were most salient; formed the dominant political cleavage (Management v. Labor) - Made Democratic party clear majority - Held until 1960s - New Deal coalition and Democratic party began to break up |
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Which interests comprised the New Deal coalition?
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- White Southerners
- Union members and poor farmers - Northern Blacks - Progressive reformers and urban machines - Catholics |
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Who were the opponents of the New Deal coalition?
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- White Protestants
- Small business owners and professionals - Ideological conservatives - Farmers in North east and Midwest |
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What issues broke up the New Deal Coalition?
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- Civil Rights
- Affirmative Action - War in Vietnam - Changes from New Deal to Great Society programs - Rise of life-style or moral issues - Environmental issues |
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What do the parties currently look like?
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- Still strong traces of New Deal coalitions
- White Southerners overwhelmingly Republican - Men have become more Republican - Youth heavily Democratic - Republican party maintained control for 12 consecutive years (1995-2006) Control switched in 2007; Republicans took control of the House in 2011 |
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What is the current Republican party strategy?
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- Appeal to upper class on economic grounds
- Appeal to working and middle class via social issues - Emphasize national security |
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Emergence of the Tea Party faction in the Republican Party
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- Emerged in the early years of the Obama administration, in response to stimulus and healthcare reforms
- More conservative, especially on fiscal issues - Anti-establishment (Challenges established party leaders) - Arguably, the Tea Party faction has pushed the Republican party farther to the right (Why? Legislatively, Republican House majority can't pass legislations without Tea Party support, they've threatened and have challenged incumbent Republicans in primaries) |
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Are Parties in decline?
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45 years ago, political scientist established importance of partisan loyalist among voters
- "Michigan Model" - Party ID is of CENTRAL importance In 1970s, political observers see decline of American political parties - Increasing number of Independents - Partisans abandoned their party's nominees in 1964 and 1972 - Most prevalent among the young - Rise of split-ticket voting |
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Are Parties in decline?
Have the partisan attachments of voters continued to decline since the 1970s? |
- Answer appears to be "No"
- The proportion of "strong" partisan identifiers has INCREASED since 1976 - Proportion of "pure" independents has declined - Number of Partisan identifiers still a bit lower than 1950s. - Numbers unchanged if we consider only the population that votes |
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Are voters becoming better or less sorted?
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Better.
- The alignment between partisanship and ideology is stronger - Liberals are increasingly likely to identify as Democrats - The alignment between partisanship and issue positions is stronger - Democrats and Republicans are more likely to take same issues positions as their party leaders (elites) |
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Why has voter sorting increased?
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- Southern Realignment is part of the story
- But sorting is not regional - Consensus is emerging that sorting is also driven by Party Elites - Party elites used to be somewhat heterogeneous(diverse in character) - Elites now send clearer cues to voters - Voters use these to align partisan, ideological, and policy preferences - Heterodox candidates (do not take the same policy positions as elites) have a hard time winning primaries - Heterodox members of Congress accumulate little power and influence (does not become part of party elites) – poor committee assignments because not seen as reliable, etc. |
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Despite their unpopularity, political parties are essential to democracy.
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Help solve numerous collective actions problems.
American party system is dynamic, but difficult to change |
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Define Interest Groups
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An organized group of people that make policy-related appeals to government.
- Includes both membership and non-membership organizations - Includes state, local and foreign governments - Distinct from political parties - Americans have a long standing reputation for forming groups (alexis de tocqueville) |
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What is the difference between membership and non-membership organizations?
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Membership: Sierra Club, Christian Coalition, NRA
Non-membership: business organizations |
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How are interest groups and political parties different?
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- Political parties want to control political power.
- However, some interest groups have become more aligned with one party overtime |
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Before Civil War, there were few national organizations, that changed with the development of rail roads and people became more connected and business grew. The first groups were economic ones, agriculture based.
NAACP National Auto 1960s and on.... huge boom in group formation, Black Rights, Gary Rights... |
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Why do Interest Groups form?
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- To make demands on government, to play larger or smaller role.
- Despite unpopularity, their emergence was inevitable. - Protected by the 1st Amendment of Constitution - Useful for functions democracy (help solve CA prob) - Convey information to elected officials (tech or pol) - Interest group activity represents another instance of delegation |
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How do interest groups help solve collective action problems?
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- They educate membership
- Monitor agents on behalf of voters (create scorecards on officials) (monitoring is very costly, most individuals can't pay. Important function of interest groups) - Mobilize voters (encourage participation) |
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What kind of information do interest groups convey to elected officials?
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- Technical
Can provide expertise that politician may not know about an industry or about an issue that is new to them - Political Interpretation of results, tilt Republican / Democrat? Voted on policy planks or stump promises? - Thus, they are an integral part of representation |
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How do principals control these agents (interest groups)
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- The Market Mechanism (These groups ultimately need members to be influential.)
(early 90's NRA wound up losing 5-10% of membership) |
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Problems with Interest Group Representation
The PLURALIST defense of Interest groups |
- "The Governmental Process" (Truman 1951)
- Interest groups form spontaneously (Builds on Federalsit #10 - talks about how bad interest groups are, but also notes that they are so diverse and fighting. that they have no way of taking over government) - Interest groups form spontaneously (Interest groups are a natural product of capitalist growth, whenever an interest can be enhanced or threatened by political action, an interest group will form and pressure government) - Political Process balances competing interests (Because interest groups will form on one side, and other interests groups will form on other side as well) - Outcome is compromise and moderation |
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Problems with Interest Group Representation
Not all interests are equally or fully represented |
- Pluralist theory suggests that groups roughly in proportion to people's interests
- Society's "haves" better represented than "have-nots" - "The flaw in pluralist heaven is that the heavenly chorus sings with a strong upper-class accent" (Schetschneider) - Groups with better representation - Higher educated - Management / Executive experience - Looking are groups that exist and lobby on a national level, it is evident that not all interests are equally and fully represented |
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Problems with Interest Group Representation
Why are some interests under represented? |
- Organizational resources distributed unevenly
- Need certain resources to form interest groups - Money - Information - Access - Skill - These resources are not equally distributed within society - Incentives and barriers to organizing vary across different types of groups - "The Logic of Collective Action" (Olson 1965) - Pluralist assumption that common interests automatically translate into organization flawed - Individuals have incentive to free ride - Difficulty of organizing greatest for large groups - Issues groups wants to address - The more abstract the issue is that you are organizing on, the more distant the issue is, the harder it is to mobile people |
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How do Interest groups overcome their problems?
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- Coercion
- Selective Benefits - Information Benefits (Professors Political Journal) - Material Benefits (anything measured monetarily, AARP discounts) - Solidary Benefits (Social benefits/working with friends) - Purposive Benefits (believe in something passionately, like saving the whales) |
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Who plays a key role in organizing and maintaining interest groups?
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- Political entrepreneurs (leaders)
- Some individuals and institutions are willing to go it alone to form the groups and do not worry so much about free-rider problems - Often their individual contribution is so large that it is key to the group achieving their goals - Ross Perot, founded and formed own party - Koch Brothers! |
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Interest Group Formation
What kind of growth has the US seen in the number and size of Interest groups? |
- Explosive growth
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Interest Group Formation
What are the sources of interest group growth? |
- Expansion of Federal government in social and economic policy (chanced the political environment)
- Social movements (gay rights, black rights, women's rights, etc.) -Encouraged by government (Kennedy admin. encouraged formation of groups that tracked women's rights) - Increases in domestic spending, especially categorical grants - Domestic social legislation of 1960s and 1970s - Government provides leadership - Technical change (tax code reform) some groups don't pay, some donations tax deductible |
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What do Interest groups do?
What are the two techniques of interest groups? |
Inside
Outside |
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What do Interest groups do?
What are Insider techniques of interests groups? |
- Lobby
- Develop close ties (networks) with members of the government - Provide information about policy - Campaign Contributions (use electoral politics) - Direct vs. in-kind-contributions Direct= Write checks in-kind-donations = knocking on doors for candidates/mailing pamphlets - Often times done through political action committees - What happened to interests that don't engage in these activities? - They get "microsofted" |
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What do Interest groups do?
What are Outsider strategies of interests groups? |
- Grassroots lobbying in an attempt to mobilize ordinary citizens
- Influence lawmakers indirectly - Somewhat akin to "going public" - Cultivate favorable public opinion - LGBT efforts - Direct action or protests - Perhaps indirectly hoping to change public opinion - Make an issue more salient and relevant - Create pressure on politicians to address an issue - Tries to publicize an issue - Litigation - Not working through political branch of government - Campaign activism - Mobilizing citizens - Educating public |
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What do Interest groups do?
What influences interest groups selected strategy? |
- Group characteristics (afford to write big checks for political contributions, some can lobby effectively, reach the right people)
- Situational characteristics (who is in control of power? Sympathetic official or not) |
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Does money influence behavior?
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- Most Americans believe politician's policy decisions are influenced by campaign contributions
1982 HoR rejected (286-133) ruling by FTC that required car dealers to list known defect on sticker. (Automakers accused of buying a No vote. those that agreed with auto dealers got 6x as much in contributions) - The problem with argument: high correlation between ideology and contributions |
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How influential are interest groups?
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- Probably not as powerful as they used to be
- The proliferation and fragmentation of interest groups brought an end to "iron-triangles" What is an "iron-triangle?" Alliances between congressional committees, executive agencies, and interest groups set policy in key areas There is not just one powerful interest group now, there are more interest groups, though some groups may be more represented than others People (politicians) have well articulated and well established stances on high salience issues Low salience issues, most people don't care about |
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Opinion Polling
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- More polls than ever before
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What are some problems with opinion polling?
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-Sampling error (too small sample)
- Selection bias (if selection systematically includes or excludes people or particular opinion) - Measurement error |
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What is measurement error in opinion polling?
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- Error that arises from attempting to measure something subjective
- Have to carefully craft questions in an unbiased manner - Questions can be crafted to favor an outcome the pollster wants - Questions can be confusing (Holocaust poll examples) |
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What is an example of leading/framing problems in opinion polling?
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We are faced with many problems in this country, non of which can be solved easily or inexpensively I’m going to name a few problems and for each one I’d like you to tell me whether you think we are spending too much money, too little money, or about the right amount
• When following question is about “welfare” • too little 13%, about right 25%, too much 62% • When followed about "assistance to the poor" • too little 59%, about right 25%, too much 16% • Welfare framing has negative connotations |
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What is an example of oversimplified questions?
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LA Times Poll in 1980s
Do you think that a pregnant woman should or should not be able to get a legal abortion no matter what the reason? 57% no CBS news / New York Times If a woman wants to have an abortion, and her doctor agrees to it, should she be allowed to have an abortion or not? 58% yes Which poll is right? Probably neither Each poll contains words or phrases that predispose people to answer question in one way or another |
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Can the order of questions effect opinion polling?
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yes
- If use term gay vs homosexual, gay gets slightly better responses - If asking religion first, then slightly lower response – priming people - Asking for support for civil unions if follows marriage than if asked alone is more favourable |
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What variant is the worst in opinion polling?
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Push Poling
- Not a random sample - Not aimed to get public opinion - Mildest forms are supposed to remind voters of a particular issue - Used a lot in low-turnout elections - But truth is often fabricated - Intended to change and not measure opinions - "Would you be more or less likely to vote for Candidate X if you knew (fill in the blank)?” - A way of getting negative information out about a candidate, gives a veneer of truth vs. attack ad on TV - e.g. "If you knew Lamar Alexander had raised taxes six times in Tennessee, would you be more or less likely to vote for him?” - e.g. “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?” - e.g. "Do you support the Barack Obama health plan that requires all taxpayers to fund abortions?” |
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What does Nate Silver do in his polls?
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He polls the polls, or averages other polls results, and seems to be more accurate.
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Polls are not infallible
What are some poll problems? |
- Sometimes pollsters "guess" incorrectly about who will turnout.
- Making a prediction about who will win is more difficult than getting public opinion - Sometimes respondents are dishonest - People may feel social pressure to lie on a question like "do you cheat on your taxes?" - Poorly designed - Literary Digest, Presidential poll in 1936, sent 10 million cards, predict Landon win 58%...but FDR won 60%, bad sample, drew names from economically well off |
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What are some contemporary examples of bad polls?
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- Internet polling where people opt in to answer
- Mail counts / number of phone calls in Congressional and White House office receive - Television call-in polls - Straw polls |
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Is public opinion meaningful?
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- Many Americans are politically ignorant and hold inconsistent views
- but... Aggregate public opinion is stable and coherent - Does not radically fluctuate - When it does change, it is often in predicable and sensible ways - Distribution of aggregate opinion tends to be highly stable - When changes occurs, it reflects historical trends or changed conditions - When aggregated, measurement errors tend to cancel one another out - Public opinion is given rationality and coherence by opinion leaders - This does not mean people are easily manipulated by elites - People can and do rely on cognitive shortcuts - Shortcuts can be listening to people you trust - Framing |
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What are cognitive shortcuts in the context of public opinion?
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- People can and do rely on cognitive shortcuts
- Shortcuts can be listening to people you trust - Framing |
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Does public opinion influence government policy, if so how much?
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Yes!
- Political leaders pay attention, spend lots of money and time probing it, and trying to manipulate it - In a democracy leaders benefit from heeding public opinion - Research demonstrates that opinion matters - Changes in public mood are followed by changes in public policy - Public opinion shapes votes cast by members of Congress |
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What are some of the limitations of the influence public opinion has on government policy?
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- There remains areas where policy and public opinion diverge
- Clinton Impeachment - Some want higher level of gun control than what we have now - Framers designed American political institutions to insulate government from popular pressure - Minority filibuster in Senate - Not everyone's opinion matters equally |
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One of the limitations of public opinion is not everyone's opinion matters equally, whose matter more?
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Issue publics
- Gun owners in gun control - Can become "single issue" voters Co-partisans - Sate median voter vs. party median voters vs. issue publics - Politicians have to win their party primary first (so need to listen to their party median voter) Wealthy - Have a lot of money.... - Politicians have to finance their own campaigns - Money "buys" access to more speech - Wealthy people tend to have a greater sense of political efficacy of their political viewpoints - Disagreement between wealthy and poor in the US actually is not common, but when there is disagreement, the wealthy tend to win |
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Logic of Elections
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It is the mechanism that connects public opinion to politicians and pressures politicians to follow public opinion
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What purpose do elections serve?
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Mechanism for keeping agents (elected representatives) responsible to principals (voters)
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How do elections help minimize agency loss?
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Gives ordinary citizens a say in who represents them.
Best way to reduce agency loss is select a good agent that represents your views. Prospect of future elections creates an incentive to be responsive. Provides an incentive to prospective office holders to monitor incumbents |
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What happens when there are term limits?
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Presidents tend to do poorly in their second term.
Possibly because President has no incentive to cater to public? |
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Elections as a collective action problem
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Voting produces collective goods
- Victory for party - Signal voter preferences to elected officials - Removal of unfaithful agents - Maintenance of democracy Classic free rider problem - If a voter is instrumentally rational, it doesn't make sense for him/her to vote - Costly to vote - Gathering information is time consuming - Registering and voting is also costly (time and effort) - The probability of any one vote being decisive is virtually zero - Voters have incentive to rely on others - Ignorance is "rational" |
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What is a rational voting model?
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The classic voting model
Conceptual model / equation, not literally used with numbers... V = P(B) - C + D V = if someone votes or not P = Probability that an individual's vote will affect outcome. (When elections are close) B = Benefit a voter gets if their candidate wins (does not have to be strictly finances, could be tax cut, health insurance subsidy etc) C = Cost of voting D = Duty, or psychological gratification one gets from voting Rational to vote only if P(B) + D > C |
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What will increase P in V = P(B) - C + D
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P = Probability that an individual's vote will affect outcome.
Competitive elections - Even in the south during one party system had low turnout because it was not competitive - Local elections (few potential voters) |
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What wil increase B in V = P(B) - C + D
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B = Benefit a voter gets if their candidate wins
Candidates that have very different policy positions |
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What will increase C in V = P(B) - C + D
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C = Cost of voting
- Registration laws - Bad weather - Lack of readily available information - Few polling places - Intimidation |
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What will increase D in V = P(B) - C + D
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D = Duty
- Public Service announcements - Peer Pressure - Campaigns to "get out the vote" |
