Urban Planning Exam 2 Chp 5

Front 1

How are population forecasts used?

Back 1

Population forecasts are used to estimate the demand for residential land, public and institutional land uses, and sometime retail land.

Front 2

How are employment forecasts used?

Back 2

To estimate the demand for land for the various economic sectors, including commerical.

Front 3

What do population and economy largely determines?

Back 3

The need for land, infrastructure, community facilities, and urban services.

Front 4

What are three dimensions of population and economy that are relevant for land use planning?

Back 4

1. Size

2. Composition

3. Spatial distribution

Front 5

Size

Back 5

>Size of the population and economy determines the future dimensions of urbanization

>It estimates space needs for future housing, retail & office space, community facilities space...

Front 6

Composition

Back 6

>Compositon of the population and economy is the size of specific groups; divided by age, gender, household, ethnic/cultural groups, socioeconomic levels

>Age is the most important dimension for planners bc of the implication of services; schools for children and health service for elderly

Front 7

Spatial distribution

Back 7

>Population distribution is necessary to asses the distribution of community facilities; access to jobs, shopping, and other opportunities; exposure to current problems & for differientiating impacts among segments of the population.

Front 8

Socioeconomic impact

Back 8

>Planners trace the spin-off implications of such economic event such the arrival & closing of an emplyer.

>These events have implications for employment, population, and future land use requirements.

Front 9

Normative Determination of the Future Population and Economy

Back 9

make a normative determination of what population or economic activity level should occur in the future or what population composition or economic structure or rate of growth is best for the community's future.

Front 10

Define Estimates

Back 10

refer to calculations of past or present population or economic levels, composition, or conditions.

Front 11

Define Projection

Back 11

the exact measurements of a future condition that will occur if the assumptions embodied in the projection approach prove true.

Front 12

Define Forecasts

Back 12

includes judgements about the likelihood of the assumption behind the projection. Its a range rather than a point estimate

Front 13

Should planners use forecasts or projections?

Back 13

Forecasting and planning rather than projections

Front 14

State the four camps

Back 14

>growth is determined

>growth is bad

>growth is good

>it all depends

Front 15

Growth is determined

Back 15

Growth is determined by forces outside the realm of land use planning, thus the land use plan should forecast the future population & economy & the accomodate them in the land use plan.

Front 16

Growth is good

Back 16

Growth is good because it represent opportunity, increased revenues, and community well being

Front 17

Growth is bad

Back 17

Growth is bad because it brings problems and threatens community

Front 18

It all depends

Back 18

The future population and economic size and structure should depend on a community's land & infrastructure supply, fiscal capacity to expand services, vision statement, vulnerability of environment.

Front 19

What are the difficulties for land use planning?

Back 19

>land use planning requires long range forecasts

>compounding the requirement for long-range forecasts, local land use planning requireness small area analysis

Front 20

What are the techniques used for estimation, projection, and design approaches?

Back 20

>Judgmental techniques

>Trend extrapolation

>Ratio-share

>Symptomatic/statistical association

>Simulation of demographic or economic components of change

>Supply side methods

Front 21

Judgmental Approach

Back 21

This approach producing forecasts by polling a panel of experts to reach a consensus judgement about the future.

Front 22

Trend Extrapolation

Back 22

This approach establishes trends and extends them into the future. It is done by mathematical formulas that describe the shape of the growth or decline curves.

Front 23

List the four mathematical forms used to describe historical population or economic growth and extrapolate them into the future?

Back 23

>the linear model

>the geometric model

>the modified exponential model

>the polynomial model

Front 24

Ratio/Share

Back 24

establish a ratio of a study area characteristic. such as fertility rate, or so called parent region.

ex. Fertility rate of Horry County of SC

Front 25

Symptomatic Association

Back 25

>method used for estimating current population to population change

>births, deaths, school enrollment

Front 26

Simulation of demographic or economic components of change

Back 26

Cohort-component method - the population is divided into a male and female component and further into race....trace cohort through life changes

Front 27

What are the Supply-side Forecasting Approaches that base the projection of future population and employment levels on estimates of what can be, or what should be, accomodated by the future supply of developable land?

Back 27

>holding capacity approach

>land use/housing modeling approach

>land supply design approach

Front 28

Holding Capacity Approach

Back 28

the holding capacity of a study area will depend on the amount of land available for development, environmental constraints, household size.

the future population would be some proportion of that holding capacity but never exceed it.

Front 29

Land Use/Housing Modeling

Back 29

allocates a parent area's population projection to geographic subarea's such as counties and municipalities.

Front 30

Forecasting by Design

Back 30

the planner focuses on policy decisions about the desired rate and location of development from the public interest perspective.