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69 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Presidential election turnout:
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50% - 60%
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Midterm elections turnout:
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about 1/3rd of presidential
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VAP
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voting age population
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Who votes?
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Old
Rich Educated Women Farmers Partisans Whites more than Blacks more than Hispanics |
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Who's the most important voter?
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Median voter - 6th Street
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Why isn't every Member moderate?
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- different districts (conservative/liberal)
- monies (PACs and shit support the extremes) - primaries - makes you stand out |
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The Standard View
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Party ID: You are born into your political views
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The Alternative View
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Party ID: You build your own views about politics
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Prospective Voting
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Looking into what candidate offers for the future
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Retrospective Voting
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Looking back at what the party has done for this country
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Name Recognition
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You have heard the name more times or more favorably
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The Democratic Coalition
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Poor
Black Jews Union Women Hispanics Gays Uneducated Secular |
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The Republican Coalition
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Poor
Southerners Black Catholics Union Women Hispanics Jews |
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The New Deal Coalition - 1932
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Set of voters to give Democrats the majority for 60 years
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The New Deal Coalition - 1932
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Labor Unions
Big City Machines African Americans Catholics Farmers Intellectuals Southerners |
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Who's up for grabs?
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Catholics
Grads Old People |
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1934 - 1994
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New Deal Coalition which kept Democrats in power
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1854 - 2008
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Mostly Democrats in control
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Why don't Americans like our Government?
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- Vietnam & Watergate
- Negative role of media - Increasing competition b/w candidates - Civic Education is not up to par --- however, this is happening everywhere |
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Police Patrol
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media, challengers, interest groups
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Fire Department
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the people
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reforms
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are not liked
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Civic Education is not up to par
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Government teacher is also the football coach ... actual the other way around
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1st Face of Democratic Accountability
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If members are doing what voters want they'll continute to vote for them
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2nd Face of Democratic Accountability
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If they act against your interests Members are punished by deceasing their vote
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Ways Democratic Accountability was tested by Theriault:
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- Campaign Finance Reform
- Congressional Pay - Conduct Audit - Term Limits |
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Conduct Audits
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Members of congress are always worried about when they vote that they will be audited by challenger/media/voters
- "Is this the vote that will cause me to lose my election?" -- Force Members to please us |
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Potential Preferences
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Members of Congress takes into consideration both sides of voters even if voters don't really know them
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The System Helps Us Out
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Police Patrols/Fire Alarms
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Fire Alarm
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Fire Department is centralized: they will only react when the Fire Alarm is rung
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Police Patrol
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Patrols all grounds and looks around until they find something that needs attention.
- Media/Challengers/Interest Groups - As soon as they find something they RING THE FIRE ALARM |
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Reforms
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don't work
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Why don't reforms work?
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Every time we try to reform Congress we like the process even less
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What helps America as far as voters and Members?
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- Americans are sophisticated - we can make a decision based on little knowledge
- We become engaged at times - 9/11 Potential preferences - Members of Congress take into consideration everything even if we don't know much about the subject - The System helps us out - Fire Alarms/ Police Patrols |
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Why do people vote?
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- They think their vote has an influence
- They are interested in politics - Civic Duty - it's their right |
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The Youth is more liberal in
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Education
Gay Rights More green! |
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Three Levels of Political Parties
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- Party Organizations
- Parties in the Electorate (PIE) - Parties in the Government (PIG) |
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Party Organizations
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-The actual organizations that carry out conventions
- Democrat National Committee and such |
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Pendleton Act
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- Ended the spoils system
- Ended Members giving money or jobs to voters so that they can have their vote |
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Progressive Era Reforms
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- Australian ballet
- Non - partisan elections |
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1970s Reforms
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- opening up the presidential primary
- campaign finance reform (now we know how much goes into campaigns |
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Parties in the Electorate (PIE)
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- The voters attachment in the electorate
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Parties in the Government (PIG)
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- The folks in DC
- They are elected officals |
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Three Roles that Parties Play
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- Money
- Branding - Primaries |
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Other Stuff Parties Do:
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- Research
- Arrange high profile visits - Help fund raise |
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The President's Role in Elections:
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- Brings out voters in presidency elections
- Medium term factors (when the president is in favor and not) |
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Split Ticket
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- Vote for one party in presidency and the opposite for congress
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Split Results
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- When a whole area of people vote split ticket
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Is split ticket voting increasing?
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There isn't much evidence that split ticket voting is increasing or decreasing but it favors that it is decreasing
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Why would someone vote split ticket (3 explanations)?
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- People don't trust the parties and want a balance
- Different strengths of parties at different levels - There is an ideological balance |
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How President Party does in Congressional Elections:
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- Gains seats when elected (12 in House on average, 2 Senate)
- Lose seats during mid-term elections - 6th year intellections (when America gets tired of president and votes against that party) |
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Coattails
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- Congress getting voter support by simply being in President party
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Surge/Decline
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Surge to the polls for presidential elections/ Decline for midterm
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Presidential Popularity
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- declines every day after election
- with everything he does he pisses off someone and popularity decreases - only exception are the Bushes because they became popular with their wars |
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How else can President influence elections?
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- Visit districts
- Policy favors - Political favors |
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Four Different Types of Elections
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- Realigning Elections (Most Important)
- Secular/Gradual Realignments - Maintaining Elections - Deviating Elections |
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Realigning Elections
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- When parties in power switch
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Secular/Gradual Realignments
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- Parties in power lose power over time
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Maintaining Elections
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- Parties in power stay in power
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Deviating Elections
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- Party in power loses power but then gains it back in next election
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Characteristics of Realigning Elections
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- Voter turnout is high (people are excited about election)
- Tension within party - New cleavages (old issues vs. new) - National issues are the focus - There is a unified party control for about 14 years |
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Five Critical Elections in History
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1800 - Andrew Jackson
- killing of the national bank - power for years |
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1994 Election
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- Important because it had largest midterm turnout
- all House seats were lost by Dems - House speaker was defeated |
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The Five Critical Elections
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- 1800
- 1828 - 1860 - 1894 - 1932 |
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1932 Election
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- Last time we had a critical elections
- FDR election - Presidents screwed critical elections cycle |
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6 Year Itches
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- 1958
- 1974 - 1986 |
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Google search Obama
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- 53%
- election percentage match |
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Bradley Effect
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- black votes less than polls
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2008 Election
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- pools super accurate
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