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31 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Jaké dva základní typy spreadů mezi měsíci dodání jsou?
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Mezisklizňový a v rámci jedné sklizně.
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Na jakém základě fungují spready v rámci jedné sklizně?
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Carrying charges - náklady na skladování, pojištění...
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Na jakém základě fungují spready v rámci dvou sklizní?
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Carrying charges a navíc se k tomu připočítává rozdíl mezi již sklizní pod střechou a tou, o která je ještě na polích.
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Jaký je vztah mezi kukuřicí a pšenicí?
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Because these two cereal grains have nearly opposite crop cycles, seasonal bulges in supply and weather concerns can drive dynamic spreads between them. Winter wheat is planted September/October, corn is harvested mostly October/November. Wheat is harvested mid May through mid July; corn is usually planted April/May. The USDA crop marketing year for winter wheat runs June-May; that for corn runs October-September.
Just when supplies of one grain are at their annual peak, the crop marketing year for the other is half over |
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Kdy je sklízena pšenice?
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Wheat is harvested mid May through mid July; corn is usually planted April/May.
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Kdy je sázena kukuřice?
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corn is usually planted April/May
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Kdy jsou největší prodeje pšenice?
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wheat sales tend to be heaviest from harvest through November.
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Zajímavý interkomodity spread kukuřice pšenice?
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When it is, prices for new-crop corn usually decline — sometimes sharply so. With supply pressures easing on wheat, the latter has usually outperformed the former into late July. In fact, the Long December Wheat/Short December Corn spread has closed more favorably toward wheat on about July 22 than on about June 30 in 19 of the last 21 years and in 26 of the last 29 — in none of which would any daily closing drawdown have exceeded 26.50 cents/bushel. (Each 1.00 cent/bushel is worth $50. Brokers accept nominal spread orders.)
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Proč se u spreadu Pšenice Kukuřice drží prémium většinou u pšenice?
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Partly because of its higher protein content, wheat nearly always trades at a premium to corn. A given year’s fundamentals dictate how large a premium. Last January, when producers were expecting to plant record acreage, this year’s spread traded as high as 236.00 cents/bushel. As recently as mid May, it traded at a premium of 206.75. But when it appeared that heavy and continuous rains through the Corn Belt would slow corn planting and potentially reduce acreage, the spread plunged. By this past week, it had fallen to a new low for this year at 148.25.
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Kde jjsou uskladněny zrniny?
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Grains are
largely stored in grain elevators located near major rivers and ports for shipping. Grain elevators are a series of bins, tanks, or silos that are able to store grain in bulk and then empty it into trucks, barges, or railcars for shipment to end users. In the United States, the Mississippi River and its tributaries are commonly used for grain shipments. The Mississippi allows access to New Orleans, where the majority of international grain shipments originate. |
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Jak je rozprostřena poptávka a nabídka u zrnin?
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In the grain market, the supply comes all at harvest whereas demand
is spread throughout the year. This creates supply in excess of immediate consumption. |
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Co zahrnují carry cost?
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daily storage cost,
interest rate, and the number of days the corn will be stored. In this example we will assume that the grain will be held for 90 days in storage before being delivered against the March corn futures contract. We will also assume daily storage costs of 0.15 cents/bushel and an annual interest rate of 5.35 percent. So the cost is calculated as follows: cost = (cost of near future ∗ (Interest/360) + daily storage cost) ∗ days in storage = (377.00 ∗ (.0535/360) + .15) ∗ 90 = 18.54 cents/bushel |
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Zářijový kontrakt kukuřice
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The September futures contract is active for a small period of time, and many
market participants elect to skip this future and trade the December instead. |
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Jaké jsou futures měsíce na CBOT pro kukuřici?
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The CBOT corn future contract trades
futures months of December, March, May, and July for each marketing year. |
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Kde se ještě kromě CBOTu obchoduje pšenice.
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In the United States there are two additional wheat future contracts that
are fairly liquid. One trades on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT), and the other trades on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE). The KCBT andMGEwheat futures have the same traded months, contract size, tick size, and tick value as the CBOT wheat future. The difference is the type of wheat deliverable and the location of delivery. The KCBT wheat future allows delivery of Hard Red Winter wheat (HRW wheat) within Kansas City, Missouri. The MGE wheat future allows delivery of Northern Spring Wheat (also called Hard Red Spring wheat) to grain elevators in the Minneapolis and Duluth, Minnesota regions. |
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Jaké jsou cenové vztahy mezi jednotlivýmy typy pšenic?
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The MGE HRS wheat is usually the
most expensive wheat of the three futures because of its high protein content and use in specialty breads. The cheapest future is usually the CBOT SRW future because it has the lowest protein content of the three futures. |
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Kde se ještě něchází burzy s pšeničnými kontrakty?
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Worldwide there are additional wheat future contracts, but none are as
liquid as the three in the United States. The most liquid global wheat futures are listed on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange in Canada, The Australian Stock Exchange, and the LIFFE exchange in Europe. Information regarding these future contracts can be found through the exchanges. |
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Co je to crushing?
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The second stage of production occurs when the soybeans are processed
into soymeal and bean oil. This occurs at a soybean processing plant and is called crushing. The soybeans are crushed, resulting in approximately 11 pounds of bean oil, 44 pounds of 48 percent protein soymeal, and 5 pounds of hull per each bushel crushed. Crushing occurs year round, as the soybeans are stored at harvest and processors buy supply as needed throughout the year. In the United States, nearly all soybeans are crushed. Worldwide, soybean crush has been growing since the 1990s, but its regional mix has undergone changes. |
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Sója a počasí?
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Early farmers recognized that soybeans were more drought resistant
than corn, and this helped to entice them to plant more soybeans in the early 1900s in the United States. Other weather-induced stress that can lower yield is extreme heat at the end of the flowering period. In addition, in the United States it is thought that frost may seriously reduce yields, but this is false. Nighttime temperatures prior to harvest must be sustained below 28◦F to seriously reduce yield.2 |
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Co je to GPM?
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gross soybean processing margin (GPM).
The GPM is the gross return for each bushel of soybeans processed. Processors need to decide when and if to make binding commitments to purchase and process soybeans in the future. The GPM is also referred to as the crushing margin. The soybean processor can elect to keep the capacity idle or to utilize it on any given date. The GPM can be locked in prior to the processing date by using futures. |
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Jak využít crushspready při obchodování?
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A Narrowing Crush Spread occurs when the price of soybeans rises relative to the sales
price of soybean oil and meal. When this occurs, the spread declines. A trader expecting a narrowing crush spread “puts on a crush spread” – buying soybean futures and selling soybean meal and oil futures. A Widening Crush Spread occurs when the sales price of soybean oil and meal rise relative to the price of soybeans. When this occurs, the spread increases. A trader expecting a widening crush spread “puts on a reverse crush spread” – selling soybean futures and buying soybean meal and oil futures. |
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Proč má sójový olej menší cenovou korelaci se sójou
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bean oil has a large amount of substitutable
commodities, unlike soymeal, so its price may respond to be competitive with those oils. |
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Kdy vznikají cenové úlety na sóje?
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The major culprit is a low stocks usage level in
soybeans during those times. The majority of the price spikes occur when the stocks usage level for soybeans is less than 10 percent. Stocks usage is the ending stocks for the marketing year divided by the usage for the same marketing year. In the case of the price increase to 1,000 cents per bushel in 1988 and 2004, the stocks usage at those times was at or below 5 percent.18 |
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Jaký je výhled pro futures soji?
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The long-term prospects for the soy complex are supportive. Increased
wealth and demand for meat products will continue to support demand for soymeal. Worldwide demand for bean oil to create biofuels will increase as interest rises in greener fuels. In addition, government mandates in a variety of countries on biofuel consumption along with tax incentives for biofuel production will continue to support this specific sector. Production in countries such as Argentina and Brazil, which still have available arable acreage, will increase. |
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Proč se výrazně liší cenou kontraktní měsíce sóji, které jsou po březnu?
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U pozdějších měsíců již má na ceny asi podstatnější vliv sklizeň na Jižní polokouli, ale asi již i měsíc F je ovlivněný odhady úrody na jihu.
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CH-KCH
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In contrast, winter wheat harvest was complete by August. Prices have normally enjoyed a post-harvest recovery as exports surged, commercial consumers bought, and supply began a 10-month decline. By early October, the initial surge of exports begins to slow and a pattern of consumption emerges. Futures prices have tended to trade sideways/higher during much of October.
But by early November, the market can change dramatically. Argentina and Australia harvest wheat in December/January. Foreign importers typically turn their attention to those new supplies. Because those supplies are newly plentiful, they tend to be less expensive — and US exports suffer. In fact, MRCI has found that December CBOT Wheat has closed lower on about November 19 than on about October 27 in 15 of the last 16 years. The net effect in the corn/wheat relationship is that, even if corn continues to suffer modestly in comparison during October, the spread more favors corn after harvest than just as it is getting underway. For example, the Long March Corn/Short March KC Wheat spread has closed more favorably toward corn on about December 16 than on about October 1 in 15 of the last 16 years — in only 5 of which would any daily closing drawdown have exceeded 18.50 cents/bushel. (For both markets, each 1.00 cent/bushel is worth $50. Check with your own broker about nominal spread orders.) |
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Proč sójová moučka nemůže být uskladněna?
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But soymeal is a protein supplement for livestock feed rations. It has no commercially viable substitute. It is nonstorable — it can turn rancid, so large inventories cannot be carried.
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Proč u sójové moučky nefungují carry over?
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Because it is a nonstorable commodity, there is little reason to build carrying charges into the market. Thus, for example, the Long December/Short July Soymeal spread has closed more favorably toward December on about November 4 than on about October 2 in each and every one of the last 18 consecutive year
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K čemu se používá sojový olej?
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The greatest demand for soyoil is as an edible oil product — shortening, margarine, sald and cooking oil. To a lesser extent it is also used to manufacture chemicals, paints, sealants, lubricants, and adhesives. But in both food and industrial markets, oil has many competitors derived from both animal products (butter, lard, fish oil) and other vegetable oils (cottonseed, canola, sunflowerseed, flaxseed, olive, coconut, corn, palm). Because of all the competition, soybean oil accounts for perhaps only a fifth of total world oil consumption.
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Jaký je rozdíl co se substitutů týče mezi soj olejem a sojovou moučkou?
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The greatest demand for soymeal is as a livestock feed. In contrast to soyoil, soymeal faces little competition from large-scale commercially viable substitutes. Consumption of this feed supplement is greatest during winter when livestock require higher protein content in order to maintain and gain weight. Because it can turn rancid, it is nonstorable for long periods of time. Thus, livestock producers aggressively buy meal during harvest and throughout winter. In fact, MRCI has found that March Soymeal has closed higher on about December 30 than on about November 17 in 13 of the last 14 years — the last 11 consecutively, also suggesting that deliveries of January futures are eagerly sought.
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Jaký je vztah mezi sojovým olejem a sojovou moučkou v zimě?
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Because soymeal normally accounts for 55-65% of the soybean’s product value, processors have every incentive to crush at capacity during harvest and through winter. As they do, however, stocks of soyoil can build almost as if it were a byproduct. Thus, soymeal has regularly outperformed soyoil throughout December. For example, the Long March Soymeal/Short March Soyoil spread has closed more favorably toward soymeal on about December 29 than on about November 22 in 14 of the last 15 years — suffering a sharp drawdown in only the losing year (2010). (Because these two futures differ in both pricing and contract size, MRCI calculates and plots spreads between them as the difference in their contract equity values, expressed in US dollars. A move of $1.00/ton in soymeal is worth $100; a move of 1.00 cent/pound in soyoil is worth $600. Thus, brokers cannot accept nominal spread orders.)
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