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27 Cards in this Set

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ATLSEA

Well Positioned Market


DL & AS, capacity flat for Q3


Initial LF cushion created due to capacity shifts


90% LF LTM


28% local


21% FA Margin LTM


Need to trade load factor cushions foryield premiums


Check curves 94 blf hdg jul Aug

MSPSEA

Share Market


DL 7x, NK1x (NEW!), SY 3x


Tweaking time bands for more yield (Aprl 29)


30% Local LTM


89% LF


20% FA Margin


SY transitioning to ULCC driving LEI pressure


PSB 21-60 dfd on off peak DOW


tweaking PSB strategy to get more RASM vs Share

DTWSEA

Well Positioned


PSB Market


DL 7x (757), AS (2x) , NK (1x)


PSB strategy to be refined for more RASM vs Shr


LTM FA Margin 19%


% Local LTM 28%


LF LTM 91%


NK Upgaged and flying 20 more days in Q318

LAXSEA

Traffic Bias


DL 8x has been up in capacity w more gauge and less frequencies, AA, UA flat NK Exit, VS/AS mrgr AS Up 12% 3q18


LF biased inventory outside 21DFD


65% local


86% LF LTM


-14% margin LTM


0-21AP fare increases YoY drives yieldgrowth, slows build


Protect seats for BIZ pax onpeak DoW


Staging market to enter 21DFD window with5pt LF cushion


adjusted aggressive ISM w/ AS




L3M segment margin was negative but improvingYoY.


April YoY margin change was -4 up from -7pts in March.


YoYimprovements are driven by yield on higher fares YoY.


I’m seeingflow traffic also up in last 3 months which is odd since this market istypically local ~(68% over last 12 months). Will dig into thismore. I think we could be doing better given our capacityinvestments. We noticed that it was downgaged for June (in error) andreached out to network and it has since been corrected. Workingwith the matrix and marketing teams on comms strategy to promote avodequipment.




This is a currently a traffic bias and I see forward loadsare improving from Jun-Sep with headings in the 95-100s throughSeptember. Previously it was a very fragmented market with UA, AA, VX,AS, NK and DL but with NK exiting in December and AS/VS merging, we should bepoised to improve performance. On a forward basis OA capacity is down forevery month and RASM is improving nicely. AA is down about 15% andthey had a crazy low fare ~$65 that contributed to LF loss in 1q-early2Q. Opportunity exists to explore why we are losing close in load (March–April) which might explain why we have such high headings in the next 4months. I’m seeing this is a theme for several SEA markets. I knowthe team is tweaking ISM so I will speak with Chad and Andrew about that to seewhat the latest is.

JFKSEA

Local fare improvement


DL up 6%, Mkt cap up 30.5%: AS+2/3x,AA+1/3x, B6 +1/2x •PremCabin Capacity up 39% YoY;


D1 1x out of 5, Mint 2xMaximize F/C PLF while protecting seatsfor BIZ pax


explore international flow markets - dig in to understand. Opportunity to better compete B6 and AS international flows


Monday flights do well but rest of day


struggles. can't get flow from northeast.


Talk to network to ask retime. 9:00 am flight added in June-Oct. UP to 5x with this add


Top corporates?


where do you see fares fr first class - do we need to be positioned more openly

DEN JFK

Share market


79% Local LTM


B6 and DL Only but AA coming in June




Add ISM or Time band


return direction is weaker


UA service from EWR, but WN, F9,

DENLGA

LF Bias market


DL, F9, UA, WN


93% Local ltm


88% LF LTM


-3% FA Margin LTM, -13% margin April 18down 4% YoY


Flows declining from CLT


f9 pulling out service and starting CLTDEN


Was part of CMI story in April

HNLMSP

33% Local LTM


91% LF LTM


equipment down gage from 330 to 767 plus DOW cap decreases


pricing actions taken due to SY connect on LAXMSP


Pricing actions in May 2018: 21ap (nonstop) and14ap (connect only) match to SY Summer Service § TVF 25MAY18 and TVC03SEPT18



JFKPDX

Share BIAS




Fare environment is worse YoY


going to 3x in Summer


Go for LF and maintain what we had LY


top declining OD was BOS where AS added BOSPDX


AS, DL, B6

SEASFO

AS 13 x (largest share), DL 7x but up 8% YoY going to 14% up in Sep , UA 6x


DL Flies 717 and 738 110 seats abd 160 seats respectively


78 LF LTM, flat YoY


68% local LTM, flat YoY


-10 Margin LTM, down 2pts YoY




Facebook and Amazon





JNUSEA/SITSEA

AS and DL 1x daily June-September


160 seats 737 Aircraft


4% avg margin, but 16% margin in july - best performing month


9% Local on average - what are the top flows?


JNU/SIT- Take time with Alaska Pod and takepostmorterm of what worked and what didn’t work for next summer - Changes this time weren’t as quick. - Put them on super sensitive list of markets- All on flow that we lost here so make surewe catch this. Flow loss



KTNSEA

xxx

ANCMSP

xx

ANCSEA

sss

BOILAX

xx

ATL-DEN

#4 Market


SFI - Ship Fare Improvement


DL 9X, UA 4x, WN 5x, F9 1x


F9 pulling out but putting back capacity via CLT


we have time band and Sat Stay


Get close on DOW on Tues Wed



LAXSEA

Traffic Bias


DL 10x, AA5x, UA 2x, AS 15x,


58% Local


26% Biz


LF HDG 96%

LIHSEA

DL 1x (Red eye), AS 1x ,


Intra island connex on HA and UA via SFO.


AWard sale in April


Filed another aggressive 25% and 30% of Off peak and Peak fares with travel complete 29 Aug.


New flight added in DEC, free flying


Time channel is not competitive

LAXLIH



No category


AA 3X, UA 2X,HA 1X, DL 1X UA up 69%,


Poor time channel and increases form OA have led to lf deterioration


0 AP sale filed



SLCSMF

Share Markets


DL 3x, Autonomous Market WN 1x noon time channel


previous outlier in share and has turned around improving 20 pts in share gap


LF 88% tends to run fuller in summer


Margin 9-10%, margins improving 3- 6pts yOY


strong LF trends for July and August

SEASMF

Share Market


AS 6X , DL 4x, WN AA6x


43% local


28% Business


We have large LF premiums in leisure.


Gain more share do we need to add capacity.


WN reducing and DL and AS adding

SEASJC

DL 5x, WN 5x, AS 7X


Strong RASM performance


42% Business


66% local


Most LF comes inside 30 dfd

MCOSEA

AS 2x (morning and red eye) DL 1x


In august our LF comps will look better because we removed capacity LY which should moderate LF declines.

DTWPDX

Share Market


DL 2x, AS 1x


Local 38%


Biz 21%


LF 88-90%


13% down 9pts YoY on less local revenue


PSB removal for peak summer causing share to decline but RASM improving WoW for July - August

ATLHNL

Well Positioned


DL 1x Autonomous


LF 90-92% down 2 pts YoY


Local 24%Margin 18% down 5-10 pts YoY


DL ASM down 16%


DL Flies A330 and 767 in October


Market affected by Extender fares


GSA bid won FY18 from ORF, ECP, PBI, CSG


Delta One service started in April 2018


LFs still headed to mid 90s and RASM improving for Aug and Sep

LAXPDX

Traffic Bias


DL 5x, AA 3x, WN 2x, AS 8X


62% local


28% Biz


in LTM LF has declined 12 points and continues to decline


NK - came out of this market TY


Local pax down flow pax up in last 2 months ending June


We will file share recapture initiatives to get the crazy flow fares from UA out of this market

DEN - SEA

Share market


Inventory holding up but LF continues to build but yield steadily declining


DL UA AS F9 WN