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14 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Availability heuristic
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whenever he estimates frequency or probability by the ease with which instances or associations could be brought to mind
breast cancer vs. diabetes flood vs. homicide lung cancer vs. stomach cancer strokes vs. all types of accidents tornados vs. asthma shark attack vs. falling airplane parts Bias due to ease of retrieval |
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Simulation heuristic
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Base judgments on how easily you can imagine:
how things will turn out in the future how things would have turned out in different circumstances. |
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One thing involved/contributes to simulation heuristic
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blaming the victim
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Conjunction fallacy
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Occurs when people mistakenly believe that the probability of a conjunction of two events (Hot and sunny) is greater than the probability of one of the events (Hot).
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People mistakenly report that words like “- - ing”
are more probable than words like “- - - n -” (which two things) |
Conjunction fallacy and availability heuristic
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With conjunction fallacy in simulated causal scenario, better to work with frequencies or probabilities?
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but only 25% make conjunction error here:
A health survey was conducted on 100 males. 1 - how many do you think had 1 or more heart attacks? 2 - how many do you think were over 55 and had 1 or more heart attacks. advantage in reasoning with frequencies (instead of probabilities |
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Framing effect
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The same information presented in different forms can lead to different decisions.
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Framing effect basketball example
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Subjects rate a basketball player more highly if the player has made 75% of his or her free throws, compared to their ratings of a player who missed 25% of his or her free throws.
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Anchoring and adjustment
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To estimate, start with an initial estimate (anchor) and then adjust. Final estimate is influenced by initial anchor.
Doesn’t disappear even with extreme anchors: Is the average price of college textbooks more or less than $7128.53 Is the average temperature in San Francisco greater or less than 558 degrees. Was the number of Beatles albums in the top 10 above or below 100,025. Influences real-life decisions Jury verdicts are harsher if jurors asked to consider verdicts in order of harshest to most lenient (e.g., Murder, manslaughter) |
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Coincidences and randomness
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People attach meaning to improbable events and see meaningful patterns in random events.
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Why people see hot hand in basketball
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Representativeness rears its head once again:
A random sequence would be a mixture of hits and misses. Several hits in a row can’t be random, must reflect an underlying reason. |
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Projective tests
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Rorschach Inkblot test according to clinicians:
references to moving animals (dinosaurs) indicate impulsiveness allusions to a blot’s “blackness” (spaceship) often indicate depression no evidence true YET: still accepted in court proceedings involving involuntary commitment and child custody psychologists who offer such interpretations in these hearings recognized as experts |
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Illusionary correlations in everyday life
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“I just know that…”
If I use premium gasoline the car runs better. The expensive wine tastes a lot better than the cheap wine. When I study with music I get better grades. When I touch my cap before I pitch, I strike out more batters. People with Illinois license plates drive recklessly. And in the clinical world: When my patients use therapy X they feel better faster. |
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Chapman and Chapman with illusionary correlations
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Chapman and Chapman (1967)
showed randomly paired drawings and patient descriptions to students students reported correlations that did not exist: “broad shoulders” = worried about manliness “large head” = worried about intelligence “large mouth” = concerned w/ being fed & cared for same correlations are reported by clinicians Illusory correlations Bias to see associations between two unrelated things See relationships where none exist Often based on preconceptions/stereotypes Hard to eliminate even with training |
