Psc 152: Heuristics And Biases

Front 1

Cognitive Miser

Back 1

We take shortcuts because cognition is limited

Rapid answers is better than slow but accurate

Front 2

Heuristic

Back 2

A shortcut to reduce complex problem

Rule of thumb

Satisficer > Optimizer

Front 3

Satisficer

Back 3

Prefers shortcuts

Front 4

Optimizer

Back 4

Need to know all the information

Front 5

Representative Heuristic

Back 5

Judgments are based on the extent of the instance appearing similar to category

Front 6

How likely is it that we get divorced?

Back 6

We see how similar to divorce via our parents?

(Representative Heuristic)

Front 7

Bag A: 10 blue; 20 red
Bag B: 20 blue; 10 red

80% time it's bag A
20% time it's bag

Blue Blue Red

Back 7

Bag B is Representative Heuristic

Front 8

Ignoring Base Rates

Back 8

Don't understand relevance of base rate information
Experiment artifact - Gricean norms
Case-History information seems more representative than base-rate information

Front 9

Experiment Artifact

Back 9

Experimenter gives pieces of information that is unnecessary and the subject feels the need to use the information
(BLUE BLUE RED)

Front 10

Case History

Back 10

Adding the one irrelevant sentence makes him seem less likely a murderer

Front 11

The Dilution Effect

Back 11

Diagnostic info is given with non-diagnostic...inference become milder

Because it seems less representative

Front 12

Ignoring Sample Size

Back 12

Often inadequately attentive to sample size
Small samples are poor estimates
Representative > Sample size

Front 13

Small-Sample Fallacy

Back 13

The belief that small samples is representative of larger population

Front 14

Streak Shooting

Back 14

We tend to feed the ball to the hot player so he gets more chances than everyone else and keeps looking better

Data does not support

Front 15

Regression to the mean

Back 15

Best guess is less
Extreme events are less extreme when reassessed

(We think prediction ought to resemble the predictor as much as possible)

Front 16

Sports Illustrated Jinx?

Back 16

Regression to the mean.
Statistically we won't do 2 best performances in a row

Front 17

Conjunction Fallacy

Back 17

More extreme predictions for joint concurrence of events

Front 18

Linda the Bank Teller

Back 18

– Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and
very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a
student, she was deeply concerned with issues
of discrimination and social justice, and also
participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which of the following alternatives is more
probable?
– A. Linda is a bank teller.
– B. Linda is a bank teller and active in the
feminist movement

People usually pick B

Front 19

Availability Heuristic

Back 19

Evaluating the likelihood of an event by available frequencies
(Homicides are told more, diabetes not so much)

Front 20

Why the Availability Heuristic?

Back 20

We have more information on homicide than diabetes

Front 21

Egocentric Biases

Back 21

Cognition about self is self serving

Overestimating what they themselves do, adds up to more than 100%

Remember the positive of self, not negative

Front 22

One sided questions

Back 22

Makes cognition relevant to one side. (Are you sad that you came second? Duh, that's how you asked them.)

Front 23

Imagination

Back 23

Events that are easier to imagine are more likely

More likely to go to Orlando

Orlando death > China death

Front 24

Ease of Retrieval

Back 24

Think of 25 friends
Think of 5 friends

Which feels like they have more friends

Front 25

Anchoring and Adjustment

Back 25

Start with a reference point (water) and adjust to final (vodka)

Freezing points

Front 26

Mechanisms Behind Anchoring Effects

Back 26

Selective accessibility of anchor consistent knowledge

Front 27

Insufficient adjustment

Back 27

Overweight the anchor and fail to engage enough adjustment