Pop. Geo.

Front 1

Why Pop. Geo is so Important (what)

Back 1

o Size
o Growth rates
o Processes – births, deaths, migration
o Population distribution
o Population demographics – age, gender, race, religion, income

Front 2

Why Pop. Geo is so Important (why)

Back 2

o 227,000 people added every day
o Relevant to global issues
 Healthcare
 Soc. Security
 Disease
 Food supply
 Jobs
 immigration

Front 3

Trends in Global Pop

Back 3

• World pop. – 6.8 billion
• We add 82 million every year – 80 million from less developed countries
• 7 billion in 2013, 8 billion in 2028, 9 billion in 2054

Front 4

Pop. Momentum

Back 4

• Future growth uncertain
• Momentum is for extreme growth
• 2050 projections:
o Low – 7.4 billion
o Med. – 8.9 billion
o High – 10.6 billion

Front 5

“Pop. Bomb”

Back 5

• Written by Paul Ehrlich
• Too much growth w/ no end in sight
• Birth rates high in developing countries
• Death rates drop b/c of public health and medical advances
• High b. rates + low d. rates = exploding pop.

Front 6

Countries to Lose Pop.

Back 6

• Account for less than 15% of world’s pop.
• But the countries are wealthy and influential
• Examples: Japan Germany, Italy, Russia

Front 7

Countries Growing Slowly

Back 7

• China the most important
• Fertility fell b/c of strict gov. control

Front 8

Countries Growing Rapidly

Back 8

• World’s least developed countries
• Mostly sub-Saharan Africa
• Other countries: Afghanistan, Haiti, Guatemala

Front 9

Why High Fertility

Back 9

• Lack of contraception
• “social security” in old age
• Culturally significant / cultural tradition
• Son preference
• Need for labor
• Illiteracy / lack of education
• High infant mortality rates – 10% for Niger, 6% for LDCs, only 0.6% for MDCs

Front 10

Why Low Fertility?

Back 10

• Lower incomes
• Gov. control
• Female employment
• Education
• Contraception
• Better healthcare/medicine
• Rising female aspirations

Front 11

India

Back 11

• If b. rate is to drop:
o Lack of son pref., more sex education/contraception, more female opportunities for school/work, wife’s given more decisions, lower infant mortality
• Female discrimination:
o No decision in having children, abused often, lack of education, sex selection/abortion
• Pop. consequences:
o Unemployment, overcrowding, food shortages, poverty, more education, disease, environmental controls

Front 12

Japan

Back 12

• Women having fewer children:
o Career oriented, marrying later, education is expensive, children as a burden, women need to work for $
• Dwindling b. rate problems:
o Care for elders lacking, fewer consumers/workers/tax payers

Front 13

Thomas Malthus’ Pop. Theory

Back 13

• English clergyman / college professor in late 1700s
• Theory based on 3 assumptions:
o Man needs to eat
o Sex will happen
o Pop. will increase faster than food supply
• Pop. will run out of food which will halt pop. growth
• …unless prevented by checks to growth:
o Preventative checks: (limits to birth)
 Abstinence, contraception, abortion
o Positive checks: (affect death rate)
 Poverty, disease, famine, war
• Pop. growth -> poverty
• Problems w/ theory:
o Multi-cropping
o Crop rotation
o More laborers
o Genetically modified crops
o Fertilizers, pesticides
o Widespread use of contraception
• Relevance to Malthus:
o Theory fell from favor, but has now come back due to recent pop. growth
o Spawned “Neo-Malthusians”

Front 14

Neo-Malthusians

Back 14

• Pop. growth creates problems w/ food supply and environment
• Will lead to mass poverty and deterioration of the earth
• Support family planning, contraception, and sometimes abortion

Front 15

Ester Boserup

Back 15

• Danish economist – 1960s
• Opposite of Malthus
• Agricultural developments depend on pop. growth
• Frequency of cropping
• Faced w pop. growth…
o Malthus would say death rates will rise to curb pop. growth
o Boserup would say people would intensify agriculture to grow more food and handle pop. growth

Front 16

Karl Marx

Back 16

• Big critic of Malthus
• The problem was that poor people did not have access to the control of food and resources
• No growth problem just distribution of resources

Front 17

Theory Review

Back 17

• Malthus: pop. will outstrip food supply and that will curb pop. growth
• Neo-Maltusians: pop. growth creates problems w/ food supply and the environment
• Boserup: pop. growth can stimulate agricultural innovation
• Marx: pop. growth not the problem but distribution of resources

Front 18

Demographic Transition

Back 18

• Transition from high birth rates and death rates to low birth and death rates
• Based on European history

Front 19

Stage 1:

Back 19

o B rate and d rate both high
o Most of history
o High incidence of disease, malnourishment, famines, etc.
o Equilibrium (not much pop. growth)

Front 20

Stage 2:

Back 20

o B rate remains high, but d rate dropped
o Why? In 18th/19th century Europe, better hygiene, public sanitation, more food -> fewer deaths
o Later, medical advance dropped death rate even lower but b rate remained high
o High b rate + low d rate = huge pop. growth

Front 21

Stage 3:

Back 21

o D rate continues to be lower
o B rate falls too. Why?
 Fewer children in urban setting
 Lower infant mortality rate is real
 Rising expectations
o Pop. is still growing, but not as much as stage 2

Front 22

Stage 4:

Back 22

o B rate and d rate are roughly even again, but at lower levels than in stage 1

Front 23

Description -> Theory

Back 23

o Different countries in different stages
o Stage 4 = economic development
o “take care of people and pop. will take care of itself”
o “development is the best contraceptive”

Front 24

Problems w/ Dem. Transition

Back 24

• Based on only one part of the world (Europe) during one time period (18th/19th century)
• Preconditions for the transition are very different now
o Fertility levels higher now in developing countries
o Mortality rate fell much fast in developing countries, but slower in Europe
o Pop. growth rate is much higher now
o Younger age structure = momentum for high future growth
• Dem. Transition as a series of transitions
o Mortality trans.
o Fertility trans.
o Age trans.
o Migration trans.

Front 25

• National Census of Pop.

Back 25

o Total count of pop. in an area
o Other socioeconomic info collected (age, sex, income, education)
o Expensive
o U.S. census since 1790
o Used for allocation of political representation and resources
o Often less accurate in developing countries
o U.N. helps LDCs
o Problems w/ census:

Front 26

• Vital Registration Systems

Back 26

o Births, deaths, marriages, divorces = vital events
o Historically handled by the Church
o Now by civil authorities
 US: National Vital Stats Division
o More complete in developed countries

Front 27

• Demographic Sample Surveys

Back 27

o Used when Census and Vital Registration is too expensive/difficult
o Based on a sample of the population
o U.N. helps in developing countries

Front 28

• Specific sources:

Back 28

o UN Stats Division
o UN Pop. Division
o Pop. Ref. Bureau