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28 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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What is a theory?
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A statement about the expected relationships between variables
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Dependent/Independent variables
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D: Outcome that we want to explain
I: Causes of an outcome |
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• Assumption
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o Theories are sets of interrelated assumptions that lead to predictions
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Predictive Accuracy/Logical Consistancy
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o How well are the predictions supported by the data
o No two or more assumptions can contradict one another • States seek to maximize power • Some states don’t seek to maximize power o Falsifiable? • Able to be proven wrong • Must Be Complete |
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Procedural Rationality
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• Most preferred is rational
• However choosing another option is not irrational • External Factors o Preferences of other actor o Information available |
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Game Theory
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• Explains the outcomes of interactions between individuals behaving rationally
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Six principles of Classical Realism
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o Human nature is governed by objective laws
• Self-interests o Statesmen think and act in terms of interest defined as power • What is the nation’s interest/power • Maximize power • Control of man over man o The interest in power is constant, though its form and content may change over time • Broad definition of power o Moral principles cannot be applied to the actions of states morality must be interpreted through the lens of national interest o No nation can claim the right to universal morality |
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Assumptions to the cause of war
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• The International system is anarchic
o No international authority o Living in Self-help system • States are the most important actors in international relations o Intergovernmental organizations do not matter • State are rational and unitary actors o Domestic politics does not matter in international relations • All states seek to maximize power o States are only concerned with their own level of Power o Absolute Power |
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• Security Dilemma
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o Too much power is a problem because other states might become afraid and pool against the state with counter coalitions
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Assumptions of Neorealism
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• States seek to maximize security
o Because of the security dilemma • States are most important actors • Sates are unitary and rational • The international system is characterized by “Structural Anarchy |
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1) Why do alliances form?
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a) Alliances are costly
b) Security maximizers will seek the largest gains in security relative to others |
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e) Too Many Alliances
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i) Leads to war; chainganging/entrapment
ii) Embolden your partner |
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f) Too Few Assurances
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Ally leaves you for another alliance
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2) What is the relationship between alliances and war
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a) Moral Hazard
i) No incentive to not act recklessly b) Larger partners have more bargaining power in a bipolar world i) Weaker allies feel abandonment |
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b) Bandwagoning
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i) Allying with the strongest state
ii) Increasing security iii) War Booty: Advantages of War |
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c) Balancing
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i) Allying in opposition to the greatest states
ii) Not balancing against the strongest state, rather the threat iii) States fear for their survival iv) Joining a more vulnerable side (if balancing power) could give you some greater bargaining power e) More countries joined US during Cold War because Soviet union was seen as a a more threatening state |
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War occurs
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most likely when states are roughly equal in power and ONE is dissatisfied with the status quo
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Cyclical Patter
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• Rise and fall of dominant power
o As time increases power increases, then evens out and the eventually tails down o Expansion overreach become too costly o Lower states have to pay for hegemons costs o The dissatisfaction grows the benefits of the order decrease o As a result for their own behavior, hegemonic powers create dissatisfaction in the world |
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What is diplomacy
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• Diplomacy is the mere act of bargaining
• Bargaining to achieve some outcome that is better than the alternatives • Coercive Diplomacy o The use of threats of pain and suffering |
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Two Types of Force
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• Power to Take
o United States bombing factories and production capabilities • Power to Hurt o Must be able to be withheld • Conditional upon compliance o Tries to influence their incentives |
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What is deterrence?
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o A situation in which one country/state (a defender/deterrer) threatens to realiate if another state (challenger/attacker) takes some form of unacceptable action
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Requirements for deterrence success
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o Deterrence works if the opponent believes that the cost of carrying out an attack are greater than the gains
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General vs. Immediate Deterrence
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• General: Trying to deter threats from occurring in the first place
• Immediate Deterrence: Trying to deter an action after a threat has already been made |
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Fearon: Why do wars occur?
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• Private information about resolve and incentives to misrepresent the costs/benefits
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How can you make an irrational threat seem credible?
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• Feign Irrationality
o Dangerous if facing a political defeat • Delegating authority to allies o Put the control in hands of someone that would carry out the threat • Delegate authority to lower level commanders o Make opponent attach some probability to the zero probability of war • Burn Bridges o No alternative but to carry out the threat |
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Costly signals
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• A threat is a costly signal if the sender incurs some cost that s/he would not be willing to incur if, in fact s/he would not be willing to carry out the threat
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• Sunk Costs
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o Regardless of your choice in the end you never get the investment back
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• Tying Hands Costs
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o Only pay the cost if you do not carry out the threat
• Reputational cost • Domestic “audience” costs • The only way for the defender to keep the challenger from issuing the threat is to convince it that you are resolute • Will fight a war just so that you don’t have to pay a cost |
