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26 Cards in this Set
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What is a civil war |
Civil war is an armed conflict that involves - military action internal to the state - active participation of the national government - effective resistance by both sides - sustained violence, 1,000 battle deaths |
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Brown - protagonists must have group identities and organizational capacities Civil wars are fought between self-aware, defined groups that have organizational capacities to plan and carry out military operations in support of political goals |
Various types of civil war Ethnic conflict Ethnic community: named group with myth of common ancestry, shared memories and cultural elements with a link to a territory and measure of solidarity Ethnic conflict: dispute about political, economic, social, cultural, or territorial issues between two or more ethnic communities Ex. Sunni vs Shia, Kurds vs Turks |
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Regional conflict Often ethnic conflicts and civil wars start out as interstate and become regional Five categories of effects of internal conflicts on neighboring states - refugee problems - economic problems - military engagements - instability problems - full brown war |
Interests of neighboring states: 1. Benign humanitarian interventions aimed at relieving stuff and restoring regional peace 2. Defensive interventions aimed at safeguarding national security interests 3. Protective interventions designed to protect ethnic brethren 4. Opportunistic meddling designed to further political, economic, or military interests 5. Opportunistic invasions |
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Regular (conventional) vs irregular (guerilla) warfare Regular warfare - waged between to regular state armies and between sovereigns who have right to bear war - identified soldiers in uniform - officer hierarchy weapon is displayed openly and demonstratively - observance of rules and application of the laws of war |
Irregular warfare - fight behind enemy lines - key characteristics - flexibility, speed, ability to switch from attack to retreat - increased mobility - fighting on own soil- indigenous population - supported or hidden by local population - secrecy and darkness strongest weapons - uses the enemy's uniform and symbols as camouflage - total war |
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Structural variables Post WW2 colonies gained independence relatively peacefully emerging norms discouraging expanding territorial boundaries by force - problem: weak state's remain weak - expected to provide for local population as a strong state (security and welfare) but do not have the capacity - local grievances emerge, weak states cannot cope Cold War local grievances exploited by superpowers during the cold war - rebels given training, weapons, ideological justifications - state also given resources - result: increase in duration and intensity of civil wars - Korea? Vietnam? El Salvador? Angola? |
Angolan civil war Angloan War of Independence 1961-76 Angola is a Portuguese colony In 1950s get a demand for independence; Portugal refuses In February 1961 the Marxist-oriented Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) revolts against capital Luanda In March, anti-government guerilla warfare led by Union of the Peoples of Angola (UPA) broke out in northern provinces |
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Rebels suppressed and estimated 20,000 Africans killed MPLA wages guerrilla campaigning from bases in neighboring Zambia In 1996 UPA split into pro-Western, socialist National Front for the Liberation of Angola (FNLA) and pro western National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) 1974 Portugal's government falls, new government relinquishes the territory |
In 1976 the MPLA gains control of Angola's Central government 1977- MPLA defeats UNITA, fled to Zaire and Zambia to regroup UNITA aided by convert Americans arms assistance and mercenaries from South Africa and Portugal MPLA backed by Cuban and Soviet Union |
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early 1980s UNITA extends control to central and southeast- support of GB, Fr, US, and Saudi Arabia US refuses to recognize government as long as Cuban troops in country Cuba removes troops in 1991 Negotiations led by SU and US result in peace treaty (transition to multiparty democracy) May 1991 ending 16 year war |
Structural factors and civil war onset Weak states and intrastate security concerns Do not have the resources to suppress violent conflict or coopt disgruntled fractions Provincial leaders become increasingly independent Groups within the state more able to assert themselves politically Groups that have been protected by the state vulnerable, feel the need to protect themselves- incentives to engage in military preparations Boarders controlled less effectively- outside influence and resources |
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Ethnic geography states with ethnic minorities more prone to conflict than others ethnic minority dispersion - highly intermingled less likely to face secessionist demands- not distribution in ways that lend themselves to partition - separated groups distributed along regional lines - secessionist warfare |
Nigerian civil war 1967-1970 Nigerian gained independence from Britain in 1960 with 3 large and cultural different people: Hausa Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo Igbo- better educated; held civil and administrative posts 1966 H&F began to resent Igbo 'outsiders' and rioted killing thousands. Igbo withdrew to territory Nigerian government decides to split the state into three regions prompting Igbo succession movement May 30, 1967- proclaim Republic of Biafara |
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Nigerian government launches offensive attempting to reclaim region; economic blockade of Biafra Nigerian government backed by Britain & Soviet Union Biafrans secured arms from France and supported by Canada Nigerian army better equipped With stalement and people starving, Biafra surrendered on Jan 12, 1970 |
Fearon and Latin Disagree with the conventional wisdom - Civil war in the 1990s was not due to end of the Cold War - The greater the degree of ethnic or religious diversity does not make a country prone to civil war Conditions that favor insurgency Insurgency: military conflict characterized by small, lightly armed bands practicing guerrilla warfare from rural base areas - relatively weak vis-a-vis the government |
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Conditions that favor insurgency:
1. Presence of rough terrain, poorly severed roads, at a distance from the centers of state power 2. Availability of foreign cross border sanctuaries 3. A local population that can be induced not to denounce the insurgents to government agents - Local Knowledge: Information about who is doing what at the village level - Allows rebels to threaten retribution for denunciation of credibility - Insurgents use this information to threaten their own people |
Salvadoran civil war 1979-1992 Government of El Salvador vs. Farabundo Marti Liberation Front (FMLN) FMLN – coalition of 5 left-wing guerrilla groups 1979 Military Coup New regime embraced by the US – economic and military aid Government attacks peaceful demonstration Killing of Archbishop Oscar Romero |
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Conditions that favor insurgency: To survive rebels need instruments to wage war Arms and material - money to buy them - good to trade for them Supply of recruits - recruitinginsurgents is easier when the economic alternatives are worse All of this is relative to the strength of the government. The government’s police and military capabilities affect the ability of the insurgent to have access to material and recruits 4. The weaker the government the more likely you will the outbreak of an insurgency |
Newly independent states – which suddenly lose backing of former imperial power and whose military capabilities are new and untested
Political instability at the center which may indicate disorganization and weakness – opportunity for rebels to capitalize on Foreign governments or diasporas willing to supply weapons, money and training Land that supports production of high value, low weight goods such as coca, opium, diamonds, that can finance an insurgency |
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Duration of Civil Wars – Fearon (2004)
Civil wars last a long time when neither side can disarm the other, causing a military stalemate They are quick when conditions favor a decisive victory What conditions favor a military stalemate in civil war? If conditions favor a stalemate, why don’t the parties negotiate? |
1. Coup and Popular Revolutions Make for Short Civil Wars
Coup-related civil wars: Civil war between groups that aim to take control of a state and that are led by individuals who were recently members of the state’s central government, including armed forces Popular revolution civil wars: Civil wars that, at its outset involved mass demonstrations in the capital city in favor of deposing the regime in power Median duration for these wars is just 2.1 years |
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2. Post 1991 Civil Wars in Eastern EuropeWhen civil wars shorted out by region – Eastern European cases related to the end of the Cold War are relatively brief
The average duration of the 13 post-Soviet cases are the shortest (longest are in Asia) |
4. Anti-Colonial Wars Tend to be Relatively Brief
Average duration for anti-colonial wars is 4.7 years (vs. 7.6 for the rest of the cases) Should these be included in the data? If Chechnya succeeds in gaining independence form Russia, should that be no longer considered a civil war but anti-colonial war? |
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5. Sons of Soil Dynamics Make for Longer WarsCivil Wars in Asia have lasted longer on average than those in any other region.
Similar dynamic – These states are dominated by a majority ethnic group whose members face population pressure in their traditional farming areas. Result, migration into less populous and less developed peripheral regions of the country These peripheral regions inhibited by ethnic minorities (sons of soil) who take up armsMedian duration of these conflicts is 23.2 years |
Bangladeshi Civil War 1973-1997
Indigenous (mainly Buddhist tribes – called Jumma) of the Chittagong Hill Tracts region bordering India and Myanmar (Burma) were marginalized by discriminatory policies of successive governments In the 1970s, a state-sponsored settlement of hundreds of thousands of Bengali Muslims in the Chittagong region on Jumna owned land. Goal: Alter the demography, further alienate tribes, and led to attacks between the two groups In response the Shanti Bahini (Peace Force) established a resistance movement aimed at securing autonomy in 1973 Bangladesh’s government signed a peace accord with the Jana Samhati Samiti (JSS) – the people’s party of the CHT – on December 2, 1997 |
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6. Contraband May Make for Longer Civil WarsFinancing from cocaine, precious gems or opium Colombia – cocaine
Angola – diamonds When contraband is present, the median duration for these civil wars is 28.1 years |
Yemeni civil war Ottoman Empire 1939 British set up a protectorate area around the port of Aden 1918 Kingdom of Yemen gains independence from Ottoman Empire North Yemen becomes a republic in 1962British withdraw from South Yemen in 1967 (communist) Unification 1990 Conflict between the north and socialist separatist south Civil war breaks out in May 1994 South receives aid from Saudi Arabia and Oman South loses and Yemen reunified President Ali Abdullah Saleh 2011 Yemeni Revolution - Unemployment - Economic conditions - CorruptionCalls for Saleh to step down June 2011 – Assassins wound President with an IED attack |
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November 2011 – Deal brokered by GCC to remove Saleh from power but not him or his family from Yemen’s political, military or economic domain
New President Abd Robboh Mansour Hadi Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Fighting amongst various tribes for control Rise of al-Houthi rebelsZaidi sect of Shi’ism found in Northern Yemen The tribe is displeased with the demarcation of its region, Azal, which has no access to the Red Sea, a large population and little in terms of water or natural resources Complex battlefield Saudi Arabia is home to a small Shiite population in its mountainous territories in the southwest, and a far larger Shiite population in its oil-rich Eastern province For Iran, Yemen's Shiite insurgency is an opportunity to distract its rivals in Saudi Arabia and eat up their resources Iran has provided al-Houthi rebels with limited material and financial support |
Iraq civil war 2003-??? Civil war termination Since 1955, of the 55 civil wars that fought for control of a central government (as opposed succession or regional autonomy), 75% ended with a clear victory for one side The government beat the rebels in at least 40% of the 55 cases Rebels won control for the center 35% Power sharing agreements that divide up control of the central government far les common – 9 of 55 cases or 16% Power sharing agreements typically reached only after a period of fighting has clarified relative military capabilities Agreements hold only when every side is relatively cohesive |
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Iraqi violence 2014 U.N reports 703 killed in February alone in 2014
Iraq 2003-2007 Post Saddam – Pre US Surge Things to think aboutPlayers: Goals, Interests, Means, Strategy Type of Civil WarRole of 3rd Parties: Regional, International, Outside GroupsThe Government: Political Parties, Army, PoliceState CapacityEnding the Civil War |
Iraq post Saddam March 2003 US overthrows Saddam Hussein and the Sunni dominated Ba’ath party (Assad in Syria) Coalition Provisional Authority; the Iraqi Interim Government; Iraqi Transitional Government May 20, 2006 Nouri al-Maliki becomes president of Iraq Iraq 2003-2007 Sources of Violence: - Sunni Arab Insurgency - Al Qaeda and affiliated groups - Shiite militias - Organized criminality - Kurds |
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Iraq 2003 – 2007: Sunni Insurgency
Sunni Arabs were in power under Saddam Angry about loss of power and dissolution of Iraqi security forces and de-Baathification of Iraq after Saddam Sunnis did not actively participate in the constitution-drafting process Oppose presence of US forces in Iraq but need those forces to protect them against Shia militias The majority of attacks on Americans came from the Sunni Arab insurgency The insurgency comprises of former elements of the Saddam Hussein regime and disaffected Sunni Arab Iraqis No single leadership but a network of networks – coaltion of Sunni tribal sheiks known as Sons of Iraq Significant support with the Sunni Arab community |
Benefits from participants with detailed knowledge of Iraq’s infrastructure
Arms and Financing are supplied primarily within Iraq Insurgents have different goals - Nearly all oppose the presence of US forces in Iraq - Most wish to restore Sunni Arab Rule - Some aim at winning local power and control |
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Iraq 2003 – 2007: Al Qaeda
Responsible for a small portion of violence in Iraq, but include the more spectacular attacks: suicide attacks, large truck bombs, attacks on significant political or religious targets Iraqi-run and composed of Sunni Arabs Foreign fighters (around 1,300 in 2006) play a supporting role or carry out suicide operations Goals: instigating a wider secretarian war between Iraq’s Sunni and Shia and driving the United States out of Iraq |
Iraq 2003 – 2007: The Shia
Majority of Iraq’s population Gained power for the first time in 1,300 years Primary Goal: Preserving that power Broad Shia coalition: United Iraqi Alliance Fissures emerging amongst broad coalition |
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Iraq 2003 – 2007: Shiite Militias
Shiite militias are diverse. Some are affiliated with the government, some localized, some wholly outside the law The militias target Sunni Arab civilians Also target each other as they struggle for power Some target government ministries Mahdi Army lead by Moqtada al-Sadr Up to 60,000 fighters Direct challenge to US and Iraqi government forces Encourage regular violence against Sunni Arabs Patrol Shia enclaves, notable northeast Baghdad’s neighborhood known as ‘Sadar City’ Clash with Badr Brigades Badr Brigade Affiliated with the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq a Shia Islamist Iraqi political party Led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim Long-standing ties with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Many Badr members integrated into Iraqi police force While wearing uniform, targeted Sunni Arabs Clashed with Mahdi Army, particularly in southern Iraq Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani Leading Shiite cleric in Iraq Unified Shia bloc with moderated aims within a unified Iraq |
Cycle: Sunni insurgent attacks spark large-scale Shia reprisals
Perception of unchecked violence emboldens militias, shakes confidence in government, and leads Iraqis to flee to places with their sect is the majority and where they feel they are in less danger Undermine authority of Iraqi government and forces and ability of Sunnis to join a peaceful political process Political leaders can preserve and expand their power only if backed by armed force |
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Iraq 2003 – 2007: Criminality
Robberies, kidnappings, murder, organized criminal rackets are thriving in unstable areas, especially Anbar province Gangs cooperate with, finance, or purport ot be part of the Sunni insurgency or Shiite militia to gain legitimacy |
Iraq 2003 – 2007: Kirkuk
Home to some of Iraq’s biggest oil reserves Mixture of Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmen Kurds want to succede from Iraq and become their own region Arabs and Turkmen oppose any change to its current status of being ruled directly from Baghdad |
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Iraq 2003 – 2007: US Coalition and Iraqi Forces
Confronting the violence are the Multi-National Forces-Iraq under US command working with Iraq’s security forces Authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 1546 in 2004 Before the surge (2007) had about 140,000 US military personnel and about 18,000 from 27 coalition partners (7,000 from UK) US Army responsible in Baghdad and north; US Marine Corps take lead in Anbar; UK in southeast, mainly Basra US military strategy focuses on “clear, hold and build.” Clear areas of insurgentsHold areas with Iraqi security forces Build areas with quick reconstruction projects |
Iraq 2003 – 2007: Iraqi Army & Police
Army - Security concerns regards loyalties of some unit and ethnic composition - Often reluctant to be deployed outside of own region - Lack leadership, equipment, personnel, logistics and support Police - Often engage in sectarian violence-targeting Sunni Arabs |
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Iraq 2003 – 2007: Governance
Government is not providing citizens with basic services: electricity, drinking water, sewage, health care, and education Government sometimes provides services on sectarian basis - Ex: Power only available in Sunni neighborhood of Baghdad two hours a day Security is lacking. Insurgents target key infrastructure Corruption is rampant Lacking Capacity: Many of Iraq’s technocratic class pushed out of government as part of de-Baathification Weak judiciary Economic development hobbled by insecurity, corruption, lack of investment, dilapidated infrastructure, and uncertainty |
Iraq 2003 – 2007: Oil
Oil – Iraq produces around 2 million barrels per day and exports 1.5 billion Oil sales make up about 90% of government revenue Oil is managed by the federal government Proposals to distribute oil revenue amongst population |
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Iraq 2003 – 2007: Neighboring States
Iran Most leverage in Iraq Long standing ties to many Iraqi Shia politicians whom were exiled to Iran during Saddam’s regime. Provides arms, financial support, and training ofr Shiite militias within Iraq Political support for Shia parties Porous border with Iraq Syria Malign neglect Syrians allow arms and foreign fighters to flow across their border into Iraq Former Baathist leaders find safe haven within Syria |
Iraq After US Withdrawal: Shiite Fractions
Al-Maliki Since becoming PM – consolidating power over Iraq’s military and intelligence services - Rival is Shiite Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani - al-Maliki creates counterterrorism force that reports directly to him - In December 2008 they arrest 23 high ranking officals in Interior Ministry eroding influence of al-Bolani - In 2006 - Iraqi National Intelligence Service was Sunni dominated - al-Maliki creates own intelligence unit - December 2010 forms new Cabinet which he is defense minister, interior minister, and minister of state for national security Al Sadr, the Mehdi Army and Promised Day Brigades A cease-fire reached in 2008 between Mehdi and US forces; Mehdi Army disbands al-Sadr creates the Promised Day Brigades in order to continue to have armed group under his control Training, equipment and funds from Iran 5,000 members Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq Lead by the al-Hakim family former head of Badr Brigade Bad Brigade has become the Badr Organization which disarmed and purely political organization |
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Iraq After US Withdrawal: Iranian Groups
Iranian encouraged splits in al-Sadr’s movement Emergence of Asaib Ahl al-Haq (The Groups of Righteous) and Kataib Hezbollah (Hezboallh Brigades) Controlled by the Quds Force wihtin Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Consider themselves as part of wider al-Sadr movement Have about 5,000 members each Well organized, well-funded and received extensive training from Iran |
Iraq After US Withdrawal: Sunni Fractions
Sunni National Insurgency – 50,000 Sons of Iraq members Baathists – lost strength and fragments as members shifted to more nationalist and Islamist fractions of the insurgency. |
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Iraq After US Withdrawal: Al Qaeda in Iraq
In December 2011 in decline to about 1,000 fighters Continues to stage substantial and indiscriminate attacks across the country Main operating base in north around area of Mosul |
Iraq After US Withdrawal: Kurds
Feeling significant pressure from al-Maliki, Iran and Turkey Continual imperative of defending Kurdistan region Paramilitary group has about 200,000 members |
