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43 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Name four problem solving idea generating techniques
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Associative - Comparing something unfamiliar to something familiar; Analytic - Break the problem down into smaller problems;
Brainstorming - Setting out to intentionally come up with alternative solutions these should be noted no matter what; Role Playing - Simulating aspects of the problem and proposed solutions. Imagine details of the possible outcomes. Put yourself in the shoes of others. |
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What are the steps to best solving a problem?
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1. Drop presuppositions that aren't explicit in original statement of the problem.
2. Make sure everything in original statement of the probelm is explicit. 3. Seek structural similarites between this problem and others that you already know the answers to. |
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What is an illusion?
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1. It seems to you that P
2. It is not the case that P 3. You would continue to think P until ~P is learnt. |
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Perceptual illusions are...
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a conflict between perception and what is known to be the case.
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Cognitive illusions are...
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a conflict between intuition and what is known to be the case.
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What are the three 'golden rules' to problem solving?
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1. Think about information in absolute rather than relative terms;
2. Always resist the illusion of certainty; 3. When making inferences about risks always represent them in terms of natural frequencies. |
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Whats the difference between absolute and relative risk reduction?
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Absolute risk reduction - People that die without treatment minus people that die with treatment; Relative risk reduction - Absolute risk reduction divided by people that die without treatment.
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What is the illusion of certainty?
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When something appears certain but is in fact not.
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How do you represent risks in terms of natural frequencies?
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Numbers are expressed as a ratio between two intgers. Inferences involving probabilities should always be done by way of a natural frequency tree diagram.
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In Decision Theory how do you set out a consequence matrix?
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Agents possible acts on the left hand side (rows), possible outcomes along the top (columns), insert the utility and probability values in the boxes.
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How, from a consequence matrix, do you determine the act which a rational agent should choose?
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A rational agent will choose the action that will have the highest expected utility, to calculate the expected ulilty multiply the possible outcome by the probability of it occuring in each outcome-choice pair and then add the rows to find the act with the highest EU.
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What is Ramsey's Hypothesis to working out outcomes and ulilities and how is it limited in its usage?
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So long as we know either the probability or the utility placed on that outcome we can infer the other value by proposing a series of bets. The law of diminishing marginal utility will limit is usage
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What is the law of diminishing marginal utility?
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For any good/service/sum of money the value of each unit decreases as the quantity of the good/service/sum of money increases. (utility gained from each increase, increases at a decreasing rate).
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What is the principle of Dominance?
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When the probability of the outcomes is not affected by the choice made it is never rational to choose a dominated act (a dominated act is one which no matter what the outcome is on act is better).
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What is risk aversion?
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Some people dont like taking risks, i.e Would you take a $50 bet on a fair coin in a chance to win $100 or $0
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The Inversion fallacy is..
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confusing a conditional probability with its inverse.
i.e Prob(A|B) does not equal Prob(B|A). |
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The Prosecutor's fallacy is..
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Confusing the probability of innocence given a match with probability of a match.
Prob(I|M) does not equal P(M) |
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Base rate fallacy is..
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The fallacy of ignoring information about base rates or prior probabilities when determining the value of a condtional probabilities.
i.e 60% of taxis are green. An old lady sees blue taxis 90% correctly and green taxis 80% correctly. What colour taxi is she most likely to see on a randomly given time? 60% will often be ignored. |
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When must one make a decision under ignorance?
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When it is not possible to find out the probabilites of an expected act.
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What is a decision under partial ignorance?
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One is in a state of partial ignorance when one knows the precise objective probabilty of some but not all the outcome choice paris. An attempt must be made to infer on EU with given probabilities.
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Under complete ignorance, what is the 'Maximin rule'?
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Compare the minimum ultilities for each action (row) and choose the action with the greatest minimum, in the case of a draw, using only the two actions that draw compare the next minimum and choose that which has the next highest minimum.
This rule picks the BEST, WORST case sceanario. |
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What is the 'Maximax rule'?
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Compare the maximum ultilities for each action and choose the action with the highest maximum, in the case of a tie compare the next highest and the row with the next highest value is chosen.
This rule picks the BEST, BEST case sceanario. |
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What is the 'Regret rule'?
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In each COLUMN pick the highest value and then subtract each of the other values in the column from this maximum. Pick the ROW with the minimum regret value.
This rule takes into account the regret we would feel picking a particular action. |
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What is the 'Optimism-Pessimism rule'?
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Find an optimism index ranging from 0-1 this is x
then apply formula x(MaxU) + (1-x) x (MinU) for each row. This rule takes into account whether we are optimistic or pessimistic about particular outcomes. |
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Whats the 'Principle of insufficent reason'?
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We assume all probabilities are the same as we have no reason to believe otherwise. Therefore if there are 4 rows multiply each U by .25 to figure an EU choose the one with the highest EU.
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What is the Representative Heuristic?
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An aid to reasoning/estamation of probability that A belongs to B is based on the degree to which A resembles B.
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What is the Availability Heuristic?
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Probability of an event is determined by the ease with which instances or occurences can b brought to mind.
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What are the problems with the maximin and maximax rules?
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They do not take into account anything other than the extreme values. This can make unwanted errors.
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What is the supposed problem with the regret rule?
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An additional row being added can sway the decision when the row isn't the one chosen.
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What is the problem with the Optimism-Pessimism rule that is apparant in the other rules?
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Since they only take the maximum and minimum values into account they fail to make accurate and proper inferences on acts that have several possible outcomes.
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What is the Standard argument for the Prisoners Dilemma?
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1. Either Capone will confess or he won't
2. If Capone confesses, then you are better off having confessed 3. If Capone doesn't confess you are better off having confessed. C. If you are rational you will confess Principle of dominance, confessing dominates cooperating, the probabilities are not affected by one another. |
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What are the rankings of preferences in a Prisoners Dilemma?
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Temptation, Reward, Punishment, Suckers-payoff
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What is the Free-Rider problem?
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Enjoying a common good without paying the small cost needed to maintain it, in a situation where the good would disappear if enough where freeriders.
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What is Foul-Dealing?
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Enjoying a benefit by harming or risking others in general.
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What is the Symmetry argument and its flaw?
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1.All parties are rational, fully informed and have symmetric preferences
2. Rational agents with full information adn symmetric preferences will make the same choice. 3. Therefore both parties will make the same choice 4. The only choices are cooperation and defection 5. Therefore the only choices are mutual cooperation and mutual defection. ** 6. Mutual cooperation is better than mutual defection. C. Thus each party is better off cooperating than defecting. ** They aren't the only choices. |
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What is the Maximisation Prinicple
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It is always rational to choose the act that maximises EU
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What are the 2 principles of Prudent Rationality?
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The Principles of Maximisation and Dominance
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Why are prisoners different to real life?
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1. They assume all parties are fully informed and rational.
2. They assume a lack of legal restraints on the parties choice of action. 3. They assume a lack of moral constraints on the parties choise of action. 4. Lack of communication between parties during deliberation. 5. Lack of interaction of parties after deliberation. |
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How would the Law changes a real life situation?
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The law can remove the option to defecting and cooperating.
Also, it can change preference ranking. |
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How can Morality change a Prisoners Dilemma?
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Kant's Catergorical Imperatice - One should only do what one wishes everybody did.
Alturism - Value cooperation for its own sake. |
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How could Communication affect a Prisoners Dilemma?
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They would be able to talk, act or offer commitment devices to ensure they would cooperate.
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For Iterated Prisoners Dilemma's what are possible strategies?
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Always Defect
Always Cooperate Random Tit-for-Tat |
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What makes a successful stratergy in a Prisoners Dilemma?
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Nice - never first to defect
Provocable - retaliates against defection Forgving - able to return to cooperation Clear - Obvious to opponent so they can figure out the stratergy |
