Patterns And Flaws

Front 1

Stick to the argument presented and focus on ___.

Back 1

validity.

Front 2

Note the speaker's ___ precisely.

Back 2

conclusion

Front 3

Identifying patterns in arguments by studying ___.

Back 3

logic

Front 4

Two things often occur together. Two things are ___. There is a ___ between X and Y.

Back 4

Correlated
Correlation

Front 5

Correlation DOES/DOES NOT guarantee causation.

Back 5

does not

Front 6

Unjustified Assumptions

Back 6

the most general kind of error involving a hole in the argument

Front 7

Causation Errors

Back 7

specific kinds of unjustified assumptions around causality

Front 8

Comparison Errors

Back 8

flawed or unjustified comparisons between two groups, situations, etc.

Front 9

Math Errors

Back 9

bad or missing numbers

Front 10

Communication Errors

Back 10

in a debate, missing the point of the other side.

Front 11

Unjustified Assumptions.
1. Assume Shared Beliefs which are ___
2. Draws Extreme Conclusion - watch these extreme words: only, never, always, cannot, certainly, obviously, inevitably, most, least, best, worst.
3 Assume Skill and/or Will - they have to ___ ___ to do it, and they have to ___ to.
4. Uses Vague or Altered Terms - Question any term that's insufficiently precise.
5. Assumes Signs of a Thing = Thing Itself - DO/DON'T confuse external signs and reality. A ___ reporting effect is especially acute when people have an incentive to over-report, or an incentive to under-report.

Back 11

1. mere impressions, prejudices, and so on.
2. be able, want
5. don't, false

Front 12

Causation Errors
1. Look closely at the ___.
2. Mixes Up Correlation and Causation
If X and Y seem to be correlated, then there are four possibilities
1. X Causes Y
2. Y Causes X
3. Z causes both X and Y
4. It's an accident we don't have all the data.
3. DO/DON'T assume that simultaneously events are necessarily connected.
4. Assumes the Future = the Past
Past Performance is no guarantee of future results
5. Assume the Best Means Success

Back 12

1. verb
3. Don't

Front 13

Comparison Errors
1. Has selection bias
2. Unrepresentative Sample
3. Survivor Bias
4. Ever-Changing Pool
5. The Troubled Analogy

Back 13

True

Front 14

Math Errors:
1. Mathematically provable conclusions.
2. Confuses the Quantities - keep percents and real numbers straight.
Rate x Time = Distance
Profit = Revenue - Costs
(Dollars per Hour) x Hours = Dollars

Back 14

True

Front 15

Communication Errors
1. Missing the point.

Back 15

True

Front 16

Match the Letters to the Numbers:
A. Unjustified Assumptions. B. Causation Errors C. Comparison Errors D. Math Errors E. Communication Errors
1. Assumes Shared Beliefs
2. Draws Extreme Conclusion
3. Assumes Skill and/or Will
4. Uses Vague or Altered Terms
5. Assumes Signs of a Thing = Thing Itself.
6. Mixes up Correlation and Causation.
7. Assumes the Future = the Past
8. Assumes the Best Means Success
9. Has Selection Bias (unrepresentative sample, survivor bias, ever-changing pool)
10. The Troubled Analogy
11. Confuses the Quantities (percents, rates, ratios)
12. Missing the Point.

Back 16

1- 5 is A
6-8 is B
9-10 is C
11 is D
12 is E

Front 17

A gap is the ___ ___ between one premise and another premise, or between a premise and a conclusion.

Back 17

argumentative