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83 Cards in this Set
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1-You are headsup and last to act on the river with the nuts. You have 10c-7c. Final Board is 9s-8s-6h-2c-5d. After some bets on the previous rounds, the pot contains 100. You each have 500 left. He bets 50, raise 50, 150, or 450?
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If you raise 50, he will probably call with most of his possible hands. Probably about 80% of the time. If you raise to 150, he will fold any hand that doesn’t include a seven. He has a relatively good chance of having a seven since he bet the river into this scary board. Lets say 40% of the time. He will only call the big raise 50% of the time when he has a seven, so 20%. .8 * 50 = 40 , .4 * 150=60, .2 * 450 =90. Anyone with a straight will be hard-pressed to call a decently sized raise, and anyone with a straight will be hard-pressed to fold. You can make a tiny raise to get two-pair and trips to call or try to get the most out of a straight. Because you have so much money behind, your best play is to move in and hope he has a seven.
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2-Pot size philosophy
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big pots for big hands, small pots for small hands. Look at your hand, look at your opponent. Look at stack sizes. What will happen if you bet 30? What will happen if you bet 60. If you want to play a big pot/ small pot, take the action now that is most likely to produce that size of pot.
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2A-Thinking about how to manipulate pot size.
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It will depend on the board, the size of the pot, opponent’s proclivities. What does he have, what does he think you have? How will he view a bet of various sizes. Gauge how big the bets and raises are likely to be throughout the hand, then look at the stack sizes and see when, if, and how to build a big pot. Then pick the option most likely to get all the money in the pot. If you want a small pot, go through the same process, just select the option least likely to produce a big pot.
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3 ---2-5 no limit with $500 stacks. In BB with 5h-5s. Someone opens from MP for 20. You call. Flop comes Kh-9h-5c. How do you build a big pot?
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1-assume he has a hand he will go all in with. He has 480 left. You want him to suspect your hand when there is 500 in the pot and 250 left. So the last bet should be 250, either as a turn raise or a river bet. So the 230 can be broken up either as 70-160 or 30-70-130. The two chunk option has the benefit of offering him few chances to gauge your bet strength. The drawback is it requires a flop overbet(70 into a 40 pot). An astute or skittish opponent might get spooked. How will he view your overbet? The three chunk option doesn’t ever overbet, but he has to make a bet or raise somewhere along the line. If he will raise the flop and bet the turn, 3 chunks is better. But if he isn’t aggressive you would have to check-raise twice, which is hard and might scare him off. So if your opponent calls your big bets too much but doesn’t raise enough, two chunks is better. If he is hyperaggressive, but likes to make laydowns, 3 chunks is better. If you have been caught in a check-raise bluff, a check-raise strategy is better.
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4-Say you have 500 in a 2-5 game. You make it 20 in mp with Jh-Jd. Everyone folds to BB, who has you covered. You see that he has As-Ac, so you can play perfectly against him. How big does his raise have to be for you to fold?
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If he raises all-in: 480 more, you should fold. You’re a 4.5-1 dog, getting 520-480. Since pocket jacks will flop a set one time in nine, if he offers 1/8 of your possible win, calling would be break-even at best. 520/8= 65.
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4B-How is this affected by imperfect info.
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The more your opponents know about the exact nature of your hand, the more you have to bet immediately to avoid offering them too high implied odds. And vice versa: The more you know about your opponents hands, the larger of bets you can call trying to bust them/ bluff them.
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5-What does “don’t justify your opponent’s optimistic calls” mean
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Before making a bet or raise, ask yourself, am I planning to pay off a big bet on this hand, or will I fold before it comes to that? If you are willing to risk losing a lot, avoid offering too high implied odds to players with the most likely draws. If you aren’t planning to pay off a big bet(because you don’t think he will often bluff), then consider whether your opponent will call too often with weak draws, hoping to bust you. If so, bet an amount that will look small to her, but you know actually is too much for him to call since you know you wont go broke.
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5A- You have Ah-Qh on the button with one opponent and a flop of Qs-8d-3h. 100 in the pot , 800 in your stack.
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With such a strong hand and a small stack, it is likely all your money is going in before the end. So he can call a flop bet, hoping to bust you on a happy turn card, and he can. You need to bet enough on the flop to avoid offering him too high implied odds for the likely draws. Likely draws are middle or bottom pair, like 9s-8s. 5 outs, he’s 8-1 to make his hand. He stands to win 684.10 if he does. So you need to bet 684.1/8= 85.51 to avoid offering too high implied odds. The more you bet, the more you profit from his call. Bet 100 or 120 if you think he will call with middle pair.
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5B- You have Ah-Qh on the button with one opponent and a flop of Qs-8d-3h. 100 in the pot , 5000 in your stack.
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Now to avoid offering to high implied odds to someone with middle pair or a gutshot, you’d have to bet many times the pot. Then you will mainly get action from two pairs and sets. Estimate how often you’ll likely lose while finding out your no good. We will say you will lose 684.1 This number will go up or down depending on how good your opponent is. Bet large enough to make sure your opponents wont profit by trying to outdraw you, but small enough so they might think you offered them too high of pot odds.
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5-Basic rule of bet sizing
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If his hand is worse than yours, and it is fairly obvious what it might be, bet more than he can profitably call.
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5B-You have Ah-As on Qd 7d 2c 4s board. He checked to you in a 100 pot. You both have 400 behind. You think he certainly has a diamond flush draw.
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he has nine outs, 4-1 dog, so make his implied odds worse than 4-1. His implied odds are no better than the pot odds since you can fold if a third diamond comes. A 40 bet offers 3.5-1(140-40) so bet at least that much. In practice he will call much more than that since he expects to win a river bet if he hits.
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5C-Bet Sizing
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1)Bet sizing when your opponent could have one of several draws-bet a larger amount than you would if you knew which draw he had. 2) But don’t bet too much because you want him to call. 3) The size of his mistake will be proportional to the excess amount you bet beyond the break-even point. 4) Bet the amount that maximizes you expectation- the value of his potential mistake x the chance he will make the mistake. 5)Choose your bet size to maximize your overall expectation, even if it means sometimes he can draw correctly against you. 6)If he could catch his draw, but still be second best, tend to bet an amount your fairly sure he’ll call. Don’t miss a chance to stack him by blowing him out too early.7)The more likely he is to have you beaten, the less chance you should bet at all.
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6-The hammer of future bet sizes
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When your opponent has a lot of money behind him, a small bet from him can be just as dangerous because of reverse implied odds. When you possess the hammer, take advantage of it by betting weak hands before the last round when you think your opponent’s hand is mediocre. With a deep stack and a good hand often check the turn against a player you think has a weak hand. He might fold to a turn bet, fearing the hammer of a river bet. If you check the turn he might pay off a river bet.
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7-Bluff sizing, basic rule
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bet enough to get the job done, but not much more. Have a range of hands that your opponent might have in mind. Bet enough to get them to fold these hands. If you think he has one pair, then bet enough to get him to fold one pair, not any more. “If I bet X, what will he put me on, what will he view his pot and implied odds as, and will he see his pair of queens as profitable.” Get in their heads and see your bets from their perspective. Sometimes a small bet will be more likely to get the job done.
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8-Turn and River bluffs
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When bluffing on the turn and river, maximize the size of your turn bluff while still leaving enough for a credible river bluff.
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9-Bluffs and stack sizes
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The threat of a big bet is more powerful than the big bet itself. Bluffs are most effective when the threat of an even bigger and harder-to-call bet looms on the horizon.
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10-Effective deep stack management
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MAKE NO BET OR RAISE WITHOUT PLANNING OUT THE BET, POT, AND STACK SIZES FOR THE REMAINING STREETS
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11- 5/10 with 1500 stacks. One limper, and a tight and straightforward player makes it 40 to go from two off the button. You are next to act with Ah-Ks.
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You might sometimes call, but vs this player a reraise might give you more info. It makes sense to make an 80-100 reraise to see if she puts in the third raise. You want him to fold AQ, AJ, and KQ and will reraise only AA or KK. This also give you info about all the other player’s hands. Just calling might encourage an enterprising player to call with some unreadable hands or take a big shot at both of you by making a big semi-bluff raise. So your reraise not only tells you more about the initial raiser’s hand, it keeps the other player’s actions more pure, allowing you to make better decisions.
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12-Preflop betting has led you to the conclusion that your straightforward opponent likely has a pocket pair like you do, but your not sure who’s is higher. On an unthreatening flop of 9-5-2 rainbow.
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Make a substantial bet, as many straightforward players will tend to reraise with a big pair(like AA or KK) and just call with a smaller pair. Since you only have 2 outs if behind, this can help you make a decision.
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13-Someone makes a raise of 40 under the gun in a 2-5 game.
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This uncharacteristically large raise is designed to scare off the riffraff, while limiting reraises to only bigger hands. This shows the perils of betting big for information vs perceptive or skilled hand-readers. The JJ guy is out of position and has told everyone what he has- usually JJ, maybe 1010 or maybe AK. This is a bad situation to be in. So use the info-gathering play wisely and use it vs straightforward and unaware players(players who will never just call your information bet or raise with great as well as just good ones). Vs better players you can do it too, just mix it up with big hands as well.
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14-Two players limp to you on the button with Js-10s. You call 10. sb calls, bb checks. Flop is Jd-Jc-10h. Everyone checks to you, you check. The turn is the 7s. Everyone checks to you, you check again. River is the 3s, sb bets 50. everyone folds to you.
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He probably has a weak made hand, a bluff, or a marginal value bet. Even a minimum 50 raise probably wont be called. But there is a chance he was slowplaying too. He could have TT, J7, 77, or 33. Then he would call a 440 all-in-raise. Since there are only a few hands that would call a 50 raise but not 440, a big raise makes sense. If your opponent is likely to be weak, but possibly could be sandbagging a big hand, with the nuts you should often assume strength and make a big bet.
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15-You have 1000 in a 5-10 game and your on the button with Ah-4h. After a few players fold, someone makes it 30 to go. You call, the blinds fold. The flop comes Kh-Ts-7h, giving you the nut flush draw. Your opponent bets 50, you call. The turn is 3c. Your opponent checks and you check. Pot is 175. River is the 5h, giving you the nuts by completing the obvious flush draw. He checks again.
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This is a good time for a modest river bet. 60-80. He probably doesn’t have much, and he might call with a pair. If he has a big hand, he might check-raise, reopening the betting. An aggressive player might try a check-raise bluff if he thinks your bet is weak. A SMALL BET LOSES ONLY WHEN YOUR OPPONENT HAS A HAND THAT’S GOOD ENOUGH TO CALL A BIGGER BET BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO CHECKRAISE(k10). Given the action this is unlikely.
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16-You are playing 10-20 with 4000 stacks. An ep player makes it 80, one caller, and you call one off the button with 6s-5s. Blinds fold. Flop comes Ks-Qd-4s. Preflop raiser bets 200, mp folds, and you call. Pot is 670. Turn is 8h, giving you a gutshot to go with your flush draw. Opponent bets 400, you call. River is a 7c. You opponent bets 600.
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You should probably move all-in(2720). He has raised every street, he likely has a good hand. Maybe top two or a set. You appear to have been drawing by calling the flop and turn, but the obvious draw, the flush draw didn’t get there. She might interpret your huge raise to be a bluff made with a busted flush draw. WHEN YOUR OPPONENT HAS SHOW STRENGTH, AND YOU’VE MADE A SURPRISING OR UNLIKELY HAND, CONSIDER MAKING AN EXTRA LARGE BET OR RAISE. Many players are suspicious about large bets on the river, against them make extra big bets with the nuts.
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18-Loose ten handed player with observant but not excellent players, the blinds are 5-10, stacks are 2000. One player limps, you limp in mp with As-9s. Two players limp behind you, sb calls, bb checks. Pot is sixhanded for 60. Flop Js-8s-5s. Everyone checks to the player to your right, who bets 60. What should you do?
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Being out of position hurts the strength of your hand because if you call or raise the bet from someone who obviously has a good hand to bet into so many people, you are showing you have a huge hand. When you opponents are out of position, they may have to tip the strength of their hand earlier than they want to. Pay attention!
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#19 10-20 game with fairly good players. Your on the button with a 2000 stack. An ep raises to 60, a knowledgeable player in mp calls, and you call on the button with Ah-Qh. BB calls. Pot 250. Flop comes Qc-7d-2h. BB checks, preflop raiser bets 200. Mp calls, you call, bb folds. Pot is 850. Turn is Js. Pf raiser checks, mp bets 700.
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Unless bettor is very wild, you have a clear fold----1)mp has shown consistent strength oop on a drawless board. Likely to have big hand either QJ or a set. 2)call ep raise pf with several to act after him. Depending on how loose he is, this doesn’t necessarily indicate strength. Loose players will call with a lot here. 3)Then he called a pot sized flop bet on a drawless flop with terrible relative position. He might be as weak as 88, hoping everyone else will fold. But you called, indicating a lot of strength. 4)The turn bet is a huge show of strength out of position. He knows he might be oop vs a good hand and he doesn’t care. He made a pot commiting bet- hes bet 960 total, so he has 1040 remaining. If you raised all-in, he would be getting 3-1. If hes rational, the worst hand to expect is A-Q. Q-J or a set are more likely.
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#20-Preflop bet size vs total pot size
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in no-limit holdem, preflop betting is just a drop in the bucket. In a 10-20 game with deep stacks, often there are 100 preflop raises with 5000 or more behind. If 10,000 pots occur even occasionally, 200 or 300 is just a drop in the bucket. This doesn’t let you make pointless calls and raises, but it gives you more flexibility to play and even raise with marginal hands since you can make it up after the flop.
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#21-6 reasons to raise preflop
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1)Value 2)Isolation 3)Steal the Blinds 4)Semi-bluff 5)Deception 6)Manipulate the pot size
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#22—10/20 game with Ad-Qs preflop 4000 stack vs 100 stack
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With the big stack and so much left to bet, your bet has changed the course of the hand and might have helped your opponents read you hand or make sharper postflop betting decisions. So it isn’t worth quite as much as if you had only a 100 stack. Now it is a no-brainer. THE SHALLOWER YOUR STACK, THE MORE COMPELLING RAISING FOR VALUE BECOMES. In other words the larger the percentage of your stack(or your opponent’s if theirs are shallower) a preflop raise constitutes, generally, the stronger you hand “hot or cold” must be to make the raise. If a raise is only 2% of your stack, you need not raise with all your strong hands, and need not necessarily have a strong hand to raise. If a raise is twenty percent of your stack or more, you should typically raise with all your strong hands and rarely otherwise.
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#23---Raising for isolation in no-limit holdem
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does not work as well as in limit holdem. 1-The blind money is a much smaller % of you expectation for the hand. 2-The punishment for accidentally isolating someone who has a better hand is far greater. The exception is if a bad player with a deep stack enters the pot in front of you, frequently try to isolate him. You will win a lot more on average playing a raised pot, headsup vs a bad player with position instead of playing an unraised, four handed pot with him and some tough players.
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#24---Raising to steal the blinds.
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1-The immediate odds aren’t as compelling. 2-If you are a better player than the blinds, you may make more by allowing them to see the flop and make expensive post-flop mistakes than by shutting them out immediately. Ex-if you have Jh-9h it isn’t a big favorite vs two random hands, so you don’t forgo much value by failing to raise.
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#25—Raising is profitable when the following equation is true
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(chance everyone will fold)(pot size+raise size)+chance one or more will call with no raises)(how much the hand is worth if you see the flop)>(raise)
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#26-What hands to semi-bluff with preflop
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hands that are –EV to call with, but not by much, like Q-8s.
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#27-Fundamental idea of deep stack raising
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Big raises makes big pots, small raises(and no raises) make small pots.
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#28-Playing 5-10 with 1500 stacks. Your opponent is tight. You get 44 on the button. He has AK in BB. You know somehow that the flop will be K-9-4 rainbow. How do you get his money
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If you only raise to 30 preflop, and he makes top pair on the flop, there will be 60 in the pot. If he bets out 60, that leaves 1400 in his stack. If he is tight, and you make a move early in the hand, by raising the flop or turn, he will figure out he is behind, oop with little chance to improve, vs a deep stack. If you just call the flop, he will become extremely wary. He will likely check the river or make a blocking bet and he probably wont call a big bet or raise. You will probably only make a few hundred. If you raise to 60 preflop, it changes the complexion of the hand entirely. Now the pot is 160 preflop, and after a 120 bet and call on the flop, he will only have 1160 left in a 360 pot. If he makes a pot sized bet on the turn, you can raise all-in, and he will be hard-pressed not to call. He will be getting 1880-800 or 2.35 to 1. That would be a tough laydown. But vs a super-agro player who will lose his stack anyway, you don’t need to make this raise.
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#29 Downside to making big raises with “speculative” hands.
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The bigger your raise, the more getting reraised costs you. When you raised to 30, if the AK reraised you to 100 or so, you could call, it would be 70 more to you, with position, with 1400 left in the stacks, or 20-1 stack odds. Then stacking him on the flop will be almost automatic. If when you raised to 60, he raised to 200, you situation would be grim. Now it would be 140 more to you, with only 1300 left, so stack odds are 10-1. If you don’t catch something on the flop you will lose a lot more. But as long as you are mixing up your play well, you shouldn’t get people playing back at your big raises too often. DON’T RAISE MORE THAN YOUR NEED TO GET THE JOB DONE. Suppose you had AK on the button. Now a 60 raise makes no sense. You rarely will win a big pot, but you might win a moderate pot vs A-9 or K-10. So there is no reason to get those hands to fold.
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#30---Raising for value preflop vs straightforward players.
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Make bigger raises vs straightforward players, since they will tip their big hands to you earlier and more reliably. You will be able to get a way from bad situations more quickly and cheaply. You can raise hands like AK out of position, since he will fold the flop if he misses, call the flop with a draw or good pair, and raise a good hands. A big raise preflop nets you extra value from small pots, and you can get away from a big pot.
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#31---Raising preflop vs weaktight players.
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MAKE BIGGER RAISES AGAINST PLAYERS WHO FOLD TOO MUCH POSTFLOP. Specifically the ones who call preflop raises too liberally and then fold too much to big bets on later streets. Raise preflop when you have position, you hand isn’t so important since they will fold a lot. Then make big bets until they fold. Bluff when they are likely to be weak, and check it down when they seem stronger. Since you will end up with most of the pots, they might as well be big pots. The bigger the pot, the more expensive of a mistake their fold is. Don’t do it so often that they catch on and start trying to trap you.
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#32—Raising preflop vs players who call too much postflop.
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The opposite of the other kind of postflop player. If he calls too much, his bad calls are worse the smaller the pot is. Keep it small preflop and let him hang himself on your good hands and big bets postflop. Why raise 60 to make him go broke with AK postflop when you can do it with 30.
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#33 nine handed 5-10 game. Noone is particularly good or bad. The game is somewhat aggro preflop, many pots are raised. Everyone has 700. You are 3 off the button with 8h-8c. Everyone folds to you. Compare limping to raising in various scenarios
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With this stack size and this hand you are better off limping than raising to 40. Raising might have been better the times you could have stolen the blinds or played headsup vs BB. Limping is better since it encourages others to enter the pot with weak hands. Raising might draw a reraise from a big pair, which is bad. Small and medium pairs play well vs big pairs when the preflop betting remains a small percentage of the stack sizes. But big pairs pull away as pf betting gets big. So when you raise, you allow them to reraise you, and play perfectly, and this is your main concern.
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#34 nine handed 5-10 game. Noone is particularly good or bad. The game is somewhat aggro preflop, many pots are raised. Everyone has 2000. You are 3 off the button with 8h-8c. Everyone folds to you. Compare limping to raising in various scenarios
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With this size of stacks, raising is better since it makes the postflop bets larger in size those times you flop a set, and you can still play profitably vs a big pair after a reraise since the stacks are so much larger.
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#35 nine handed 5-10 game. Noone is particularly good or bad. The game is somewhat aggro preflop, many pots are raised. You have a 100 stack and everyone else is bigger. You are 3 off the button with 8h-8c. Everyone folds to you. Compare limping to raising in various scenarios
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Raising is better. You no longer are focused on doubling up after flopping a set. Now you want to focus on stealing the blinds or playing headsup.
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#36 An aggressive player raises to 30 in lp in a 5-10 game. You call in BB with Ah-10h. Flop comes Qh-6h-4s, giving you the nut flush draw.
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Call a 60 flop bet, but lead out the turn for 80 into a 180 pot.
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#37 Blocking bets on the river
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most useful when you have a mediocre hand, maybe a good one-pair hand, barely worth checking and calling with. He likes to make a half-pot size bet on the river. He will bluff with about as many hands as he will call with.When you bet, he will fold all the hands he would have bluffed with, and call with some weak bluff-catcher hands he would have checked behind. If he likes to bluff a lot, he will bluff with more hands than he calls with, then a blocking bet isn’t profitable, since it will keep him from bluffing off money. If he calls with far more hands than he bluffs with, you want to bet the river for value. Don’t overuse this play, they will start raising your blocking bets.
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#38 Downsides to the blocking bet.
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It is better against unaware opponents who wont understand what your doing. Vs tricky, aggressive players, use it with great caution. The main drawback is that you preempt bluffs on the river. Sophisticated players play aggro and bluff relatively frequently. To get the best of these player, your strategy must include checking and calling with some fairly strong hands to induce and pick off these bluffs. If you tend to use blocking bets with your medium strength hands, you give them way too much information to beat you with. Then they know if you make a blocking bet, they can save their bluff, or move you off with a raise. If you check, they know you will fold to a bet. Another downside is it makes all of your hands easier to read because by nature a blocking bet must be smaller than an average bet(or smaller than your opponent’s average bet). If you make a blocking bet often, the fact that you haven’t made one will give out info. Also they will see that you big bets are either bluffs or strong hands.
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#39 Defending against a blocking bet.
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Raise. Remember that these bets must be smaller than normal, and must be made out of position. Before the river, look for possible draws they might want to see cheaply. Some people are too greedy and make their blocking bets too small. BEFORE YOU ACT ON A BET, COMPARE ITS SIZE TO THE POT SIZE AND DETERMINE IF ITS UNUSUALLY LARGE OR UNUSUALLY SMALL. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO YOUR OPPONENT’S BETTING PATTERNS AND WATCH FOR FAKE BLOCKING BETS FROM EXCELLENT HANDS.
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#40- 10-20 game with 2000 stacks. A straightforward player opens in MP for 100. You call on the button with 7s-6s. Blinds fold. Pot is 230. Flop comes Kh-8h-4s. He bets 150.
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Call, planning to bluff a turn like 2h for about 400 into a 540 pot if he checks(the size of the bet depends on how likely you are to follow up with a river bluff if called). Don’t do it if the turn is Ac or he bet 600 instead of check. The flexibility is what makes it so strong. Combine these with slowplays or rope-a-dope’s to freeze your opponents out of position. The gutshot makes it even stronger. Some poor players will rarely check any good hand on the turn if they have bet the flop and were called. That’s an information leak tailored for call bluffs. Call the flop and fold if they bet or bet if they check.
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#41 Defending vs the call bluff.
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Sometimes check-raise the turn. Sometimes with good hands, sometimes with nothing. Mix up your flop play. Keep your opponents guessing.
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#42 OOP on the river when you think your opponent will bet with more hands than he will call with.
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Check raise because you will rarely get called. The only time it will get called is when you have underestimated the strength of your opponent’s hand, or if the check-raise arouses enough suspicion that he calls with medium strength hands he wouldn’t have called a bet with.
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#43 OOP on the river when you have a great hand and you think your opponent will both bet and call a check-raise, but not raise if you bet or call an original bet that is approximately the size of the check-raise.
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This rarely occurs because you need to be awfully sure he will bet and call the check-raise, and that he wouldn’t raise a smaller bet on your part. The most likely situation would be where the last card completed a flush, and you have the nut flush. There are a couple more reasons to check the river occaisionally with a good hand. You don’t want him to be sure that your checks indicate weakness. The other reason is to set up a future check-raise bluff.
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#44 Check-raise bluffs on the river.
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Should be tried once in a while against certain players in certain circumstances. The daring version is when you know he has a good hand but you think he is more likely to fold to a check-raise than a mere bet. This should be done very rarely and only vs players you think could fold. If you think he will bluff, you can do it more often. Sometimes when he will often have a decent but not bettable hand, and less often a busted draw, you don’t come out bluffing because you will be called when he has a decent hand, but when he bets after you check, you get renewed hope.
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#45 You are last to act and havea hand with some value. Should you check it, hoping to score a profit the old-fashioned way, or take a stab at the pot, risking a check-raise?
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Consider 1-The likelihood your bluff with succeed 2-The likelihood you will be check-raised off your hand 3-The value that your hand might have on the river if you miss 4-The likelihood that your draw will come in 5-The implied odds of making your hand. The factors are strongly interrelated, so it doesn’t make much sense to analyze them individually. Generally, if you have to fold to a check-raise, the more value your hand has, the less likely you should be to semi-bluff with it. The higher the value of your draw, the higher EV of checking. Some ways your draw has more value than normal-1) it has a lot of outs 2)The stacks are large 3)He is a “caller” 4)The draw is to the nuts
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#46 You have Jh-Tc with position on a single opponent. The pot is 100, you have 1000 left each. It’s the turn, and he has checked to you. Assuming your bluff is equally likely to succeed in either case, you should be more willing to semi-bluff if the board is Qh-9h-4s-9c, or Qh-9d-4s-6c?
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In the former hand, since a flush draw is on the board, the straight draw has more value, so checking has less value, and semi-bluffing is better. The main danger of semi-bluffing, getting check-raised off your draw, might not be a danger at all, you might actually gain if he already had a full house!
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#47 bluffing with mediocre hands
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only valuable vs thinking players who know that a big river bet is either a bluff or a strong hand, so they will discount your real holding, they may give too much weight to the chance you have a monster.
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#48 You have Kh-Qh on a Kc-7s-2h board. You make pot bets on the flop and turn(a blank)
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you should consider yourself a significant dog vs most opponents once they call on the turn. If he checks the river and you check behind, you usually will lose to AK or better. If you occasionally make a big bluff on the river, some players will lay down AK or two pair figuring you flopped a set. They would have had KQ as part of your range on the turn and flop, but would discount it after the river bet. Against weak-tight players prone to making ridiculous folds or thinking players unlikely to have a hand that beats your “obvious” monster, sometimes you can bluff. On the other hand, vs calling stations or on boards where your opponents might particularly suspect a bluff, you should often value bet “good” hands you would normally check.
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#49 Move in on the flop with a good draw?
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Moving in is better- The more outs you have, the more likely he is to fold, the more likely he is to make a big bet on the turn if you just call, the less likely he is to call if the card that makes your hand comes, when your stacks are no exorbitantly large. You must also sometimes make these bets with big hands on the flop.
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#50 You have 10h-8h on a board of Qs-Js-9h-8s-Jd. What is the zeroth level of thinking
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You have a straight, what hands you lose to or beat.
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#51 What is the first level of thinking
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What does he have? He made a big bet, so he has a good hand. Or his betting pattern was typical or a weak hand or bluff. These draw conclusions about your opponent’s holding without regard for what he is thinking, by looking at his actions in a vacuum.
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#52 What is the second level of thinking.
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Think about what he likely thinks you have. If you raised preflop, he is more likely to think you have AK than 10-7. So if you have AK, this is bad, if you have 10-7 this is good. If you bet the flop, but check behind on the turn, your opponent is likely to think you have a weak or marginal hand.
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#53 What is the third level of thinking
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How he assumes I might interpret his actions.
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#54 You are playing 5-10 vs a decent, but not excellent, player. He will think about what his opponents have, but not go deeper than that very often. He’s a first level thinker. You both have 2000(relatively deep) stacks. You open one off the button for 40 with 10h-9h. He calls in the big blind. Flop comes 10s-8s-5c. He checks, you bet 80, and he calls. Pot is 245. Turn is the Kd. He checks, you check. The river is the Kc. He thinks and bets 250. This is somewhat larger of a bet from him given his past play. What should you do? 0th level.
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I have a marginal hand, a pair of tens with a nine kicker.
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#55- Previous hand, first level
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He called preflop. He would do that with many hands, but not every hand. More likely to call with suited or connected hands or pocket pairs than with something like 10d-2s. He checked and called a pot-sized bet on a Ts-8s-5c flop. Calling a significant bet out of position probably means he caught a sizable chunk of the flop, perhaps a ten or a flush or straight draw or maybe something better. A turn king came, and he checked again, not surprising given his flop action. You checked. The river came another king, and he made a relatively big bet. With what hands would he likely make a big bet. Generally big bets mean big hands- trip kings or a full house, maybe. With a hand like Ah-Td, he might bet, but it would probably be a modest value/blocking bet. Big bets can also be bluffs, since they are less likely to be called than small ones, some players make their bluffs a little on the big side compared to their “normal bets”. So now what. We don’t really know what to do. He might have a big hands, he might be bluffing, we are getting 2-1 or so. You have to win 33 percent of the time.
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#56-previous hand, second level
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What might he think I have?- I opened preflop from late position, something I would do with a lot of hands, but tilted towards big hands. He’d expect to see aces more than 9-3 even though you would be dealt it twice as often. You bet the Ts-8s-5c flop when checked to. You might have hit the flop, or be making a continuation bluff. When I checked the Kd on the turn, he will assume I have a marginal or semi-weak hand. Perhaps a flush or straight draw or maybe a pair smaller than kings. Or maybe AQ or another hand that missed entirely. The Kc river doesn’t help any of these hands. So if you were weak on the turn, your still probably weak. It would be natural to assume that a first level thinker would put you on a modest holding. Given that knowledge, why would he make a large bet? He probably expects you to fold. IF he has a big hand himself, surely he’d rather you call 100 than fold to 250. And if he has a decent, but not great hand like Ah-5d, he’d probably either bet or make a modest value bet, as a big bet would rarely get better hands to fold and also rarely get called by a weaker hand. So the bigger than average bet here is likely to be a bluff. With big and mediocre hands alike, you would expect a smallish bet because he probably puts you on a modest hand. The big bet is designed to blow you out. Perhaps he called the flop with Qs-7s or 9c-7c and now has no chance to win by checking. He thinks you would call a 100 be, so he makes it big enough to scare you out. If these assumptions are right and he is a decent player and first level thinker, you have a clear call.
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#57 previous hand, third level
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If your assumptions are wrong, however, and he actually thinks on the third level, then he might realize you know he would put you on a modest hand due to your turn check. He would also know that sometimes you would check behind on the turn with a king or other hands you might call with on the river. With a big hand he might make an extra bet, knowing you would interpret it as weak in this situation.
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#58 Adjusting for loose players.
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Make sure you distinguish between loose bad players and loose aggressive players. Don’t play them as being loose players until you see them make at least one major error for a large bet. Maybe even wait for two mistakes if your not sure.
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#59 Adjustments for loose games and players- 1-play looser preflop
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when the loose opponent has entered already, especially when you have position and the stacks are deep. Play a lot of pots WHILE THE BETS ARE SMALL, in order to capitalize later when the bets are big. When you are on the button and a loose player limps, you can play all kinds of hands like 2c-2h, 9c-8s, Ts-7s, Ac-5h. The better you are after the flop, the more hands you can play. Sometimes raise the better ones for value as well, sometimes the weaker ones to balance. If the blinds are somewhat tough, raise a little more to isolate. Your goal is to see the flop fairly cheaply, and hope a profitable scenario arises after the flop. If he raises preflop, and he is raising a wide range of hands, you can call on the button with a wide range of hands.
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#60 Adjustments for loose players and games-Big preflop pots for big pairs.
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Be happy to get it all-in with QQ vs a weaker hand. But not vs tougher players. They usually wont call without at least KK. With AK vs a weaker player, just call in position and seeing if you flop a pair.
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#61 Adjustments for loose players and games-Value bet top pair.
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Vs tough players, you cant win a lot by value betting top pair. Say you flop tp, pot the flop, 2/3 pot the turn and get called, ½ pot on the river, if you didn’t improve, you aren’t winning very often, unless you have a reckless table image. But loose players will call you.
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#63 Characteristics of weak-tight players.
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1-Folds too often, especially to big turn and river bets. 2-Bets too much with mediocre hands 3-bets too much early in the hand with excellent hands 4-Bets too little on bluffs, and doesn’t follow with second barrel enough
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#64 How do weak tight players make mistakes according to the FTP?
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Folding the best hand in a small pot is not a big mistake. Folding the best hand in a big pot is a big mistake. So build a big pot. Raise the biggest amount pf that they are likely to call and that wont tie them to the pot. You want them to fold bottom and middle pair to a pot-sized bet on the flop. You want them to fold top pair and most draws to a follow up pot sized bet on the turn. Don’t raise so much pf that they will feel pot commited.
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#65 On the flop vs weak-tight players.
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You raised pf and now should be in position in a two or three handed pot. Now c-bet about ¾ the size of the pot. Why? 1, they evaluate hands by thinking about how much they can lose. They will make bigger mistakes with bigger bets. 2- A bigger bet will give you more info. They might call 20 with any flopped pair or reasonable draw, but call 40 only with top pair or a strong draw. They will give you too much information about their hands on the flop, so make a generous sized c-bet. If they call, do some hand reading to decide whether to follow up on fourth street.
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AhAs vs Kd-Kc
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81.25% to 18.75%, 4.5-1
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5h-5s vs Ac-Kc
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51.78 vs 48.22, basically even money
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5h-5s vs Ac-2s
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70.59 vs 29.41 2.5-1
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8c-8d vs 4h-3c
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84 vs 16. 5.5-1
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8c8d vs Ah8h
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70 vs 30 2.5-1
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8c-8d vs 8h-5c
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89 vs 11
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Ac-Ks vs Jh-9d
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64 vs 36. 9-5
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AcJs vs Kh-9h
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60 vs 40, 9-5
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AcTs vs KhQh
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56 vs 44 6-5
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AcKs vs AhQh
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75vs 25 3-1
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#66 Using your opponents pigeonholing tendencies against them
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Encourage them to stick a label on you, then surprise them at the right moment. 1-Use the randomness of the cards to shape your image. This works well against people you haven’t played against often. 2-
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17-River value betting concepts-
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1)If you are last to act and might be beaten, your bets should tend to be smaller than they would if you were fairly sure you had the best hand. 2)If you are last to act and worried about being check-raised as a bluff, you should check some hands you might otherwise bet for value against a more straightforward player. 3)If you are first to act, you should tend to bet an amount large enough to discourage your opponent from bluff-raising you, but not so large that you lose too much when you are beaten.
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#63 Adjustments for loose players and games-
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Bluff less often, but you still have to bluff sometimes or you will be too easy to read.
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