Om Chapter 4

Front 1

Forecasts that employ mathematical modeling to forecast demand

Back 1

Quantitative Forecasts

Front 2

Forecasts that incorporate such factors as the decision maker's intuition,emotion personal experiences and value system

Back 2

Qualitative Forecasts

Front 3

A forecasting technique that uses the opinion of a small group of high-level managers to form a group of estimate demand

Back 3

Jury of Executive Opinion

Front 4

A forecasting technique using a group process that allows experts to make forecasts

Back 4

Delphi Method

Front 5

A forecasting technique based on salespersons' estimates of expected sales

Back 5

Sales Force Composite

Front 6

A forecasting method that solicits input from customers or potential customers regarding future purchasing plans

Back 6

Consumer Market Survey

Front 7

A forecasting technique that uses a series of past data points to make a forecast

Back 7

Time Series

Front 8

A forecasting technique which assumes demand in the next period is equal to the demand in the most recent period

Back 8

Naive Approach

Front 9

A forecasting method that uses an average of the n most recent periods od data to forecast the next period

Back 9

Moving Averages

Front 10

A weighted-moving-average forecasting technique in which data points are weighted by an exponential function

Back 10

Exponential Smoothing

Front 11

The weighting factor used in an exponential smoothing forecast. A number between 0 and 1

Back 11

Smoothing Constant

Front 12

A measure of the overall forecast error for a model

Back 12

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Front 13

The average of the squared differences
between the forecasted and observed values

Back 13

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

Front 14

The average of the absolute differences between the forecast and actual values, expressed as a percent of actual values

Back 14

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)

Front 15

A time-series forecasting method that fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then projects the line into the future for forecasts

Back 15

Trend Projection

Front 16

Regular upward or downward movements in a time series that tie to recurring events

Back 16

Seasonal Variations

Front 17

Patterns in the data that occur every year or so

Back 17

Cycles

Front 18

A straight-line mathematical model to describe the functional relationships between independent and dependent variables

Back 18

Linear-regression Analysis

Front 19

A measure of variability around the regression line - its standard deviation

Back 19

Standard Error of the Estimate

Front 20

A measure of the strength of the relationship between two variables

Back 20

Coefficient of Correlation

Front 21

A measure of the amount of variation in the dependent variable about its mean that is explained by the regression equation

Back 21

Coefficient of Determination

Front 22

An associative forecasting method with more than one independent variable

Back 22

Multiple Regression

Front 23

A measurement of how well a forecast is predicting actual values

Back 23

Tracking Signal

Front 24

A forecast that is consistently higher or consistently lower than actual values of a time series

Back 24

Bias

Front 25

An approach to exponential smoothing forecasting in which the smoothing constant is automatically changed to keep errors to a minimum

Back 25

Adaptive Smoothing

Front 26

Forecasting that tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application

Back 26

Focus Forecasting