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26 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Time-series model
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models based on extrapolating the historical pattern for the variable of interest into the future
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Casual model
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estimate the value of the dependent variable on the basis of the independent variable
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Time series components
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Trend
Cyclic effects Seasonality Randomness |
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SMA (Simple Moving Average)
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Forecasts the value for the next period simply by estimating the height or level of horizontal line around which the actual values are randomly scattered
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SES (Simple exponential smoothing)
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A popular item series model for averaging when there is no seasonality by forecasting the value for next period simply by estimating the height of the horizontal line around which the actual values are randomly scattered
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MFE Mean Forecast Error
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a measure of forecast accuracy that gives the average error term.
important; reveals bias, not accuracy |
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MSE Mean Squared Error
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a measure of forecast accuracy which is analogous to a sample variance in basic statistics
important; when large errors are bad |
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MAD Mean Absolute Deviation
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a measure of forecast accuracy that tells about the average magnitude of error terms
important; compensating for the positive/negative error |
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MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error
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forecast accuracy
important; comparable across different time series |
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Additive seasonal index
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the expected difference between the value of a time series and the value, as called for by any trend and cyclic components
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Multiplicative seasonal index
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the expected ratio of the value of a time series in the period for which the index applies to the value as called for by any trend and cyclic components.
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Aggregate plan
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the ways in which existing resources will be used to meet expected levels of demand for product groups over the immediate range
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Rolling Planning Horizon
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A planning period whose beginning and endpoints slide forward with the passage of time
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Level Production Strategy
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A process where demand is met by altering only the inventory account
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Chase Demand Strategy
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The process where demand is met by matching planned monthly production with the forecasted demand, while the inventory account is held constant
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Peak Demand Strategy
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A situation where capacity is varied to meet the highest level of demand at particular times
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Forward Scheduling
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When customers are particularly time sensitive, the master scheduler will usually attempt to add the order as early as possible in hopes that it can be completed within a satisfactory period
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Backward Scheduling
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A process where companies determine when a stock of outputs will be needed, then place orders on the master schedule as to ensure the availability of outputs by that time.
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Independent demand inventory
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Inventory that is addressed by the master schedule is preferred because it is material that the firm produces for sale
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Dependent demand inventory
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the material that goes into the things the firm sells
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Reorder Point
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The product of the demand per day and the lead time in days
R=Ld |
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EOQ (Economic Order Quantity)
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The cost-minimizing order quantity, which is the amount that perfectly balances annual ordering costs and annual holding costs
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Takt Time
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The rate at which materials are used by the customer's value added system.
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Inside Exchange of Die
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Activities that can be done only when the machine is stopped (one examination room)
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Outside Exchange of Die
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Activities in which the next die is ready for use prior to the start of a setup (two examination rooms)
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Kanban System
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A pull schedule systems signaling that something needs to be done.
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