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78 Cards in this Set

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Maximax
(The Optimistic Gambler Approach)
This decision criterion is based upon the idea that we got at least our share of lucky or favorable breaks. This leads to an optimistic attitude to "go for it"

This procedure is to identify the best payoff in the entire payoff table and choose the alternative that corresponds to that payoff.
Maximin
(The Conservative or Pessimistic Approach)
This criterion assumes that we should always base our decisions on the validity of Murphy's Law.

The procedure is to determine the worst possible outcome for each alternative and choose the alternative that has the "best" of the worst possible outcomes.
Minimax Regret
(The Bad Loser Approach)
The procedure is to build a "regret matrix," determine the worst possible regret for each alternative, and choose the alternative that has the "best" of the worst regrets.
Laplace
The procedure is to calculate the average payoff for each alternative and choose the alternative with the highest average payoff.
Expected Value
The procedure is to compute the expected value of each alternative by summing the "weighted payoffs" for each alternative and select the alternative with the highest expected value. (The weighted payoffs are calculated by multiplying the payoff by the probability for the corresponding state of nature.)
Expected Value of Perfect Information
EVPI = Expected payoff under certainty - Expected payoff (of the best decision) under risk
Three Basic Decision Environments
-Uncertainty
Environment in which it is impossible to assess the probability of future events.
Three Basic Decision Environments
-Risk
Environment in which the probability of future events can be estimated.
Three Basic Decision Environments
-Certainty
Environment in which all relevant parameters have known values.
Inventory
A stock or store of goods
Objective of inventory control
To support the desired level of customer service while keeping inventory costs within reasonable limits.
Inventory Turnover
Ration of average cost of goods sold to average inventory investment.
Types of Demand:
Dependent Demand
Demand for items in inventory that are subassemblies or component parts to be used in the production of finished goods.
Types of Demand:
Independent Demand
Demand for items that are finished items.
Lead Time (LT)
Time interval between ordering and receiving the order
Inventory Costs:
Holding (Carrying) Cost
Cost to carry an item in inventory for a length of time, usually a year.
Inventory Costs:
Ordering Cost
Cost of ordering and receiving inventory.
Inventory Costs:
Shortage Cost
Cost resulting when demand exceeds the supply of inventory on hand; often unrealized profit per unit.
Inventory Costs:
Purchase Cost
The cost to actually purchase the inventory items. This cost is relevant in determining the order quantity only when the purchase cost is variable (because of considerations such as quantity discounts).
A-B-C Classification System
The classification of inventory items according to some measure of importance for the purpose of allocating control efforts accordingly.
Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)
The order size that minimizes total cost.
Quantity Discounts
Purchase price reductions for large orders.
Blanket Order
An agreement between buyer and seller, whereby the buyer agrees to buy a certain quantity of goods within a specified time period at a mutually agreeable price; and the goods are delivered as needed by the buyer.
Reorder Point (ROP)
When the quantity on hand of an item drops to this amount, the item is reordered.
Safety Stock (SS)
Stock that is held in excess of the expected demand due to variable demand rate and/or lead time.
Service Level (SL)
The probability of not running out of stock (i.e., demand will not exceed inventory supply) during the lead time.
Q
Order Quantity
D
Annual demand
S
Order cost per order
H
Annual carrying cost per unit
P
Purchase price per unit
d
Demand rate
_
d
Average demand rate
LT
Lead Time
σ
d
Standard deviation of demand rate
z
standard normal deviation
Total Cost =
Q/2 * H + D/Q * S
Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) =
√((2 * D *S)/H)
Total Cost (only when there are quantity discounts) =
Q/2 * H + D/Q * S + P * D
Reorder Point (when constant demand and constant lead time) =
ROP = d * LT
Reorder Point (when variable demand and constant lead time) =
_
ROP = d * LT + z√LTσ
d
In many process:
Less than 1% of the total time is spent on value-added activites.
In many process:
It is possible to take up 75% of the time out of the process.
In most companies:
People are 99% busy
In most companies:
Items are 99% idle
In a value-added flow analysis, a step adds value to an item if:
1. If the customer cares about it (recognizes that it is important)
2. If the item physically changes.
3. If it is done right the first time.
In most processes, only about 10-15% of the steps add value.
As non-value added steps are removed from the process:
Lead time decrease
As non-value steps are removed from the process:
Problems become more evident and easier to track.
As you remove steps from a process, you get a clearer view of the customer. It is easier to:
Deliver faster to the customer.
As you remove steps from a process, you get a clearer view of the customer. It is easier to:
Design products and services to better fit customer needs.
As you remove steps from a process, you get a clearer view of the customer. It is easier to:
Improve Quality.
As you remove steps from a process, you get a clearer view of the customer. It is easier to:
Spend less time doing unnecessary tasks.
As you remove steps from a process, you get a clearer view of the customer. It is easier to:
Get new products to market faster.
As you remove steps from a process, you get a clearer view of the customer. It is easier to:
Add value in ways that you never thought of.
We need to spend more time on the steps that customers really care about!
The "goal" is to make money and anything that brings us closer to it is productive and anything that doesn’t isn’t.
Three terms that will help him run his plant, throughput, inventory, and operational expense.
Throughput is the rate at which the system generates money through sales.
Inventory is all the money that the system has invested in purchasing things which it intends to sell.
Operational expense is all the money the system spends in order to turn inventory into throughput.
Throughput is money coming in.
Inventory is the money currently inside the system.
And operational expense is the money we have to pay out to make throughput happen
Alex discovers the importance of "dependent events" in relation to "statistical fluctuations". Through the analogy between a single file hike through the wilderness and a manufacturing plant, Alex sees that there are normally limits to making up the downside of the fluctuations with the following "dependent events". Even if there were no limits, the last event must make up for all the others for all of them to average out.
Finally, through the dice game or match bowl experiment, it becomes clear that with a balanced plant and because of "statistical fluctuations" and "dependent events" throughput goes down and inventory along with operating expenses goes up.
A bottleneck is any resource whose capacity is equal to or less than the demand placed upon it.
A non-bottleneck is any resource whose capacity is greater than the demand placed on it.
The Effect-Cause-Effect method is the process of speculating a cause for a given effect (hypothesis) and then predicting other effects from the same cause. Verifying each predicted effect builds a logical tree and provides a powerful way to determine core problems.
The Socratic method is discussed as a way to overcome resistance to change. Using this approach involves asking questions that help a person invent their own solutions.
Operations Management
The management of systems or processes that create goods and/or provide services
Craft Production
System in which highly skilled workers use simple, flexible tools to produce small quantities of customized goods.
Mass Production
System in which low-skilled workers use specialized machinery to produce high volumes of standardized goods.
Interchangeable parts
Parts of a product made to such precision that they do not have to be custom fitted.
Division of Labor
The breaking up of a production process into small tasks, so that each worker performs a small portion of the overall job.
E-business
Use of the Internet to transact business.
E-commerce
Consumer-to-Business transactions.
Supply Chain
A sequence of activities and organizations involved in producing and delivering a good or service.
Outsourcing
Obtaining a product or service from outside the organization.
Agility
The ability of an organization to respond quickly to demands or opportunities.
Six Sigma
A process for reducing costs, improving quality, and increasing customer satisfaction.
Lean production
System that uses minimal amounts of resources to produce a high volume of high-quality goods with some variety.
Strategies
Plans for achieving organizational goals.
Mission
The reason for the existence of an organization.
Mission statement
States the purpose of an organization.
Goals
Provide detail and scope of the mission.
Distinctive competencies
The special attributes or abilities that give an organization a competitive edge.
Quality-based Strategy
Strategy that focuses on quality in all phases of an organization.
Time-based strategy
Strategy that focuses on reduction of time needed to accomplish tasks.
Productivity =
Output/Input
Productivity Growth =
((Current prod - Previous prod.)/Previous productivity) x 100%
Multifactor Productivity =
Output/(Labor + Materials + Overhead)