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179 Cards in this Set
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Nominal GDP
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Total Market Value of all final goods and services produced during the period in the US.
-Determined Quarterly and stated as an annualized rate -Annual rate is an average the 4 quarterly values |
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2 Basic Ways of Measuring Nominal GDP
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1. Product Accounts Approach/Expenditure Approach
2. Income Accounts Approach |
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Expenditure Approach/Expenditure Approach
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Measure the spending on final good and services, along with required adjustments
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Income Accounts Approach
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Determine the income or payments to the various factors supplying final goods and services, along with additional charges that must be included.
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Product Accounts GDP Formula
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Personal Consumption + Gross Private Domestic INvestment + Gov. Purchases + Net Exports
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Major Limitations of GDP as a measure of Output
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1. Non-market Production
2. Underground Economy 3. Leisure and Human Costs 4. Quality Improvements and New Products 5. Harmful Side Effects |
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Non-Market Production (GDP Limitation)
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fails to account household production because the household production does not involve market transaction
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Underground Economy (GDP Limitation)
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fails to count the underground economy, which involves concealed economic activities
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Leisure and Human Costs (GDP Limitation)
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Attempts to recognize the value of quality improvements but this is difficult to do.
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Also attempts to recognize the value of new products, but also difficult to do
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Harmful Side Effects (GDP Limitation)
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No adjustment for natural events
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Gross Private Domestic Investment
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Residential Investment + Non-Residential Structures + Producers' durable equipment + change in business inventories
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Government Purchases
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Federal Defense Purchases + Federal non-defense purchases + Sate/Local purchases
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Net Exports
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exports - imports
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Real GDP
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expressed in terms of base year (Currently 2005) dollars.
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Allows year to year comparison of real output.
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GDP Implicit Price Deflator
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Price Index representing the overall level of prices for the goods and services.
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Nominal GDP/Real GDP * 100
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Approx Relationship
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Nominal Growth Rate=Real Growth Rate + Implicit Price Deflator Growth Rate (inflation)
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Income Accounts Approach
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GDP=Employee Compensation + proprietor & Rental Income + Pretax Corporate Profits + Net Interest and Miscel Payment + Miscel
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Gross Savings
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Personal Savings + Gross Business Savings + Government Savings
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Short-Run Aggregate Demand (SAD)
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download sloping due to the Wealth Effect.
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Wealth Effect
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less real money, the higher the current price level. Less real money results in lower current demand
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Substitution Effect
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Substitution of future consumption for current demand the higher the price level (due to wealth effect)
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Greater substitution of foreign goods for current domestic goods, the higher the current domestic price level
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Short Run Aggregate Supply (SAS)
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upward sloping since the quantity supplied is assumed positively related to price
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Real GDP: Actual vs Potential
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Actual > Potential == Inflationary Gap
Potential> Actual == Recessionary Gap |
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Shift vs Movement Along
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Shift: movement of the entire curve left/right
Movement Along: involves a change in the independent variable only, with all other input variables remaining constant |
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Long Run Aggregate Demand (LAD)
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downward sloping; demand is inversely related to the price level.
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Long Run Aggregate Supply (LAS)
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is vertical at potential GDP/Full Employment GDP
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Ex Post (after)
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gross investment=gross saving
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Ex Ante (before)
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gross investment != gross savings
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Keynesian Economics
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Government may undertake counter cyclical expansionary fiscal polity to try to stimulate the economy
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Keynesian economists believe that the economy on its own would rarely operate at full employment, thus government intervention is needed to achieve and maintain full employment.
Keynesian Economics - an activist strategy. |
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Automatic Policy Actions
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1. Needs tested spending:
(a). Changes in Unemployment Insurance (b). Other govt. transfer programs, Welfare. 2. Induced taxes: (a). Changes in personal and corporate income tax collections. |
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Change in Income & Output (Keynesian Economics)
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Chg in Income & Output = Chg in Govt Exp or Private Invest * Keynesian Expenditure Multiplier
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Keynesian Tax Model, or Autonomous Tax Multiplier
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Change in Income & Output = -(Change in Taxes) * (Keynesian Tax Multplier)
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Balanced Budget Multiplier
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If Budget is balanced & increase in government expenditures & similar increase in tax revenues
Aggregate demand increases. Keynesian expenditure multiplier > Keynesian tax multiplier |
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Keynesian Expenditure Multiplier
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4x
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Keynesian Tax Multiplier
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3x
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Balance Budget multiplier
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Net stimulative effect on economy
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Problems with Keynesian Economics
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1. Timing is difficult
2. Appropriate Fiscal Policy Level is uncertain 3. Crowding Out of the private sector |
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Crowding Out Effect
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is any reduction in private consumption or investment that occurs because of an increase in government spending
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Ricardo-Barro Effect
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Is the equivalence of financing government purchases by taxes or by borrowing.
Higher private savings due to higher real interest rates will compensate for likely higher future income taxes to pay for the current budget deficit. |
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Modern Viewpoint about Discretionary Fiscal Policy
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Can stimulate the economy in a recession.
But may result in higher real interest rates in normal times. Lots of difficulties with proper timing. |
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Generational Effects of Fiscal Policy
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Generational Imbalance: the fiscal imbalance between current and future generations.
Major source of the generational imbalance in the U.S. is Medicare. |
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Price Level
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Price level is the average level of prices as measured by a price index.
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Inflation
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Inflation is an ongoing process of the price level rising continuously
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Causes of Inflation
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-Demand-Pull
-Cost-Push -Excessive Money Supply Growth -Inertial Inflation – people’s expectations about inflation. |
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Effects of Anticipated High Inflation
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1. Reduced Saving and Investment
2. Hoarding resources 3. Tax effects: Inflation-adjusted after-tax rate-of-return is low even though nominal interest rate is high. Result: reduced incentive to save, so investment is reduced → GDP drops. |
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Anticipated Inflation Rate
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Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest Rate + Anticipated Inflation Rate
Note: Real interest rate is determined in the financial capital market by the investment demand for funds and supply of funds |
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Unanticipated Inflation (Labor Market Effect)
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- Redistribution of Income
- Departures from Full Employment |
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Unanticipated Inflation (Financial Capital Markets)
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-Redistribution of Income
-Too Much or Too Little Lending or Borrowing |
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
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-Monthly sample of prices for a market basket.
-CPI Tends to Overstate Inflation: -Substitution Bias -Sale Bias -Quality Bias -New Goods Bias |
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Employment Classifications
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-Employed
-Unemployed -Civilian Labor Force -Not in labor Force |
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Frictional Unemployment
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moving between jobs, reentering the job market, or looking for first job
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Structural Unemployment
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job skills not in demand in the current economy
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Cyclical Unemployment
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out of work due to a downturn in the economy
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Natural Rate of Unemployment
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the lowest rate of unemployment that can be sustained without an acceleration in the inflation rate
The Natural Rate of Unemployment = Frictional + Structural Unemployment -Currently believed to be around 4% |
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Short-Term Phillips Curve
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a downward sloping curve representing the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment
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Long-Term Phillips Curve
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vertical at the natural rate of unemployment, or any inflation rate is possible at the natural rate of unemployment
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Wage Illusion
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-If actual wage inflation greater than anticipated, unemployment temporarily decreases since firms hire more workers at the lower real wage rate.
-But soon workers catch on and demand higher real wages, then unemployment increases. |
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Functions of Money
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Medium of Exchange
Unit of Account Store of Value |
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Demand for Money Balances
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-Real GDP --> Positive
-Nominal Interest Rate --> Inverse -Price Level-->Positive -Financial Innovation-->Inverse |
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U.S. Banking System
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-Large and decentralized
-Federal Reserve: 10% legal reserve requirement |
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Sources of Funds for Banks
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-Fed Funds from another bank
-Discount window from the Fed. |
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Economic Functions of Banks
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1.) Creating Liquidity, but limited by a bank’s excess reserves.
2.) Minimizing the Cost of Obtaining Funds 3.) Minimizing the Cost of Monitoring Borrowers 4.) Pooling Risk |
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Deposit Expansion Multiplier
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Potential Money Supply Multiplier = 1/RR
-But leakages may reduce this expansion. |
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Monetary Aggregates
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M1, M2, M3
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M1 (Monetary Aggregate)
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currency outside of banks, checking account balances, coins, and travelers checks. (M1 excludes currency and checking deposits owned by the U.S. Government.)
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M2 (Monetary Aggregate)
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M1 + savings accounts, money market accounts, & small CDs
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M3
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M3 = M2 + business accounts, jumbos, and institution-only money market funds
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Check
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It is not money. It merely transfers money from one account to another. Overall money supply does not change.
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Credit Card
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represents the promise to pay later to another account, also not changing overall money supply
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Problems with Money Definitions
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Movement of funds from checking accounts (M1) into money market funds (M2).
Widespread use of the dollar outside the U.S. |
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Fed Assets (Balance Sheet)
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- Gold & Forex
- US Govt Securities - Loans to Banks |
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Fed Liabilities (Balance Sheet)
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-Federal Reserve Notes
-Bank Deposits -Other Assets (net) |
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Fed’s Monetary Base
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Federal Reserve Notes + Banks’ Deposits
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Fed Policy Instruments
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1.) FOMC: purchase T-Bills to expand, and sell T-Bills to contract
2.) Discount Rate Change 3.) Reserve requirement for member banks 4.) Margin requirements for stock purchases |
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Key Functions of a Central Bank
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-Set monetary policy
-Determine how the economy behaves -Respond to economic and market conditions -Control money supply -Regulate the banking system -Issue currency (In the U.S. the Treasury Dept. prints currency while the Fed puts it into circulation.) |
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Central Bank Role
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Controls SHORT-TERM interest rates, not long-term rates.
Enables Liquidity in the banking systems by determining current borrow rates. This in term effects long term borrow rates. |
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Inflation Targeting
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maintain price level stability
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Initial Impact of Increase in the Money Supply
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1.) Increase in real GDP and employment.
2.) Decrease in nominal interest rate and real interest rate. 3.) No change in inflation. |
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Fed Monetary Policy Goals
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1.) Maintain Price Level Stability
2.) Keep real GDP close to full employment real GDP (potential GDP) 3.) Keep interest rates moderate |
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Price Level Stability v.s. Sustainable Real GDP Growth
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- inflation does not figure in people’s
- economic calculations (0% to 3%) -people are willing to save and invest (rather than consume their earnings) |
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Types of Fed Monetary Strategies
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1.) Instrument Rule
2.) Targeting Rule |
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Instrument Rule
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set the selected monetary policy instrument to a level based on the state of the economy
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Targeting Rule
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set the selected monetary policy instrument to a level that makes the forecast of the policy goal equal to its target
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Taylor Rule
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Fed Funds RateTarget = f ( forecast inflation and real GDP gap)
2% target inflation and real interest rate assumed. |
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Timing Effects of Fed Policy Changes
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- Fed funds rate transmission involves normal ripple effects over 1 to 2 years.
-Time lags are unpredictable and can be longer or shorter |
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McCallum Rule
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A monetary base instrument rule that specifies the appropriate growth of the monetary base
(assumes the demand for money and the monetary base is quite stable, not so) |
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Money Targeting Rule
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target growth of the money supply
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Exchange Rate Targeting Rules
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target the exchange rate vs. a basket of currencies
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Inflation Rate Targeting Rule
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target the inflation rate
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Classical Economics
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Little or no govt. intervention, let supply and demand forces operate.
Adam Smith: Invisible Hand Macroeconomic policy is largely ineffective. Money wage rates are NOT sticky downward |
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New Classical Economics
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Govt. spending to stimulate the economy will not be successful because higher spending will have to be financed by borrowing and/or future tax increases that will cool down the economy
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Keynesian Economics Objectives
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Government should undertake countercyclical expansionary fiscal policy to try to stimulate the economy.
Money wage rates are assumed to be sticky downwards. utilize discretionary monetary policy instead of fiscal policy. |
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Monetarist Policy Objectives
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Avoid trying to “fine tune” the economy. Rather, steady money supply growth.
Problem: movement of funds among monetary aggregates |
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Supply Side Objectives
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Govt. should consider the supply side, as well as the demand side.
Key point: lower marginal income tax rates to stimulate the economy. |
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Laffer Curve
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Shows the relationship between the country’s overall tax rate and the amount of tax revenues collected.
-Increases in tax rates may result in less tax revenue collected |
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Business Cycle Theories
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1.) Mainstream
2.) Real |
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Mainstream (Business Cycle Theory)
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occur because of fluctuations of real GDP around potential GDP
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Real (Business Cycle Theory)
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business cycles occur due to changes in productivity, resulting from the pace of technological change
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Factors which Encourage Gross Investment
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High Production Capacity
Optimistic Business Outlook Low Interest Rates |
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Impact of Government Savings on Investment Financing
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Greater Savings, Greater Investment Financing
Less Savings, Less Investment Financing |
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GDP Formula (Definition By Parkin)
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=C + S + T
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where:
C=Personal Consumption Expenditures, S=Private Domestic Savings, T=Net Taxes |
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Factors that Shift Aggregate Demand Curve
(Increase Demand) |
Real Income Higher
Real Interest Rates Lower Economic Outlook More optimistic Expected Inflation Higher Currency Weaker |
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Factors that Shift Aggregate Supply Curve
(Increase Supply) |
Supply of Labor ==> Increased
Supply of Capital ==> Increased Productivity ==> Higher Expected Inflation ==> Lower |
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When Gross Investment > Gross Savings
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Inventories will begin to fall and business firms will replenish inventories and therefore increase production
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When Gross Savings > Gross Investment
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Inventories increase above desired levels, resulting in decreased orders. Production Decreases
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Planned Aggregate Demand (Keynesian Economics)
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C+I+G+NX
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where:
C=Consumption Expenditures I=Investment Expenditures G=planned Government Expenditures NX=Planned Net Exports |
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The Multiplier Principle in Keynesian Economics is important because
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Shows why small shifts in investment have a powerful influence on national income
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GDP Implicit Price Deflator
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Most Comprehensive Price Index
Determined Quaterly Not a fixed market basket but mix of each period. More relavent to recent measurement but not historical |
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Producer Price Index
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measure prices changed by producers
determined monthly |
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Cost-Push Inflation
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decrease in short-run aggregate supply because of increase in costs
Due to increase in wages or cost of raw materials |
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Demand-Pull Inflation
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increase in short-run aggregate demand when the economy is already at full employment
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Excessive Money Supply Growth Inflation
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money supply growing at a much faster rate than the economy
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Inertial Inflation
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people's expectations to adapting to recent levels of inflation
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Nominal Interest Rate (Formula)
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Real Interest Rate + Anticipated Inflation Rate
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If Actual Inflation Rate > Anticipated Inflation Rate
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Lenders Lose and
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CPI Formula (Monthly Value)
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[Fixed Benchmark Basked Cost (Mont)/Fixed Benchmark Basked Cost in Period] * CPI Value in Base Period
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CPI Overstatement of Inflation
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Substitution Bias
Sale Bias Quality Bias New Goods Bias |
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Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate
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Civilian Labor Force/Civilians over Age 16 (Non-institutional)
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Best indicator of the willingness of people who are working to take jobs
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Civilian Employment Rate
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Civilian Employment/Civilians over Age 16 (Non-institutional)
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Unemployment Rate
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Unemployed/Civilian Labor Force
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Assets on Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
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Gold and Foreign Exchange
U.S. Government Securities Loans to Banks |
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Liabilities on Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
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Federal Reserve Notes & Coins
Banks' Deposits Other Assets (net) |
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Monetary Base
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Federal Reserve Notes & Coins + Banks' Deposits
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Affect of Fed purchasing of Treasury Security
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Monetary Base will be increased
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(by a multiple of the corresponding money supply multiplier)
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Keynesian Cycle Theory
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fluctuations in business confidence are the main source of fluctuations in aggregate demand.
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Money Wage rate is assume to be rigid
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Monetarist Cycle Theory
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fluctuations in both investment and consumption expenditure, driven by fluctuations in growth rate of the quantity of money, are main sources of fluctuations in aggregate demand
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Money Wage rate is assume to be rigid
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New Classical Cycle Theory
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rational expectations of the price level determine the money wage rate and position of the short-run aggregate supply curve
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It is assume that only unexpected fluctuations in aggregate demand bring fluctuations in real GDP around potential GDP
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New Keynesian Cycle Theory
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today's money wage rate were negotiated by many past dates, which means that past rational expectations of the current price level influence the money wage rate and the position of the short-run aggregate supply curve
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Real Business Cycle Theory
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Business Cycles occur because of fluctuations in Productivity.
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Fluctuations are due to changes in:
Technology International disturbances natural disasters climate fluctuations. |
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What are Expansionary open-market operations are for the Fed
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-Buy Treasury Bills
-Buy Treasury Bonds -Lower Fed Discount Rate -Lower Reserve Requirements |
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Supply of Money in the US depends mainly on?
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Actions of the Fed
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Short-Run Demand for Real Funds is?
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An inverse Function of Interest rates
-Corresponds to a Downward sloping demand curve for real funds |
(nominal interest rate vs Amount of real funds)
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Short-Run Supply of real funds is
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FIXED since the short-run supply curve for real funds is VERTICAL
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Short-run demand curve for real funds will shift:
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To the RIGHT if there is an increase in real GDP
To the LEFT if there a decrease in real GDP Generally to the LEFT if there is a new financial innovation. |
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Increase in the Short-Run Demand for Real-Funds
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results in an INCREASE in the equilibrium short-run interest rate
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a DECREASE in the short-run interest rate results in a Decrease in Short-Run Demand for Real Funds
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Assumption in the Classical Quantity Theory Of Money
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In the short-run, the ratio of V/Q remains constant for the equation PQ=MV.
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Increase in Money Supply (Classical Quantity Theory of Money) Results in
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Increase in Price Level
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Assumption in Modern Monetarist Viewpoint
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In the short run, Price (P) and Velocity (V) REMAIN CONSTANT in the equation PQ=MV
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Tax Effect with Inflation
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Higher Tax Rate leads to HIGHER effective tax rate on Income from Capital
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Unanticipated Inflation Effect on the Labor Markets
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Redistribution of Income
Departures from Full Employment **Employers Gain and Employees Lose** |
If Actual Inflation Rate > Anticipated Inflation Rate
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Unanticipated Inflation Effect on the Capital Markets
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Redistribution of Income
Too much or Too Little Lending or Borrowing **Lenders lose and Borrowers Gain** |
If Actual Inflation Rate > Anticipated Inflation Rate
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Stagflation
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Substantial Inflation with declining or slow growth
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Galloping Inflation
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High double-digit or triple-digit inflation rate.
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Hyperinflation
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Extremely high rate of inflation, such as several thousand percent
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Disinflation
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Rate of inflation is decreasing
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Deflation
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Decrease in general Level of prices of goods and services
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Nominal Interest Rate (Adjusted for Anticipated Inflation)
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Real Interest Rate + Anticipated Inflation Rate
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Long Term Effects of Expansionary Monetary Policy (in terms of Inflation)
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Short term, inflation should be UNAFFECTED
Long-Term, inflation should GO UP. |
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Long Term Effects of Expansionary Monetary Policy (in terms of Real GDP)
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In the Short-Term, Real GDP should GO UP.
In the Long-Term, Real GDP should Be Unaffected |
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Long Term Effects of Expansionary Monetary Policy (in terms of Employment)
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In the Short-Term, Employment should GO UP.
In the Long-Term, Employment should Be Unaffected |
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Long Term Effects of Expansionary Monetary Policy (in terms of Real Interest Rates)
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In the Short-Term, Real Interest Rates should GO DOWN.
In the Long-Term, Real Interest Rates should Be Unaffected |
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CPI Inflation Formula
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[CPI(Y2)-CPI(Y1)]/CPI(Y1)
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Initial impact of an increase in short-run aggregate demand when the economy is already at a full
employment |
Real GDP level is a temporary INCREASE in output ABOVE the full employment real GDP level and a corresponding INCREASE in the overall price level
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With high anticipated inflation, people and firms will tend to???
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spend any funds they receive
right away, which will considerably reduce savings and investment, so this diverts resources away from producing goods and services. |
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Phillips Curve depicts the relationship between??
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The rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment.
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The current consensus among economists is that the short-term Phillips Curve has what shape?
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Inflation is a downward sloping function of the unemployment rate.
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If Actual Inflation Rate > Anticipated Rate, what is the effect on the short-term Phillips Curve
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The Phillips Curve will shift UPWARD in the short-term
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Incentive to work with High Marginal Tax Rates
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Rates WEAKEN the incentive to work and DECREASE employment and the Full Employment Real GDP (Potential GDP)
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Interest Rates with High Marginal Tax Rates
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WEAKEN the incentive to save/invest which LOWERS the growth rate of real GDP
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Laffer Curve shows the relationship between what?
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a country's overall Tax Rate and Tax Revenue Collected
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An increase in the overall tax rate in the United States would result in??
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MORE Tax Revenues per dollar earned
LESS work provided and therefore LESS dollars earned |
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Factors that generally encourage greater private savings include???
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(1) Higher real income
(2) More pessimistic outlook for economy |
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Factors that generally encourage greater private savings also include:
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(1) Lower tax rates;
(2) Higher interest rates; and (3) Lower inflation expectations. |
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crowding-out viewpoint
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argue that budget deficits INCREASES real interest rates.
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Crowding-out effect due to government discretionary expansionary counter-cyclical fiscal policy
should |
should be DECREASED to some extent by an INCREASE in private savings, because of the HIGHER real interest rate due to the government fiscal policy
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What is the effect if Private Savings remains the same and Government Savings are Positive
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there is a budget SURPLUS which results in INCREASED investment Financing
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Fiscal imbalance for the government is defined as?
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B - Tax Revenues
and B > Tax Revenues where: B - the present value of the government's commitments to pay benefits |
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What Effect does having gross investment > gross savings
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aggregate demand > aggregate supply
this tends to stimulate the economy |
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What is not a Stated Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve
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Minimizing unemployment rate
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Price Level Stability Definition
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defined as a condition in which the inflation rate does not figure in people's
economic calculations. Viewed currently at 2% |
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Federal Reserve Affect on Money Aggregate (M1,M2)
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Can only INDIRECTLY affect money aggregates M1 and M2 with ti's monetary policy instruments
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How does the Fed change the Fed Funds rate if the Fed has strong Recession Concerns
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lowers the Fed Funds rate
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How does the Fed change the Fed Funds rate if the Fed has strong Inflation Concerns
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the Fed raises Fed funds rate.
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What is the ripple effect if Fed lowers the Fed funds rate?
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(1) Quantity of money and supply of loanable funds increases
(2) Aggregate demand increases (3) Real GDP growth increases (4) inflation rate increases. |
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What is the ripple effect if Fed increases the Fed funds rate?
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Quantity of money and supply of loanable funds decreases;
(2) Aggregate demand decreases; (3) Real GDP growth decreases; (4.) Inflation rate decreases. |
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Timing Effect of changes in money and bank loans if Fed Fund Rate Changes
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usually in a few weeks
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Timing Effect of Inflation if Fed Fund Rate Changes
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Usually takes about 1-2 years
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McCallum Rule
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assumes the demand for money and demand for monetary base are
reasonably stable, which is unrealistic. |
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K-Percent Rule
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assumes the demand for money is stable and predictable, which is
unrealistic. |
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