Learning And Memory, Ch. 12

Front 1

Judgement and decision making

Back 1

Used to select from among choices or to evaluate opportunities.

Front 2

Goal of decision making

Back 2

Choose from among options

Evaluate opportunities

Front 3

Economic of man and woman

Back 3

Assumes that all decision makers are:
Fully informed
Infinitely sensitive
Fully rational

Front 4

Subjective expected utility theory

Back 4

The goal of human action is to seek pleasure and avoid pain.

Front 5

Subjective utility

Back 5

A calculation based on the individual's judged weightings of utility rather than on objective criteria.

Front 6

Subjective probability

Back 6

A calculation based on the individual's estimates of likelihood rather than on objective statistical computations.

Front 7

Heuristics

Back 7

Mental shortcuts that lighten the cognitive load of making decision.

Front 8

Satisficing

Back 8

Consider options one by one and then select an option as soon as we find one that is satisfactory. Ex. "Buying a car -- get first acceptable one that comes along."

Front 9

Bounded rationality

Back 9

We are rational but within limit

Front 10

Elimination by aspects

Back 10

We eliminate alternatives by focusing on aspects of each alternative, one at a time. Ex. "Which college to attend."

Front 11

Representativeness heuristic

Back 11

Judging the likelihood of an outcome based on how similar it is to a prototype or by how closely it reflects the important features of the process that generates it. Ex. "Flipping a coin. Most people will judge HHHHTH higher than HTHHTH. You expect the sequence to look random.

Front 12

Base rate

Back 12

The prevalence of an even or characteristic within its population of events or characteristics. Ex. "Chest pain in 10yr boy. The doctor is less likely to think heat attack than if the chest pain was in 60yr man."

Front 13

Availability heuristic

Back 13

We make judgements on the basis of how easily we can call to mind what we perceive as relevant instances of a phenomenon. Ex. "More words that begin with letter R than those that have R as third letter. Most people say begin with because it's easier to think of words that start with R."

Front 14

Anchoring

Back 14

People adjust their evaluations of things by means of certain reference points called end anchors.

Front 15

Framing

Back 15

The way options are presented influences which option you will select. Ex. "We avoid risk when we face potential gains"

Front 16

Illusory Correlation

Back 16

We see certain events or attributes as related, even though they are not. Ex. "Expect political party to show certain morals. We might see a correlation between the party and people who show those characteristics."

Front 17

Overconfidence

Back 17

Overvaluing one’s skills, knowledge, or judgment. Ex. "Is absinthe a liquor or stone. People over estimate the accuracy."

Front 18

Hindsight bias

Back 18

Seeing all the precursors leading to a particular outcome and thinking that those signs were obvious beforehand, when they actually were not. Ex. "People asked to predict outcomes, they cannot. But when told the outcomes, they say the outcome were obvious. Relationship problems you don't notice until it's too late, but then realize it."

Front 19

Sunk-Cost Fallacy

Back 19

Decision to continue to invest in something because you have invested in it before and you hope to recover your investment. Ex. "Buy a lemon car. Spend thousands of dollars to fix. Another repair comes and you spend the money to fix it instead of getting a new car."

Front 20

Gambler's fallacy

Back 20

Believe the probability of a given random event is influenced by previous random events. Ex. "Gambler's lost five times believe that a win is likely the sixth time."

Front 21

Conjunction fallacy

Back 21

Give a higher estimate for a subset of events than for the larger set of events containing the subset. Ex. "Biology teachers believe in evolution."

Front 22

Take the Best

Back 22

Identify the most important criterion to you for making a decision and make your choice based on that criterion. Ex. "Buy a car and the most important factor may be gas mileage, safety, or appearance. You make your choice on the basis of that attribute."

Front 23

Opportunity cost

Back 23

Prices paid for availing oneself of certain opportunities.

Front 24

Groups that are successful in decision making

Back 24

Are small
Have open communication
Have members who share a common mind set
Have members who identify with the group
Have members who agree on acceptable group behavior

Front 25

Groupthink

Back 25

Involves premature decision making that is generally a result of group members attempting to avoid conflict. Ex. "Destroy a statue. One person thinks its not the best idea, but other make him feel cowardly. They don't realize they are out of line."

Front 26

Groupthink conditions

Back 26

Isolated, cohesive, and homogeneous group
No objective and impartial leadership
High levels of stress surrounding the decision process

Front 27

Groupthink antidotes

Back 27

Leader should encourage constructive criticism
Leader should be impartial
Members should seek input from people outside the group
Subgroups should meet separately to consider alternatives

Front 28

Deductive reasoning

Back 28

Process of reasoning from one or more general statements regarding what is known to reach a logically certain conclusion.

Front 29

Proposition

Back 29

An assertion, which may be either true or false. Ex. "Cognitive psychology students are brilliant."

Front 30

Premise

Back 30

Propositions about which arguments are made.

Front 31

Conditional reasoning

Back 31

The reasoner must draw a conclusion based on a n if then proposition. Ex. "If p is met, then q follows. If student studies hard, they they score high score on exams."

Front 32

Deductive validity

Back 32

Logical soundness of reasoning.

Front 33

Modus ponens

Back 33

If p, then q. P. Therefore q. Ex. "If you are a husband, then you are married. Harrison is a husband. Therefore he is married.

Front 34

Modus tollens

Back 34

If p, then q, Not q. Therefore not p. Ex. "If you are a husband, then you are married. Harrison is not married. Therefore, he is not a husband."

Front 35

Syllogistic

Back 35

Deductive arguments that involve drawing conclusions from two premises.

Front 36

Categorical syllogisms

Back 36

Premises state something about the category membership of the terms
Can use circle diagrams to illustrate class membership

Front 37

Overextension

Back 37

We overextend the use of strategies that work in some syllogisms to syllogisms in which the strategies fail for us.

Front 38

Confirmation bias

Back 38

Seek confirmation rather than disconfirmation of what we already believe. Ex. "Doctor may consider patient has condition X without considering all alternatives.

Front 39

Inductive reasoning

Back 39

The process of reasoning from specific facts or observations to reach a likely conclusion that may explain the facts. Ex. "You notice all people enrolled in psychology are on the dean's list. You could reason that inductively all students who enroll in psychology are excellent students."