Gov 310L Test 3 Review

Front 1

The Day Before

1) Projections
2) Predictions

Back 1

??

Front 2

The Day After

1) What Happened?

Back 2

??

Front 3

The Polarization of Politics

1) Red vs. Blue America

Back 3

1) Red States- Blue Collar, factories closed, left behind. Largely white and Christian. Few college graduates. Make less than average.
Blue States- Like education. Very expensive to live there. Wealthy people.
Infers that America is divided.

Front 4

The Polarization of Politics

2) Evidence of the Culture War

Back 4

2) We were in a culture war of red vs. blue but Obama said in 2004 election that we are all equal. We are not as different as people say we are. It all depends on how you look at the data. For the most part, the U.S. isn't red or blue but more like purple. In blue and red states, the more you get into politics the more polarized politics get. Way to reconcile that we aren't in a culture war or to confirm the polarization of politics is by understanding how involved you are in politics.

Front 5

The 2008 Elections

1) What happened?

Back 5

1) Wave Election- a particular president candidate does well in about every aspect (Obama vs Kerry).
Obama did worse with union households, age 65+, and gays and lesbians. He did better with new voters, hispanics, and youth.
The youth voter turnout increased; voted the same way they did in 1964, and was disproportionate among the rest of America.

Front 6

The 2008 Elections

2) Why did Obama win?

Back 6

2) -Wave election
-Voter outreach: he reached out and contacted more people
-The divisive primary:
-States that Obama and bush won:
-Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, north Carolina
-Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, north Carolina- the democratic had to leg up b/c Obama and Hillary campaigned so much
-If we look at the states that Obama and Hillary campaigned in exclusively, Obama did 5 percent better.

Front 7

The 2008 Elections

3) Lessons learned

Back 7

3) - Incumbents win
- The accuracy of the polls: Given the difficulties in the polls, the polling was very accurate
- The end of the Bradley Effect
- Barriers were broken down, but at the same time some were constructed: First black president, bans on gay marriage
- Party polarization is still in some effect: The 14 blue states remained blue, every purple state voted for Obama, three red states voted for Obama, showed the fluidity of the electorate
- Democracy works: The people spoke in a big enough voice that affected the outcome of the presidency

Front 8

The Polarization of Politics

1) Polarization since the Reconstruction Era

Back 8

Little polarization at the mass level and huge polarization at the elite level
1) In the time of the New Deal Coalition, the two parties were converging. It wasn't until the 1950s that we got the separation of the parties. From 1973-2004, the parties became more polarized.

Front 9

The Polarization of Politics

2) Explanation for polarization
- Redistricting
- Sorting
- Extremism of party activists
- Procedural change

Back 9

2) - Redistricting:
~Apportionment- the states that lose population lose house seats and the states that gain population gain house seats.
~Redistricting- all congressional districts must have the same amount of people. What we've created are hardcore republican and democratic districts. It's because of the excessive redistricting procedures that there are safe democratic and republican seats.
- Sorting:
~Ideological- the parties started themselves out ideologically, going to the ideological party/groups.
~Geographic- you move into the areas that fit you, thus you have liberal counties surrounded by very conservative counties.
-Party Activists
~When parties start running on issues. It was the activists of the parties that changed. Both parties started running from activists rather than politicians.
- Procedural Change:
~Not much changed in the electorate. What changed is the procedures that changed in Congress. When they made the party bosses, speakers, the majority members were more powerful. Just recognize something was changing in the capitol, and nothing really changed in the electorate.

Front 10

The Polarization of Politics

3) How much increasingly partisan constituencies have polarized the Congress?
4) The frequencies and polarization of the three kinds of votes
5) Procedures

Back 10

3) Less people are conflicted, and do what their parties want them to do. Much more partisan than before. As time progresses, more and more conservative districts become more partisan (liberal).

4) Frequencies:
- Final Passage and Amendment- No change
- Procedural- Greatly increased
Polarization:
- Final Passage and Amendment- Slight increase
- Procedural- Greatly increased

5) Those that establish the ground rules for debate.
-Open rules- anyone can make an amendment at any time.
-Closed rules- form of restrictive rule- no one can make an amendment
-Restrictive rule- only one person can make an amendment

Front 11

Putting it all together and the 111th Congress and the 2010 Elections

1) Lessons from polarization study
2) Leadership in the 111th Congress
3) Prospects for 2010 elections

Back 11

1) Redistricting is not the lone cause of party polarization. Indeed, much of party polarization is a consequence of procedures on the floors of the House and Senate. Party polarization is best understood as a complex situation with lots of causes and implications.

2) The Democratic Leaders: House- Speaker of the House: Pelosi; Assistant: Steny Hoyer
Senate- Harry Reed (Majority Leader); Dick Durbin

The Republican Leaders: House- John Boehnor (Minority Leader); Eric Cantor (Assistant)
Senate- Mitch McConnell (Minority Leader); John Kyle

3) House- For Democrats to lose control, they need to lose 40 seats which is not impossible it has happened four times in the last 60 years.
Senate- Democrats would have to lose 8 seats, happened 1-3 times in last 60 years.

Front 12

What are Gingrich Senators?

Back 12

Most conservative Republicans and are very polarized.