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22 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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The Campaigns/Voters: Who are they and what do they care about?
1) Money in elections: 2) How candidates spend money |
1) Crucial resource. Open seats spend more than incumbents because it's more competitive.
2) 40% spent on staff, 7% on research, and 53% on communications. Half is wasted. |
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The Campaigns/Voters cont'd
3) Campaign strategies for incumbents and challengers 4) Difficulty with studying voters |
3) A: Incumbents need to confront negative challenges brought up (preemption), and remind voters why they voted for them last time (inoculation).
B: Challengers need to convince you to fire incumbent and that they are a worthy successor. 4) 30% of voters lie about whether they voted. Conversion- switch which party they vote for. Replacement- people die and are replaced by 18 year olds. The polls lie. |
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The Voters: What they care about
1) The difficulty in calculating turnout figures 2) The typical voter 3) The most important vote |
1) We do not know how to compute turnouts.
Turnouts= # of voters/ Voting Age Population or Voting Eligible Population or Registration 2) Old people, well educated, rich, high status jobs, women, white, North Central and Pacific mountain states, strong partisans, religious 3) Median Voter Theorem- The most important voter is the one in the middle. |
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The Voters: What they care about cont'd
4) The New Deal Coalition 5) The Democratic and Republican electoral coalitions |
4) Group of voters that FDR was able to get together. Raised rights and taxes. "Southern Strategy"- Strategy Nixon invoked to break the democratic hold on the south
5) Democrats- The poor, labor unions, gays/lesbians, African Americans, Jews, women Republicans- Northeastern, western libertarians, southerners and Catholics (both switched from Democrat) |
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The Youth Voter
1) What happened to the New Deal Coalition? 2) Notes about the youth vote |
1) What did happen? I don't know. :(
2) Since 1960, the youth vote has gone down. Turn out rate is not unique to U.S. Reasons: Youth are moving around a lot, life cycle (think vote doesn't matter), decline in civic duty. |
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The Youth Voter cont'd
3) The learnings of the youth vote 4) What would happen if all 18-21 year-olds voted? |
3) Underlying implicit assumption of the youth vote is that youth are different and decisive. Implications that youth vote at the same rate. Not universally liberal or conservative on issues.
4) I don't know. There would be a huge turnout? |
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The Voters: What they do
1) How UT students compare to other students 2) The state of American citizenship |
1) UT students are a little bit more libertarian
2) Not voting in greater percentages, largely disaffected by politics, people don't trust government, people don't have confidence in elected officials, people are less engaged in politics, people are ignorant and are easily manipulated |
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The Voters: What they do cont'd
3) Three qualifications for the state of American citizenship 4) How the people can still do their job 5) What doesn't work |
3) It is not uniquely an American problem, Not uniquely a political problem, we still have a deep commitment to democratic principles
4) A) Neither party has a monopoly on knowledge B) Americans are pretty sophisticated. With a bit of info we can do smart things C) Every now and then we get active and engaged in the process D) Conducting Audits- MOC are afraid to vote a certain way because they're fearful of being audited by the public E) MOC have our potential preferences in mind. F) Police patrols and fire alarms 5) Reforms???? |
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Political Parties
1) Historical derivation 2) Their legal status today 3) Philosophical derivation |
1) Constitution does not mention parties; thought political parties were wrong and bad- avenues by which violence was done.
Henry Clay bought off his political rivals and people who were loyal to him became the wig party. Jay Treaty- Washington didn't like parties, so his party split into factions that liked and disliked the Jay Treaty. Federalists and anti-federalists. 2) Political parties are a private association. Restriction of membership, own rules. Political parties nominate candidates and abide by laws, which tie them down to the government. 3) 2x2 chart of whether to snitch or not. It is in their best interest to snitch, but it is the worst case if they both snitch. |
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Political Parties cont'd
4) Three levels of parties in the U.S. 5) The decline of party organizations |
4) A) Parties as organizations- responsible for conventions, platforms, caucuses and primaries, and sponsor debates.
B) Parties in the electorate- merely voters C) Parties in the gov- elected officials 5) Spoil systems- the victor put his friends in positions of power The Pendleton Act- forbids political assessments; cannot appoint someone to position of power unless they pass civil services exam. Progressive era- set of new reforms; Australian ballot; Non-partisan elections; candidates stand as individuals; direct primaries |
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The Role of Political Parties in Elections
1) The services that parties can provide to candidates 2) Sources of party money for congressional candidates 3) The importance of party money |
1) Money, public relations opportunities, organization, parties act as labels, polling, opposition research, fund raising lists, high profile visits, GOTV
2)Hill Committees- direct contribution. They spend money on the candidates behalf without coordination with the candidate; National Committees; State and local parties; Other candidates; Political Action Committees 3) ??????? |
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The Role of Political Parties in Elections cont'd
4) The difference between split ticket voting and split results 5) How presidents do on election day (and two years later) |
4) Split ticket- vote for one party on the national level and another on the congressional level.
Split results- senate votes and popular votes are different. 5) When elected the president picks up on average 12 seats and on midterm they lose on average 22. |
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The Role of Political Parties in Elections cont'd
6) Explanations for midterm loss 7) How else presidents can influence elections |
6) Surge and decline- people surge to polls and two years later, they don't vote because they're only interested every four years.
Coalition of the Pissed-off- regardless of who wins, both candidates promise the world but they can't always fulfill those promises, and some people get mad and don't vote for him next time 7) Go to particular jurisdiction; can promise policy favors; can promise political favors |
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Elections in a Historical Context
1) Four kinds of elections 2) Characteristics of Realigning Elections |
1) A) Critical elections- certain type of politics being practiced by certain party
B) Gradual Realignment- happens over a series of elections C) Maintain election- endorsement of the status quo. No big change. D) Deviating election- democrats in power and practicing politics, then all the sudden republicans take power. Mini critical election. 2) Voter turnout and concern is high; Tension within parties is usually high and presence of 3rd party that tries to steal that tension; New cleavages in issues and creates new issues; National issues are paramount; Elections bring about major policy changes; Unified power of the party for 14 years; Occur in regular intervals, between 30 and 38 years. |
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Elections in a Historical Context cont'd
3) The five critical elections 4) Why no critical elections since 1932? |
3) 1800- Federalists were kicked out
1828- Adams and Clay make bargain. Whigs against democrats, whigs win a couple times and elect two generals 1860- Lincoln elected and republicans control 1896- McKinley elected, raised 10 times more, republicans 1932- FDR elected, promise of New Deal, democrats 4) Vietnam, Johnson lied and decided not to run for re-election; Waterloo; Bill Clinton; Gingrich; Bush/Iraq War; Entered the modern age. |
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Evaluating Elections
1) The cyclical nature of critical elections 2) Factors used to predict election outcomes |
1) 2x2 table
Presidents that opposed the status while public wanted change: Reconstruction presidents- Lincoln, FDR, Jefferson, Jackson Presidents that opposed the status quo while public wanted stability: Preemption presidents- Clinton, Wilson Presidents that affiliated with status quo while public wanted change: Disjunction presidents- John Adams, G.W. Bush? Presidents that affiliated with status quo while public wanted stability: Articulation presidents- LB Johnson, Monroe, Madison 2) Incumbents performance/presidential approval; mood of the electorate; state of the economy; other major issues |
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Recent Elections and Al Smith Dinner
1) Al Smith Dinner 2) 1958 3) 1974 |
1) McCain first spoke, then Obama, and then the Cardinal
2) 1958- Candidates start running on the incumbency cue rather than the partisan cue. More individual, less group. 3) 1974- Nixon's 6 year itch election comes into play. Democrats more liberal and media-savy. Known as Watergate babies. |
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Recent Elections and Al Smith Dinner cont'd
4) 1980 5) 1992 6) 1994 |
4) 1980- Reagan wins enough seats to make the Senate republican. First election were a conservative person articulates a conservative action and wins.
5) 1992- Year of the women. Clinton's first election, democrats lost seats, but still won. Increased number of African Americans, Hispanics, and women in the house. 6) 1994- Republican Revolution. First time republicans won both House and Senate. Contract with America. |
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Recent Congressional Elections
1) 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006 election returns |
1) 2000- Impeachment trial was negative to both parties. Democrats picked up 4 seats in senate, and led to a chamber that was equally divided. Came up with Power Sharing agreement for the 50/50 divide. 9/11 increased Bush's popularity.
2002- Republicans pick up 6 house and 2 senate seats, regaining majority in senate. 2004- Involvement in Iraq. Turnout was 60%. Kerry and Bush GOTV. Bush wins with 3%. Republicans gained 2 seats in house and 3 in senate. 2006- Bush's 6 year itch election. 40% turnout. Democrats equivalent to Republicans 1994. Democrats pick up 28 seats in house and 6 in senate, giving them one extra seat in senate. |
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Recent Congressional Elections cont'd
2) How trendy were the recent elections? 3) How to predict the elections |
2) Quality challengers did better than challengers who hadn't held office before. Quality challengers did better with more money. Incumbency advantage was even stronger than before. Electorate was less divided. Turnout is expected to decrease.
3) Fixed and long term factors are most important; gives us a range to look at. 1. Midterm election or not (fixed) 2. Look at party registration numbers (long) 3. Incumbent approval rating (medium) 4. Economy (medium) |
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Theriault's Thoughts on the Presidential Election
1) The 8 key factors |
1) 1. Registration
2. Money 3. Bradley Effect- because of racism, people say they will vote for the African American candidate, but they get scared at the polls and don't 4. Most important issue: -Economy -Foreign Policy and terrorism 5. October surprise 6. Enthusiasm 7. Youth Voting 8. Surrogates- people who go around promoting the candidate |
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Theriault's Thoughts on the Presidential Election cont'd
2) The current polls 3) The reliability of the current polls |
2) Current spread: 7.6 to Obama
Biggest Obama margin: 8.2 (10/14) Biggest McCain margin: 2.9 3) ???? |
