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15 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Security Dilemma
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Theory type
States are concerned with own SECURITY Key variables- States' feelings of security, actions taken, intention War most/least likely when? Most likely war: Unbalanced MP, Least likely war: BP and UP Authors Waltz, Mersheimer Good fit cases- US missile defense shield Bad fit cases |
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Balance of Power
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Theory type Stucture
Key variables Bandwagoning or Buckpassing, International system War most/least likely when? Unbalanced MP vs. BP UP Authors Mearsheimer, Waltz Good fit cases: WWI, WWII, Cold War Bad fit cases: Nukes maintain peace, MAD |
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Hegemonic War
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Theory type power, human nature, desire
Key variables Power in international system, status quo and hegemons War most/least likely when? Uneven growths of power, changing status quo Authors Gilpin Good fit cases Peloponesian War Bad fit cases Nukes change nature of war |
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Economic Interdependence
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Theory type: International System Power
Key variables:Free trade as barrier to war War most/least likely when?: Free trade leads to peace, econ shortages can lead to war Authors Levy Good fit cases WWII Bad fit cases |
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Offense/Defense Balance
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Theory type: Misperception
Key variables: Perception of balance War most/least likely when?:When offense is dominant, seen as easy Authors: Van Evra, Snyder Good fit cases: WWI Bad fit cases |
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Deterrence model
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Theory Type: Misperception
Key Variables: War most/least likely when: When state appeases a state that is benign and makes it aggressive. Authors:Jervis Good fit cases: Bad fit cases: |
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Spiral Model
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Theory Type: Mispercepton
Key Variables: War most/least likely when: Threats lead to escalation by enemy, which leads to own escalation. Authors:Jervis Good fit cases: Bad fit cases: |
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Rationalist
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Theory Type: Individual misperception
Key Variables: War is rational sometimes War most/least likely when: 1. Private info, 2. commitment problems 3. Issue indivisibility Authors:Fearon Good fit cases:Israel- Palestine Bad fit cases: |
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Democratic Peace
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Theory Type: Government Type matters
Key Variables: Demo vs. Non-demo War most/least likely when: most likely at inception of democracy Authors:Mansfield/Snyder Good fit cases:Latin America Bad fit cases: |
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Scapegoat
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Theory Type:States fight to rally internal support
Key Variables:Stability of regime War most/least likely when: Most likely in terms of internal unrest, successful wars make regime look good Authors: Good fit cases: Clinton Bad fit cases: No correlation b/w fragile gov and warlike behavior |
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Overexpansion Myths
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Theory Type:
Key Variables: Idea that over expansion leads to war War most/least likely when: States feel that expansion is neccesarry to survive/ create an empire/ get more vital sites Authors:Snyder Good fit cases:Japan prior to WWII, Germany WWI Bad fit cases: |
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Cult of the Offensive
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Theory Type: Offensive strategy suits the needs of military better than defense
Key Variables:Brings in domestic factors War most/least likely when: War makes military seem important, when leaders think war will be quick and easy Authors:Van Evra, Snyder Good fit cases:WWI Bad fit cases:Sagan: Offense necessary of alliances, and it almost worked. |
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Bureaucratic Politics
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Theory Type: War results not from the leader but from the bureaucracy
Key Variables: Inflexibility of Standard Operating Procedures, career officials War most/least likely when:Each bureaucracy has different missions, capabilities and influence. Classes within gov, not rational decisions. Authors: Good fit cases: Bad fit cases: |
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Non-evaluation
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Theory Type: Bad evaluation leads to no accountability, unclear goals
Key Variables:Secrecy, Nationalism, perceptions of strengths/weaknesses War most/least likely when:Least likely when: Good university system, ind academics, marketplace of ideas (kaufmann) >better evaluation. Secrecy leads to war Authors:Van Evra Good fit cases:Post WWI Germany, US in Iraq, Japan, Israel Bad fit cases: |
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Cognitive Limitations (bias)
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Theory Type:Human nature is one-sdied
Key Variables:Hawks vs. Doves War most/least likely when:Leaders tend to be hawks, aggressive Authors:Kahneman and Renshon, Jervis Good fit cases: Jervis: States overestimate their own, underestimate enemy Bad fit cases: |
