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12 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
The Market Force of Trend means the average Claim Cost trend from all types of private payers of health benefits.
Fee-for-service trend > Market Force of Trend Capitation trend < Market Force of Trend |
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How to Analyze Trend
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Traditional way: split it into
Utilization trend Cost-per-service trend According to this chapter, the two components are: the Market Force of Trend (macroeconomic factors) Company-specific factors (microeconomic factors). |
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ECONOMIC ISSUES IN TREND ANALYSIS
(“Components of the Market Force of Trend”) (“Factors Affecting the Level of Consumption of Health Care”) These are 3 ways of asking for the Macroeconomic Factors. |
Demographic changes (aging)
Wealth Inflation physician supply cost-shifting proportion of specialty physicians Managed Care’s effects |
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FACTORS THAT AFFECT A COMPANY’S OBSERVED TREND
These are the Microeconomic Factors. |
Antiselection
Makes a plan’s trend > underlying cost trend ph’s optimize their financial situation disproportionately high claim costs within a given demographic cell Antiselection does not include actual changes in the demographic mix. Cost-Shifting Reduced or negotiated payments by HMO’s causes one-time decrease in cpy’s trend followed by a recovery due to fee raises (negation) unless growth occurs in the line of business subject to discount. Risk Shifting immunizes the MCO to the market force of trend but providers raise fees to negate this. one-time effect, again. Managed Care Initiatives (Interventions) UM implementation causes one-time drop in trend. Benefit Design and Leveraging policies with deductibles, and stop loss policies, cause leveraging. causes observed trend to be > market force of trend Type of Service Inpatient vs. outpatient Pharmacy trends lower than medical Random Fluctuations significant for small blocks use linear regression to remove the random component. See numerical examples in chapter notes. |
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EXTERNAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION – PUBLIC MEASURES OF MEDICAL COST TRENDS
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Medicare Reports
Advantages: history of Medicare claim costs Disadv: eligibility / legislative changes distort the data National Health Expenditure portion of the GDP Advantages: None Disadv: slow publication – out of date. HCI (Health Cost Index) and Medical CPI Advantages: Up to date; widely used Disadvs: Underweights hosp/phys; overweights vision/dental Based on billed charges – discounts not reflected. Trend Surveys (Compiled by consultants) Advantages: Easy to obtain Disadv: Statistical rigor varies purpose varies |
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Considerations in using External Data Sources:
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source of the data
objective of the data differences between the different external sources |
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Advantages of Comparing Claims to an External Benchmark
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notice company-specific anomalies faster
Shows the trend being experienced by competitors |
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THE DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO ANALYZING CLAIM COST TRENDS
Techniques not using external data (non-causal models) |
“Historical Averages and Graphs”
1. Graph cpy’s and competitors’ data 2. Use judgment to project trends. Disadvantages: Subjective Projected trend depends heavily on recent results Leads to the typical 6-year underwriting cycle. “Actuarial Model” This is the method we used in SN 202 1. Split PMPM costs into U and C 2. split by type of service, type of contract, etc. 3. Project forward based on “known impacts” Advantage: Greater level of detail Disadvantages: Result is still mostly based on historical experience. Judgment is still used Linear Regression (Applied to Historical Experience) Advantage: removes random fluctuations Disadvantage: also removes seasonality. Time Series – ARIMA models Only good for short-term projections. |
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A technique using external data (Causal Model)
(Promoted by this chapter) |
1. Gather leading macroeconomic indicators
2. Assume these indicators are a proxy for the market force of trend. 3. Collect historical data. 4. Determine the correlation between historic data and the indicators by graphing. 5. Use linear regression to predict costs = f(indicators). Recommendations: Include the following variables: HCI Managed Care interventions Seasonality Deviation Years |
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DIFFICULTIES IN MEASURING CLAIM COST TREND
(Common Problems In Trend Analysis) |
Practical difficulties
Lack of data, models, staff Competitive considerations limit ability raise rates even if justified Data difficulties Separating components: Price trends & Utilization Macroeconomic & microeconomic factors observed trend and Market Force of Trend due to Antisel, Cost-shifting, Leveraging, Risk-transfer, etc. one-time vs. ongoing trends (catastrophic claims) Pulse outliers; level shifts real vs. random fluctuation immature claims data Changes in claim payment speeds distort reserves Changing Demographics Changing data systems and products terminations / new sales make data incomparable Choosing the length to analyze: A 12-month moving-average is stable, but less responsive; A 3-month average is responsive, but volatile. |
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THE IMPACT OF MANAGED CARE ON THE FORCE OF TREND
(Changes in Trend Analysis under Managed Care) The MCO must consider: |
Competitivity
One-time anomalies, such as: catastrophic claims enrollment shifts interventions; e.g. UM program implementation stricter claims adjudication & processing changes change in underwriting Must separate capitations from Ffs payments |
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LONG-TERM MEDICAL TREND ANALYSIS
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Needed for: employers’ retiree benefits, Medicare, LTC
Considerations in analyzing long-term trend: COLA guarantees, historical trends vs. GDP, aging of the population Done. |