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10 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Collective Statistical Illiteracy
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Widespread inability to understand the meaning of numbers
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3 main points in the monograph
(describes statistical illiteracy |
damage it does to health/emotion
its potential causes its prevention |
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Absolute risk vs natural frequencies?
What types to media reports use? what types are preferred? |
Absolute: increased 1 in every 7,000 (preferred)
relative risk: 100% increase (meadia use this) |
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Conditional probabilities vs natural frequencies?
which is easier to understand? |
Conditional probabilitei include sensitivity and the false-pos rate
Natural frequencies displays a more transparent. easier to read/understand representation of the info |
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Define positive predictive value
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Probability screening test actually means that a person has a specific disease
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Survival vs. Mortality rates?
Lead team bias? over-diagnosing bias? |
Survival: # till alive/ total # originally dx
Mortality: # ppl dead over 1 yr/total # in group Lead time bias: time of Dx effects survival rate Over-diagnosing Bias: ppl diagnosed w/ non-progressive cancers warp survival statistics **Mortality rates recommend bc they never change change |
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4 questions we should ask ab all risks?
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Risk of WHAT? (understand the outcome to which risk refers)
Time frame? (understand the time the risk refers to) How big? (no zero risks-size matters) Does it apply to me? (check to see weather info is based on studies of ppl like you) |
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4 questions we should always ask ab Risk?
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What is the risk?
Time frame? How big? does it apply to me? |
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potential harms of screening tests?
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cost. inconvenience, false alarms, *over-diagnosis
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ppl are likely to have favorable evaluation of tx when benefits are described in what terms?
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Relative risk reduction
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