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31 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
- 3rd side (hint)
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Random Sample |
Individuals selected from larger population |
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Probability Sampling |
simple random sampling |
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Stratified sampling- |
divide population into subgroups and randomly assign sample from those subgroups |
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Non-Prob. Sampling- 1) |
Convenience Sampling- Individuals who are readily available & easily accessible |
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Snowball Sampling- |
seek referrals from participants for potential participants |
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Random Assignment |
Assigned to groups |
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The Achilles’ Heel of Human Cognition |
Probabilistic Reasoning Probabilistic trend, more than likely but not in all cases. Probabilistic prediction is numerical, therefore abstract |
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“Person-Who” Statistics |
The ubiquitous “person who” is usually acted out when we are confronted with hard statistical evidence that contradicts a previously held belief. |
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Probabilistic Reasoning and the Misunderstanding of Psychology |
The prediction of outcomes based on group characteristics is often called aggregate or actuarial prediction |
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Psychological Research on Probabilistic Reasoning |
A good way to start developing the skill of PR thinking is to become aware of the most common fallacies that arise when people reason statistically. |
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Insufficient Use of Probabilistic Information |
Cognitive illusions: people know the correct answer, but they are drawn to an incorrect conclusion by the structure of the problem. |
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Failure to Use Sample Size Information |
A small sample size is likely to deviate from the population value. Smaller samples generate more extreme values |
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The Gambler’s Fallacy |
The tendency for people to see links between events in the past and events in the future when the two are independent |
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The Role of Chance in Psychology |
Emphasize how people misunderstand the contribution of research to clinical practice because of failure to appreciate how thoroughly the concept of chance is integrated within psychological theory. |
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The Tendency to Try to Explain Chance Events |
The principle of the outcome is not indeterminate, just indeterminable. |
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Explaining Chance |
Illusory Correlation and the Illusion of Control |
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Illusion of control- |
the tendency to believe that personal skill can affect outcomes determined by chance. |
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Just-World Hypothesis |
Just-World Hypothesis Chance in Psychology Before accepting a complicated explanation of an event, consider what part chance may have played in its occurance. |
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Coincidence |
A coincidence is merely an occurrence of related events that are due to chance. Coincidences do not need an explanation |
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Accepting Error in Order to Reduce Error |
Clinical Versus Actuarial Prediction Predicting human behavior with some accuracy often involves accepting error in order to reduce error, getting better prediction by relying on general principles, but acknowledging that we cannot be right in every single case. |
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Actuarial Prediction |
predictions based on group trends derived from statistical records. Clinical predictions do not work. |
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Clinical prediction |
we don’t like to release control so we ignore the regression equation (the actuarial prediction that actually is accurate) and assume we can intuitively know better but our bias gets in the way and influences the way we diagnose and treat so chances that we are wrong are higher than if we just rely on the regression equation in the first place. The regression equation is not swayed by bias. It undermines our whole field if we use clinical prediction instead of actuarial prediction |
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Illusory correlation |
seeing a relationship between two variables when none exists OR see a larger relationship than what is actually there |
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Exploiting chance example |
receive a financial newsletter that says stock A will go up, it goes up; next newsletter says stock B will go up, it goes up; next newsletter says stock C will go down, it goes down. We now assume newsletter is worth purchasing. The reality is that 1st newsletter was sent to 2000 people where half received advice that stock A will rise and 50% receive advice that stock A will fall. Stock A went up so 2nd newsletter only sent to ones who got the correct prediction last time, repeat the 50% get prediction of stock B rising, 50% get prediction of stock B falling. Stock B went up, 3rd newsletter sent only to ones who received correct prediction with 50/50 split again, continue on until have shown potential customers through repetition that they can predict what will happen. If repeat cycle 4 times then the probability of correctly predicting this way is only 6.25%. This does not meet the psychology criteria of reliability (0.5% chance of error) that we use to determine whether or not to go forward with a study |
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Self-serving bias |
tend to overestimate our control so we are not taking into account how chance works. If you understand you can’t control chance then you can better prepare yourself for next time. |
Example: depressed people overestimate the amount of control others have over the world to their own detriment. This is a misrepresentation of how chance works within the world |
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Rock & Hard Place |
People get frustrated when we don’t “answer” their question, or if we do study it and “answer” their question we shatter their beliefs. People get frustrated and try to explain away our findings. |
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Self Help Books- |
the issue of pseudoscience. A few are authored by responsible psychologist for public. Most are presenting new “therapies” designed to correct specific behavioral problems and satisfy general human wants. (Making $, losing weight, having better sex) These so called therapies are rarely based on controlled experimental investigation. Creates the pressure for psychologist to provide a quick/easy solution. People who want an easy solution do not want to work on their problems. How to increase respect for the profession: increased communication between psychologists and the public through self-help books, op ed pieces, direct reporting of results, etc. Don’t let the media spin the stories. |
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Pseudoscience |
a set of ideas based on theories put forth as scientific when they are not scientific Implicit theories of behavior |
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Election polling is an example of directly applied research |
the goal is to predict a specific behavior in a very specific setting. |
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Basic Research |
Research that focuses primarily on theory testing. |
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Applied findings are of use immediately |
nothing so practical as a general and accurate theory |
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